MMA Pipeline — 2026-04-27

DET @ ORL 2026-04-28T00:00:00Z

1 DATA & MATCHUP CARD 11AM ✓ Computed

PROJECTIONS (our math)

Home: ORL | Away: DET

DET 109.9 — ORL 105.3

Total: 215.2 | Spread: +3.8 | ML: 44.1%

Pace: 97.2 poss | HCA: +0.8 pts

EFFICIENCY RATINGS
Stat	ORL	DET	Edge
ORtg	—	—	—
DRtg	—	—	—
NetRtg	—	—	—
Pace	—	—	—
Record	0-0	0-0	—
MOV	-4.7	2.7	DET -7.4
Consistency	0.00	0.00	0.00
Adj 4 Factors	0.36	0.25	ORL +0.10
FOUR FACTORS (offense)
Stat	ORL	DET	Edge
eFG%	53.1%	54.6%	DET -0.015
TOV%	14.0%	15.1%	ORL +0.011
OREB%	30.6%	35.4%	DET -0.048
FTA Rate	0.311	0.292	ORL +0.019
FOUR FACTORS (defense — lower is better)
Stat	ORL	DET	Edge
Opp eFG%	54.5%	51.7%	DET -0.028
Opp TOV%	14.7%	16.8%	DET -0.021
Opp OREB%	29.0%	31.1%	ORL +0.021
Opp FTA Rate	0.285	0.319	ORL +0.034
MATCHUP DELTAS (off vs opp def)
Stat	ORL	DET	Edge
eFG Delta	+1.4	+0.1	ORL +1.3
ORB Delta	-0.5	+6.4	DET -6.9
TOV Delta	-2.8	+0.4	DET -3.2
FTR Delta	-0.8	+0.7	DET -1.5
Matchup ORtg	108.4	116.2	DET -7.8
CLUTCH (last 5 min, margin ≤5)
Stat	ORL	DET	Edge
Clutch ORtg	107.3	111.2	DET -3.9
Clutch DRtg	106.0	102.1	DET -3.9
Clutch NetRtg	+1.3	+9.1	DET -7.8
HUSTLE
Stat	ORL	DET	Edge
Deflections	16.9	20.5	DET -3.6
Loose Balls	4.2	5.5	DET -1.3
Contested 2PT	25.5	26.0	DET -0.4
Contested 3PT	15.2	16.4	DET -1.2
Screen Assists	7.2	7.0	ORL +0.2
Charges Drawn	0.3	0.2	ORL +0.1
REST & FATIGUE
Stat	ORL	DET	Edge
B2B Win%	100.0%	100.0%	0.000
1-Day Rest Win%	51.2%	66.7%	DET -0.155
3+ Day Rest Win%	50.0%	80.0%	DET -0.300
Rest Advantage	2d / fat 0.00	2d / fat 0.00	0.0 pts

SHOOTING
Stat	ORL	DET	Edge
FG%	39.7%	45.0%	DET -0.053
3PT%	32.8%	35.6%	DET -0.028
3PT Rate	40.8%	34.2%	ORL +0.065
FG3A/game	34.0	28.6	ORL +5.4
OPPONENT STATS (what defense allows)
Stat	ORL	DET	Edge
Opp PPG	115.1	109.6	DET -5.5
Opp FG%	47.6%	44.3%	DET -0.033
Opp 3P%	35.3%	34.5%	DET -0.008
Opp TOV	14.9	16.9	DET -2.0
HOME/AWAY SPLITS
Stat	ORL	DET	Edge
Home ORtg	115.0	117.4	DET -2.4
Home DRtg	113.4	106.6	DET -6.8
Home NetRtg	+1.6	+10.8	DET -9.2
Road ORtg	113.5	117.1	DET -3.6
Road NetRtg	+0.1	+5.9	DET -5.8
RECENT FORM
Stat	ORL	DET	Edge
L5 ORtg	115.5	124.9	DET -9.4
L5 DRtg	105.6	111.6	ORL +6.0
L5 NetRtg	+10.0	+13.3	DET -3.3
L10 ORtg	111.8	120.1	DET -8.3
L10 NetRtg	-0.3	+12.3	DET -12.6
Sagarin Overall	91.88	96.95	DET -5.07
Sagarin Predictor	91.61	97.04	DET -5.43
Sagarin Strong Recent	92.03	96.84	DET -4.81
Sag Trend (Recent-Pred)	+0.42	-0.20	ORL +0.62
DRatings Overall	0.17	0.62	DET -0.45
DRatings Inference	0.18	0.77	DET -0.59
DR Trend (Inf-Overall)	+0.01	+0.15	DET -0.13
VARIANCE & BLOWOUTS
Stat	ORL	DET	Edge
Margin Std Dev	13.0	11.4	ORL +1.6
Skewness	0.01	0.28	—
Kurtosis	-4.92	-3.83	—
Blowout Win%	0.0%	16.7%	DET -0.2
Blowout Loss%	28.6%	0.0%	DET -0.3
QUARTER SCORING
Stat	ORL	DET	Edge
Q1 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q2 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q3 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q4 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q4 vs Q1 Delta	0.0	0.0	—

2 RESEARCH INTEL 5PM 9 alerts

3 BLIND ANALYSIS T-30 Pending

4 COMPARISON Pending

5 OPUS VERDICT Pending

6 RESULT Awaiting

OKC @ PHX 2026-04-28T01:30:00Z

1 DATA & MATCHUP CARD 11AM ✓ Computed

PROJECTIONS (our math)

Home: PHX | Away: OKC

OKC 110.0 — PHX 102.0

Total: 212.0 | Spread: +5.8 | ML: 41.1%

Pace: 96.3 poss | HCA: +2.2 pts

EFFICIENCY RATINGS
Stat	PHX	OKC	Edge
ORtg	—	—	—
DRtg	—	—	—
NetRtg	—	—	—
Pace	—	—	—
Record	0-0	0-0	—
MOV	-17.3	16.7	OKC -34.0
Consistency	0.00	0.00	0.00
Adj 4 Factors	0.22	0.25	OKC -0.02
FOUR FACTORS (offense)
Stat	PHX	OKC	Edge
eFG%	53.7%	56.1%	OKC -0.024
TOV%	14.7%	12.4%	OKC -0.023
OREB%	33.1%	26.4%	PHX +0.067
FTA Rate	0.225	0.261	OKC -0.036
FOUