NBA Pipeline — 2026-04-06

NYK @ ATL 2026-04-06T23:00Z

Class E MINIMUM

1 DATA & MATCHUP CARD 11AM ✓ Computed

PROJECTIONS (our math)

Home: ATL | Away: NYK

NYK 110.9 — ATL 110.0

Total: 220.9 | Spread: -0.2 | ML: 50.3%

Pace: 97.2 poss | HCA: +1.1 pts

EFFICIENCY RATINGS
Stat	ATL	NYK	Edge
ORtg	—	—	—
DRtg	—	—	—
NetRtg	—	—	—
Pace	—	—	—
Record	0-0	0-0	—
MOV	-17.5	19.4	NYK -36.9
Consistency	0.00	0.00	0.00
Adj 4 Factors	0.28	0.33	NYK -0.06
FOUR FACTORS (offense)
Stat	ATL	NYK	Edge
eFG%	55.4%	55.7%	NYK -0.003
TOV%	13.8%	13.9%	ATL +0.001
OREB%	29.1%	32.8%	NYK -0.037
FTA Rate	0.234	0.238	NYK -0.004
FOUR FACTORS (defense — lower is better)
Stat	ATL	NYK	Edge
Opp eFG%	54.6%	54.1%	NYK -0.005
Opp TOV%	15.6%	14.7%	ATL +0.009
Opp OREB%	29.8%	28.5%	NYK -0.013
Opp FTA Rate	0.260	0.265	ATL +0.005
MATCHUP DELTAS (off vs opp def)
Stat	ATL	NYK	Edge
eFG Delta	+1.3	+1.2	ATL +0.1
ORB Delta	+0.7	+3.2	NYK -2.5
TOV Delta	-0.9	-1.7	ATL +0.8
FTR Delta	-3.2	-2.2	NYK -1.0
Matchup ORtg	112.7	116.8	NYK -4.1
CLUTCH (last 5 min, margin ≤5)
Stat	ATL	NYK	Edge
Clutch ORtg	109.5	123.5	NYK -14.0
Clutch DRtg	107.4	103.1	NYK -4.3
Clutch NetRtg	+2.2	+20.5	NYK -18.3
HUSTLE
Stat	ATL	NYK	Edge
Deflections	19.9	17.0	ATL +2.9
Loose Balls	4.7	4.5	ATL +0.3
Contested 2PT	27.0	22.4	ATL +4.6
Contested 3PT	16.3	16.3	-0.0
Screen Assists	7.7	6.8	ATL +0.8
Charges Drawn	0.2	0.6	NYK -0.3
REST & FATIGUE
Stat	ATL	NYK	Edge
B2B Win%	25.0%	66.7%	NYK -0.417
1-Day Rest Win%	62.8%	70.0%	NYK -0.072
3+ Day Rest Win%	25.0%	75.0%	NYK -0.500
Rest Advantage	1d / fat 22.74	1d / fat 42.88	+0.6 pts

SHOOTING
Stat	ATL	NYK	Edge
FG%	43.6%	51.7%	NYK -0.081
3PT%	31.2%	40.8%	NYK -0.096
3PT Rate	43.4%	38.4%	ATL +0.051
FG3A/game	36.3	32.1	ATL +4.2
OPPONENT STATS (what defense allows)
Stat	ATL	NYK	Edge
Opp PPG	116.0	110.1	NYK -5.9
Opp FG%	47.4%	46.0%	NYK -0.014
Opp 3P%	35.5%	36.2%	ATL +0.007
Opp TOV	16.1	14.4	ATL +1.7
HOME/AWAY SPLITS
Stat	ATL	NYK	Edge
Home ORtg	115.4	120.8	NYK -5.4
Home DRtg	111.6	110.5	NYK -1.1
Home NetRtg	+3.8	+10.3	NYK -6.5
Road ORtg	114.7	116.4	NYK -1.7
Road NetRtg	+0.5	+2.4	NYK -1.9
RECENT FORM
Stat	ATL	NYK	Edge
L5 ORtg	117.5	120.0	NYK -2.5
L5 DRtg	114.1	108.7	NYK -5.4
L5 NetRtg	+3.4	+11.3	NYK -7.9
L10 ORtg	117.9	119.7	NYK -1.8
L10 NetRtg	+5.5	+2.5	ATL +3.0
Sagarin Overall	92.04	99.32	NYK -7.28
Sagarin Predictor	92.24	99.62	NYK -7.38
Sagarin Strong Recent	92.30	101.62	NYK -9.32
Sag Trend (Recent-Pred)	+0.06	+2.00	NYK -1.94
DRatings Overall	0.21	0.63	NYK -0.42
DRatings Inference	0.23	0.90	NYK -0.67
DR Trend (Inf-Overall)	+0.02	+0.27	NYK -0.25
VARIANCE & BLOWOUTS
Stat	ATL	NYK	Edge
Margin Std Dev	19.9	17.4	ATL +2.6
Skewness	-0.99	0.56	—
Kurtosis	-5.13	-3.97	—
Blowout Win%	0.0%	50.0%	NYK -0.5
Blowout Loss%	50.0%	0.0%	NYK -0.5

2 RESEARCH INTEL 5PM 8 alerts

3 BLIND ANALYSIS T-30 3 markets

Market	Sonnet	Gemini	gpt-oss
ML	—	—	—
Spread	—	—	—
Total	—	—	—

4 COMPARISON Classified

Market	Sonnet	Gemini	gpt-oss	Math	Kalshi	Pinnacle	Class
ML	—	—	—	—	—	—	Class E
Spread	—	—	—	—	—	—	Class E
Total	—	—	—	—	—	—	Class E

5 OPUS VERDICT Pending

6 RESULT Awaiting

DET @ ORL 2026-04-06T23:00Z

Class E MINIMUM

1 DATA & MATCHUP CARD 11AM ✓ Computed

PROJECTIONS (our math)

Home: ORL | Away: DET

DET 111.8 — ORL 103.6

Total: 215.4 | Spread: +7.2 | ML: 38.9%

Pace: 97.1 poss | HCA: +0.9 pts

EFFICIENCY RATINGS
Stat	ORL	DET	Edge
ORtg	—	—	—
DRtg	—	—	—
NetRtg	—	—	—
Pace	—	—	—
Record	0-0	0-0	—
MOV	-4.7	2.7	DET -7.4
Consistency	0.00	0.00	0.00
Adj 4 Factors	0.36	0.25	ORL +0.10
FOUR FACTORS (offense)
Stat	ORL	DET	Edge
eFG%	53.1%	54.6%	DET -0.015
TOV%	14.0%	15.1%	ORL +0.011
OREB%	30.6%	35.4%	DET -0.048
FTA Rate	0.311	0.292	ORL +0.019
FOUR FACTORS (defense — lower is better)
Stat	ORL	DET	Edge
Opp eFG%	54.5%	51.7%	DET -0.028
Opp TOV%	14.7%	16.8%	DET -0.021
Opp OREB%	29.0%	31.1%	ORL +0.021
Opp FTA Rate	0.285	0.319	ORL +0.034
MATCHUP DELTAS (off vs opp def)
Stat	ORL	DET	Edge
eFG Delta	+1.2	-0.1	ORL +1.3
ORB Delta	-0.6	+6.2	DET -6.8
TOV Delta	-2.9	+0.5	DET -3.4
FTR Delta	-0.9	+0.5	DET -1.4
Matchup ORtg	107.9	116.2	DET -8.3
CLUTCH (last 5 min, margin ≤5)
Stat	ORL	DET	Edge
Clutch ORtg	107.3	111.2	DET -3.9
Clutch DRtg	106.0	102.1	DET -3.9
Clutch NetRtg	+1.3	+9.1	DET -7.8
HUSTLE
Stat	ORL	DET	Edge
Deflections	16.9	20.5	DET -3.6
Loose Balls	4.2	5.5	DET -1.3
Contested 2PT	25.5	26.0	DET -0.4
Contested 3PT	15.2	16.4	DET -1.2
Screen Assists	7.2	7.0	ORL +0.2
Charges Drawn	0.3	0.2	ORL +0.1
REST & FATIGUE
Stat	ORL	DET	Edge
B2B Win%	100.0%	100.0%	0.000
1-Day Rest Win%	51.2%	66.7%	DET -0.155
3+ Day Rest Win%	50.0%	80.0%	DET -0.300
Rest Advantage	0d / fat 59.26	1d / fat 30.73	-0.9 pts

SHOOTING
Stat	ORL	DET	Edge
FG%	39.7%	45.0%	DET -0.053
3PT%	32.8%	35.6%	DET -0.028
3PT Rate	40.8%	34.2%	ORL +0.065
FG3A/game	34.0	28.6	ORL +5.4
OPPONENT STATS (what defense allows)
Stat	ORL	DET	Edge
Opp PPG	115.1	109.6	DET -5.5
Opp FG%	47.6%	44.3%	DET -0.033
Opp 3P%	35.3%	34.5%	DET -0.008
Opp TOV	14.9	16.9	DET -2.0
HOME/AWAY SPLITS
Stat	ORL	DET	Edge
Home ORtg	115.0	117.4	DET -2.4
Home DRtg	113.4	106.6	DET -6.8
Home NetRtg	+1.6	+10.8	DET -9.2
Road ORtg	113.5	117.1	DET -3.6
Road NetRtg	+0.1	+5.9	DET -5.8
RECENT FORM
Stat	ORL	DET	Edge
L5 ORtg	115.5	124.9	DET -9.4
L5 DRtg	105.6	111.6	ORL +6.0
L5 NetRtg	+10.0	+13.3	DET -3.3
L10 ORtg	111.8	120.1	DET -8.3
L10 NetRtg	-0.3	+12.3	DET -12.6
Sagarin Overall	91.88	96.95	DET -5.07
Sagarin Predictor	91.61	97.04	DET -5.43
Sagarin Strong Recent	92.03	96.84	DET -4.81
Sag Trend (Recent-Pred)	+0.42	-0.20	ORL +0.62
DRatings Overall	0.17	0.62	DET -0.45
DRatings Inference	0.18	0.77	DET -0.59
DR Trend (Inf-Overall)	+0.01	+0.15	DET -0.13
VARIANCE & BLOWOUTS
Stat	ORL	DET	Edge
Margin Std Dev	13.0	11.4	ORL +1.6
Skewness	0.01	0.28	—
Kurtosis	-4.92	-3.83	—
Blowout Win%	0.0%	16.7%	DET -0.2
Blowout Loss%	28.6%	0.0%	DET -0.3
QUARTER SCORING
Stat	ORL	DET	Edge
Q1 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q2 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q3 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q4 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q4 vs Q1 Delta	0.0	0.0	—

2 RESEARCH INTEL 5PM 14 alerts

Detroit Pistons: **Detroit Pistons Injury Report vs. Orlando Magic (04/06/2026, 7:00 PM ET)**[[1]](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/referee/injury/Injury-Report_2026-04-06_04_15PM.pdf)

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Ruled Out: Ruled Out

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Isaac Jones: - Isaac Jones (G League - Two-Way)[[1]](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/referee/injury/Injury-Report_2026-04-06_04_15PM.pdf)

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Bobi Klintman: - Bobi Klintman (G League - On Assignment)[[1]](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/referee/injury/Injury-Report_2026-04-06_04_15PM.pdf)

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Wendell Moore Jr.: - Wendell Moore Jr. (G League - Two-Way)[[1]](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/referee/injury/Injury-Report_2026-04-06_04_15PM.pdf)

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

LJ Cryer: **LJ Cryer (Golden State Warriors PG, not Detroit Pistons):[[1]](https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/4433149/lj-cryer)[[2]](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/referee/injury/Injury-Report_2026-04-06_04_15PM.pdf)

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

LJ Cryer: - No LJ Cryer on DET roster or injury report.[[3]](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/injuries/_/name/det/detroit-pistons)[[2]](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/referee/injury/Injury-Report_2026-04-06_04_15PM.pdf)

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

LJ Cryer: **GSW vs SAC Tonight (10:00 PM ET):**

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

LJ Cryer: Probable

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

LJ Cryer: **DET @ ORL Tonight (7:00 PM ET):**

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Stephen Curry: **No, Stephen Curry is not playing tonight (April 6, 2026).**[[1]](https://wikihoops.com/games/2026-04-06?ref=calendar)[[2]](https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2026_games-april.html)

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Stephen Curry: - **Golden State Warriors schedule**: No game on April 6. Last game: Loss to Houston Rockets (117-116) on April 5, where Curry returned from 27-game knee injury absence and scored 29 points.[[3]](https://www.nba.com/game/hou-vs-gsw-0022501142)[[4]](https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/2026

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Stephen Curry: probable

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Stephen Curry: out

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

3 BLIND ANALYSIS T-30 3 markets

Market	Sonnet	Gemini	gpt-oss
ML	—	—	—
Spread	—	—	—
Total	—	—	—

4 COMPARISON Classified

Market	Sonnet	Gemini	gpt-oss	Math	Kalshi	Pinnacle	Class
ML	—	—	—	—	—	—	Class E
Spread	—	—	—	—	—	—	Class E
Total	—	—	—	—	—	—	Class E

5 OPUS VERDICT Pending

6 RESULT Awaiting

CLE @ MEM 2026-04-07T00:00Z

Class E MINIMUM

1 DATA & MATCHUP CARD 11AM ✓ Computed

PROJECTIONS (our math)

Home: MEM | Away: CLE

CLE 117.4 — MEM 93.9

Total: 211.3 | Spread: +22.0 | ML: 20.2%

Pace: 98.0 poss | HCA: +1.5 pts

EFFICIENCY RATINGS
Stat	MEM	CLE	Edge
ORtg	—	—	—
DRtg	—	—	—
NetRtg	—	—	—
Pace	—	—	—
Record	0-0	0-0	—
MOV	-6.0	1.0	CLE -7.0
Consistency	14.80	0.00	MEM +14.80
Adj 4 Factors	0.17	0.36	CLE -0.19
FOUR FACTORS (offense)
Stat	MEM	CLE	Edge
eFG%	53.3%	56.1%	CLE -0.028
TOV%	14.8%	13.8%	CLE -0.010
OREB%	30.1%	30.7%	CLE -0.006
FTA Rate	0.251	0.265	CLE -0.014
FOUR FACTORS (defense — lower is better)
Stat	MEM	CLE	Edge
Opp eFG%	56.2%	54.3%	CLE -0.019
Opp TOV%	15.2%	14.9%	MEM +0.003
Opp OREB%	33.7%	30.8%	CLE -0.029
Opp FTA Rate	0.262	0.263	MEM +0.001
MATCHUP DELTAS (off vs opp def)
Stat	MEM	CLE	Edge
eFG Delta	-0.8	+0.1	CLE -0.9
ORB Delta	-0.3	-3.1	MEM +2.8
TOV Delta	-0.1	-1.6	MEM +1.5
FTR Delta	-0.9	+0.1	CLE -1.0
Matchup ORtg	112.1	121.2	CLE -9.1
CLUTCH (last 5 min, margin ≤5)
Stat	MEM	CLE	Edge
Clutch ORtg	97.1	116.9	CLE -19.8
Clutch DRtg	114.0	102.4	CLE -11.6
Clutch NetRtg	-16.9	+14.5	CLE -31.4
HUSTLE
Stat	MEM	CLE	Edge
Deflections	17.8	19.1	CLE -1.3
Loose Balls	4.5	4.5	-0.0
Contested 2PT	24.5	25.8	CLE -1.3
Contested 3PT	16.7	15.3	MEM +1.4
Screen Assists	6.4	7.4	CLE -1.0
Charges Drawn	0.2	0.2	MEM +0.1
REST & FATIGUE
Stat	MEM	CLE	Edge
B2B Win%	0.0%	66.7%	CLE -0.667
1-Day Rest Win%	35.7%	71.4%	CLE -0.357
3+ Day Rest Win%	50.0%	40.0%	MEM +0.100
Rest Advantage	1d / fat 16.68	1d / fat 50.09	+1.0 pts

SHOOTING
Stat	MEM	CLE	Edge
FG%	45.6%	46.8%	CLE -0.011
3PT%	35.3%	34.2%	MEM +0.011
3PT Rate	43.6%	45.8%	CLE -0.022
FG3A/game	39.5	37.6	MEM +1.9
OPPONENT STATS (what defense allows)
Stat	MEM	CLE	Edge
Opp PPG	120.7	115.4	CLE -5.3
Opp FG%	48.5%	46.4%	CLE -0.021
Opp 3P%	36.4%	37.2%	MEM +0.008
Opp TOV	15.5	15.0	MEM +0.5
HOME/AWAY SPLITS
Stat	MEM	CLE	Edge
Home ORtg	113.9	118.3	CLE -4.4
Home DRtg	117.8	114.0	CLE -3.8
Home NetRtg	-3.9	+4.3	CLE -8.2
Road ORtg	110.7	118.3	CLE -7.6
Road NetRtg	-8.6	+4.0	CLE -12.6
RECENT FORM
Stat	MEM	CLE	Edge
L5 ORtg	106.2	120.4	CLE -14.2
L5 DRtg	130.3	116.1	CLE -14.2
L5 NetRtg	-24.1	+4.3	CLE -28.4
L10 ORtg	108.0	120.0	CLE -12.0
L10 NetRtg	-19.7	+2.8	CLE -22.5
Sagarin Overall	81.64	94.80	CLE -13.16
Sagarin Predictor	81.78	94.60	CLE -12.82
Sagarin Strong Recent	76.68	94.72	CLE -18.04
Sag Trend (Recent-Pred)	-5.10	+0.12	CLE -5.22
DRatings Overall	-0.81	0.51	CLE -1.32
DRatings Inference	-1.04	0.53	CLE -1.57
DR Trend (Inf-Overall)	-0.23	+0.02	CLE -0.26
VARIANCE & BLOWOUTS
Stat	MEM	CLE	Edge
Margin Std Dev	15.2	10.8	MEM +4.4
Skewness	0.18	-0.91	—
Kurtosis	-3.07	-3.68	—
Blowout Win%	9.8%	0.0%	MEM +0.1
Blowout Loss%	26.8%	8.3%	CLE -0.2
QUARTER SCORING
Stat	MEM	CLE	Edge
Q1 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q2 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q3 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q4 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q4 vs Q1 Delta	0.0	0.0	—

2 RESEARCH INTEL 5PM 15 alerts

Memphis Grizzlies: **Memphis Grizzlies vs. Cleveland Cavaliers (8:00 PM ET, April 6, 2026)**[[1]](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/referee/injury/Injury-Report_2026-04-06_04_30PM.pdf)[[2]](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/referee/injury/Injury-Report_2026-04-06_02_15PM.pdf)

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Injury Report: **Official NBA Injury Report (4:30 PM ET latest)**[[1]](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/referee/injury/Injury-Report_2026-04-06_04_30PM.pdf)

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Ruled Out: Ruled Out

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Santi Aldama: - Santi Aldama: Right Knee; Surgery Recovery[[1]](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/referee/injury/Injury-Report_2026-04-06_04_30PM.pdf)

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Kentavious Caldwell: - Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: Right 5th Finger; Surgery Recovery[[1]](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/referee/injury/Injury-Report_2026-04-06_04_30PM.pdf)

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Cleveland Cavaliers: **Cleveland Cavaliers (CLE @ MEM, Apr 6, 2026; Official NBA Injury Report 4:15 PM ET)[[1]](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/referee/injury/Injury-Report_2026-04-06_04_15PM.pdf)[[2]](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/referee/injury/Injury-Report_2026-04-06_03_00PM.pdf)**

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Ruled Out: Ruled Out

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Donovan Mitchell: - Donovan Mitchell: Right Ankle; Sprain

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

James Harden: - James Harden: Personal Reasons

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Max Strus: - Max Strus: Left Foot; Injury Management

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Marvin Bagley III: **Marvin Bagley III Status Update (April 6, 2026):**

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Marvin Bagley III: - **Current Team**: Dallas Mavericks (not Cleveland Cavaliers).[[1]](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/referee/injury/Injury-Report_2026-04-06_04_30PM.pdf)[[2]](https://www.rotowire.com/basketball/player/marvin-bagley-4397)[[3]](https://www.nba.com/player/1628963/marvin-bagley-iii)

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Marvin Bagley III: - **CLE Game (CLE @ MEM, 8:00 ET)**: Not on Cavaliers roster or injury report.[[1]](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/referee/injury/Injury-Report_2026-04-06_04_30PM.pdf)[[4]](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/referee/injury/Injury-Report_2026-04-06_04_15PM.pdf)

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Marvin Bagley III: Questionable

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Marvin Bagley III: - **Recent**: Played April 5 vs. Lakers (9 pts, 4 reb).[[2]](https://www.rotowire.com/basketball/player/marvin-bagley-4397)

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

3 BLIND ANALYSIS T-30 3 markets

Market	Sonnet	Gemini	gpt-oss
ML	—	—	—
Spread	—	—	—
Total	—	—	—

4 COMPARISON Classified

Market	Sonnet	Gemini	gpt-oss	Math	Kalshi	Pinnacle	Class
ML	—	—	—	—	—	—	Class E
Spread	—	—	—	—	—	—	Class E
Total	—	—	—	—	—	—	Class E

5 OPUS VERDICT Pending

6 RESULT Awaiting

PHI @ SAS 2026-04-07T00:00Z

Class E MINIMUM

1 DATA & MATCHUP CARD 11AM ✓ Computed

PROJECTIONS (our math)

Home: SAS | Away: PHI

PHI 80.4 — SAS 101.3

Total: 181.7 | Spread: -20.7 | ML: 78.5%

Pace: 97.5 poss | HCA: -0.2 pts

EFFICIENCY RATINGS
Stat	SAS	PHI	Edge
ORtg	—	—	—
DRtg	—	—	—
NetRtg	—	—	—
Pace	—	—	—
Record	0-0	0-0	—
MOV	12.9	-9.9	SAS +22.8
Consistency	0.00	0.00	0.00
Adj 4 Factors	0.32	0.33	PHI -0.01
FOUR FACTORS (offense)
Stat	SAS	PHI	Edge
eFG%	55.9%	53.0%	SAS +0.029
TOV%	13.3%	13.4%	SAS +0.001
OREB%	30.6%	30.6%	0.000
FTA Rate	0.274	0.275	PHI -0.001
FOUR FACTORS (defense — lower is better)
Stat	SAS	PHI	Edge
Opp eFG%	52.2%	54.1%	SAS +0.019
Opp TOV%	12.8%	15.2%	PHI -0.024
Opp OREB%	27.6%	32.2%	SAS +0.046
Opp FTA Rate	0.228	0.270	SAS +0.042
MATCHUP DELTAS (off vs opp def)
Stat	SAS	PHI	Edge
eFG Delta	+1.6	+1.0	SAS +0.6
ORB Delta	-1.9	+3.4	PHI -5.3
TOV Delta	-1.8	+0.6	PHI -2.4
FTR Delta	+0.4	+4.7	PHI -4.3
Matchup ORtg	118.8	110.2	SAS +8.6
CLUTCH (last 5 min, margin ≤5)
Stat	SAS	PHI	Edge
Clutch ORtg	122.6	115.2	SAS +7.4
Clutch DRtg	114.4	98.6	PHI -15.8
Clutch NetRtg	+8.3	+16.6	PHI -8.3
HUSTLE
Stat	SAS	PHI	Edge
Deflections	15.7	20.5	PHI -4.8
Loose Balls	4.1	4.7	PHI -0.7
Contested 2PT	27.6	24.6	SAS +2.9
Contested 3PT	14.8	15.6	PHI -0.8
Screen Assists	8.1	7.1	SAS +0.9
Charges Drawn	0.3	0.2	+0.0
REST & FATIGUE
Stat	SAS	PHI	Edge
B2B Win%	80.0%	50.0%	SAS +0.300
1-Day Rest Win%	82.5%	51.4%	SAS +0.311
3+ Day Rest Win%	100.0%	75.0%	SAS +0.250
Rest Advantage	0d / fat 70.00	0d / fat 55.34	-0.4 pts

SHOOTING
Stat	SAS	PHI	Edge
FG%	48.4%	44.8%	SAS +0.036
3PT%	37.3%	33.8%	SAS +0.035
3PT Rate	37.3%	39.5%	PHI -0.022
FG3A/game	31.9	32.8	PHI -0.9
OPPONENT STATS (what defense allows)
Stat	SAS	PHI	Edge
Opp PPG	111.5	116.1	SAS +4.6
Opp FG%	45.1%	46.7%	SAS +0.016
Opp 3P%	35.2%	35.3%	SAS +0.001
Opp TOV	13.0	15.4	PHI -2.4
HOME/AWAY SPLITS
Stat	SAS	PHI	Edge
Home ORtg	120.0	113.6	SAS +6.4
Home DRtg	111.6	114.8	SAS +3.2
Home NetRtg	+8.4	-1.2	SAS +9.6
Road ORtg	117.9	115.0	SAS +2.9
Road NetRtg	+8.4	+0.9	SAS +7.5
RECENT FORM
Stat	SAS	PHI	Edge
L5 ORtg	121.4	105.4	SAS +16.0
L5 DRtg	116.2	108.6	PHI -7.6
L5 NetRtg	+5.2	-3.2	SAS +8.4
L10 ORtg	123.1	116.0	SAS +7.1
L10 NetRtg	+13.2	+3.4	SAS +9.8
Sagarin Overall	100.08	90.20	SAS +9.88
Sagarin Predictor	99.92	89.36	SAS +10.56
Sagarin Strong Recent	102.27	90.93	SAS +11.34
Sag Trend (Recent-Pred)	+2.35	+1.57	SAS +0.78
DRatings Overall	0.89	0.08	SAS +0.81
DRatings Inference	1.13	0.08	SAS +1.06
DR Trend (Inf-Overall)	+0.25	+0.00	SAS +0.25
VARIANCE & BLOWOUTS
Stat	SAS	PHI	Edge
Margin Std Dev	14.2	20.9	PHI -6.7
Skewness	0.36	-0.06	—
Kurtosis	-3.97	-3.95	—
Blowout Win%	40.0%	9.1%	SAS +0.3
Blowout Loss%	0.0%	36.4%	SAS +0.4

2 RESEARCH INTEL 5PM 15 alerts

San Antonio: **San Antonio Spurs (SAS) Injury Report vs. PHI - April 6, 2026 (NBA Official Report 4:30 PM ET):**[[1]](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/referee/injury/Injury-Report_2026-04-06_04_30PM.pdf)

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Ruled Out: Ruled Out

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Harrison Ingram: - Harrison Ingram: G League - Two-Way[[1]](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/referee/injury/Injury-Report_2026-04-06_04_30PM.pdf)

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

David Jones: - David Jones Garcia: Right Ankle; Surgery[[1]](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/referee/injury/Injury-Report_2026-04-06_04_30PM.pdf)

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Emanuel Miller: - Emanuel Miller: G League - Two-Way[[1]](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/referee/injury/Injury-Report_2026-04-06_04_30PM.pdf)

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Bilal Coulibaly: **Bilal Coulibaly (Washington Wizards):[[1]](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/referee/injury/Injury-Report_2026-04-06_04_15PM.pdf)[[2]](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/injuries/_/name/wsh/washington-wizards)**

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Bilal Coulibaly: - **Tonight (April 6, 2026)**: No Wizards game scheduled.[[1]](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/referee/injury/Injury-Report_2026-04-06_04_15PM.pdf)[[3]](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/schedule/_/name/wsh)[[4]](https://seatgeek.com/washington-wizards-tickets/schedule)

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Bilal Coulibaly: - **Next Game**: April 7 vs. Chicago Bulls (7:00 PM ET).[[1]](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/referee/injury/Injury-Report_2026-04-06_04_15PM.pdf)

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Bilal Coulibaly: Questionable

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Bilal Coulibaly: Ruled out

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Injury Report: **Philadelphia 76ers @ Spurs - April 6, 2026 Injury Report**[[1]](https://www.nba.com/sixers/news/philadelphia-76ers-at-san-antonio-spurs-04-06-2026)[[2]](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/injuries/_/name/phi/philadelphia-76ers)

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

PHI update: Out

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Johni Broome: - Johni Broome (PF): Right knee; surgery recovery[[1]](https://www.nba.com/sixers/news/philadelphia-76ers-at-san-antonio-spurs-04-06-2026)[[2]](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/injuries/_/name/phi/philadelphia-76ers)[[3]](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/referee/injury/Injury-Report_2026-04-06_01_45PM.pdf

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Cameron Payne: - Cameron Payne (PG): Right hamstring strain (re-eval ~2 weeks)[[1]](https://www.nba.com/sixers/news/philadelphia-76ers-at-san-antonio-spurs-04-06-2026)[[2]](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/injuries/_/name/phi/philadelphia-76ers)

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

PHI update: **Available (noted injuries):**

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

3 BLIND ANALYSIS T-30 3 markets

Market	Sonnet	Gemini	gpt-oss
ML	—	—	—
Spread	—	—	—
Total	—	—	—

4 COMPARISON Classified

Market	Sonnet	Gemini	gpt-oss	Math	Kalshi	Pinnacle	Class
ML	—	—	—	—	—	—	Class E
Spread	—	—	—	—	—	—	Class E
Total	—	—	—	—	—	—	Class E

5 OPUS VERDICT Pending

6 RESULT Awaiting

POR @ DEN 2026-04-07T01:00Z

Class E MINIMUM

1 DATA & MATCHUP CARD 11AM ✓ Computed

PROJECTIONS (our math)

Home: DEN | Away: POR

POR 109.6 — DEN 108.7

Total: 218.3 | Spread: +0.7 | ML: 48.9%

Pace: 97.6 poss | HCA: +0.3 pts

EFFICIENCY RATINGS
Stat	DEN	POR	Edge
ORtg	—	—	—
DRtg	—	—	—
NetRtg	—	—	—
Pace	—	—	—
Record	0-0	0-0	—
MOV	-4.5	-12.4	DEN +7.9
Consistency	0.00	0.00	0.00
Adj 4 Factors	0.36	0.25	DEN +0.11
FOUR FACTORS (offense)
Stat	DEN	POR	Edge
eFG%	57.7%	53.4%	DEN +0.043
TOV%	12.8%	16.9%	DEN +0.041
OREB%	28.6%	35.4%	POR -0.068
FTA Rate	0.294	0.280	DEN +0.014
FOUR FACTORS (defense — lower is better)
Stat	DEN	POR	Edge
Opp eFG%	54.3%	54.1%	POR -0.002
Opp TOV%	11.7%	15.3%	POR -0.036
Opp OREB%	28.3%	31.2%	DEN +0.029
Opp FTA Rate	0.254	0.272	DEN +0.018
MATCHUP DELTAS (off vs opp def)
Stat	DEN	POR	Edge
eFG Delta	+3.4	-1.0	DEN +4.4
ORB Delta	-3.0	+7.0	POR -10.0
TOV Delta	-2.5	+5.3	POR -7.8
FTR Delta	+2.5	+2.6	POR -0.1
Matchup ORtg	119.6	114.2	DEN +5.4
CLUTCH (last 5 min, margin ≤5)
Stat	DEN	POR	Edge
Clutch ORtg	117.4	111.1	DEN +6.3
Clutch DRtg	120.6	115.0	POR -5.6
Clutch NetRtg	-3.2	-4.0	DEN +0.8
HUSTLE
Stat	DEN	POR	Edge
Deflections	14.4	16.7	POR -2.3
Loose Balls	3.5	4.0	POR -0.5
Contested 2PT	22.0	26.2	POR -4.2
Contested 3PT	14.9	14.8	DEN +0.1
Screen Assists	8.7	5.6	DEN +3.2
Charges Drawn	0.3	0.4	POR -0.1
REST & FATIGUE
Stat	DEN	POR	Edge
B2B Win%	50.0%	33.3%	DEN +0.167
1-Day Rest Win%	67.6%	47.6%	DEN +0.200
3+ Day Rest Win%	33.3%	28.6%	DEN +0.047
Rest Advantage	1d / fat 17.71	0d / fat 52.53	+1.0 pts

SHOOTING
Stat	DEN	POR	Edge
FG%	43.6%	40.3%	DEN +0.033
3PT%	31.1%	30.2%	DEN +0.009
3PT Rate	38.6%	43.2%	POR -0.046
FG3A/game	32.2	38.4	POR -6.2
OPPONENT STATS (what defense allows)
Stat	DEN	POR	Edge
Opp PPG	116.9	115.8	POR -1.1
Opp FG%	46.8%	47.1%	DEN +0.003
Opp 3P%	34.9%	35.8%	DEN +0.009
Opp TOV	11.8	15.6	POR -3.8
HOME/AWAY SPLITS
Stat	DEN	POR	Edge
Home ORtg	120.7	115.6	DEN +5.1
Home DRtg	115.1	112.4	POR -2.7
Home NetRtg	+5.7	+3.2	DEN +2.5
Road ORtg	121.7	110.6	DEN +11.1
Road NetRtg	+4.7	-4.0	DEN +8.7
RECENT FORM
Stat	DEN	POR	Edge
L5 ORtg	128.7	117.6	DEN +11.1
L5 DRtg	117.5	112.6	POR -4.9
L5 NetRtg	+11.1	+4.9	DEN +6.2
L10 ORtg	128.0	117.6	DEN +10.4
L10 NetRtg	+10.6	+13.0	POR -2.4
Sagarin Overall	94.92	90.63	DEN +4.29
Sagarin Predictor	95.08	90.28	DEN +4.80
Sagarin Strong Recent	93.75	93.12	DEN +0.63
Sag Trend (Recent-Pred)	-1.33	+2.84	POR -4.17
DRatings Overall	0.49	0.06	DEN +0.43
DRatings Inference	0.57	0.05	DEN +0.52
DR Trend (Inf-Overall)	+0.08	-0.01	DEN +0.10
VARIANCE & BLOWOUTS
Stat	DEN	POR	Edge
Margin Std Dev	13.1	9.4	DEN +3.7
Skewness	0.58	1.36	—
Kurtosis	-5.55	-5.98	—
Blowout Win%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0
Blowout Loss%	33.3%	40.0%	DEN +0.1
QUARTER SCORING
Stat	DEN	POR	Edge
Q1 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q2 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q3 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q4 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q4 vs Q1 Delta	0.0	0.0	—

2 RESEARCH INTEL 5PM 18 alerts

Denver Nuggets: **Denver Nuggets Injury Report vs. Portland Trail Blazers (04/06/2026) - Official NBA Report (04:30 PM ET)**[[1]](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/referee/injury/Injury-Report_2026-04-06_04_30PM.pdf)[[2]](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/referee/injury/Injury-Report_2026-04-06_03_00PM.pdf)

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

DEN update: Out

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Peyton Watson: - Peyton Watson: Right Hamstring; Strain[[1]](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/referee/injury/Injury-Report_2026-04-06_04_30PM.pdf)

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Spencer Jones: - Spencer Jones: Right Hamstring; Strain[[1]](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/referee/injury/Injury-Report_2026-04-06_04_30PM.pdf)

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

DEN update: Questionable

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Tobias Harris: **Tobias Harris Current Team:** Detroit Pistons (not Denver Nuggets).[[1]](https://www.nba.com/player/202699/tobias-harris)[[2]](https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/6440/tobias-harris)[[3]](https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/harrito02.html)

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Tobias Harris: Doubtful

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Tobias Harris: Questionable

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Tobias Harris: **No Denver Nuggets connection:** Harris not on DEN roster; DEN injury report mentions others (e.g., Zeke Nnaji, hip).[[9]](https://dknetwork.draftkings.com/2026/04/05/tobias-harris-headlines-todays-nba-injury-report-monday-4-6-26-2)

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Caris LeVert: **Caris LeVert (Detroit Pistons)**

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Caris LeVert: Questionable

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Caris LeVert: - **Tonight's Game**: Pistons vs. Orlando Magic (April 6, 2026).[[4]](https://x.com/i/status/2041205118469599738)[[5]](https://x.com/i/status/2041204667363844421)

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Caris LeVert: No Denver Nuggets association found in current reports.[[6]](https://www.nba.com/player/1627747/caris-levert)

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Portland Trail: **Portland Trail Blazers @ Denver Nuggets (2026-04-06, 9:00 PM ET)**[[1]](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/referee/injury/Injury-Report_2026-04-06_04_15PM.pdf)[[2]](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/referee/injury/Injury-Report_2026-04-06_01_00PM.pdf)

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Ruled Out: Ruled Out

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Jerami Grant: out

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Vit Krejci: out

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

Damian Lillard: out

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-06 21:08:38

3 BLIND ANALYSIS T-30 3 markets

Market	Sonnet	Gemini	gpt-oss
ML	—	—	—
Spread	—	—	—
Total	—	—	—

4 COMPARISON Classified

Market	Sonnet	Gemini	gpt-oss	Math	Kalshi	Pinnacle	Class
ML	—	—	—	—	—	—	Class E
Spread	—	—	—	—	—	—	Class E
Total	—	—	—	—	—	—	Class E

5 OPUS VERDICT Pending

6 RESULT Awaiting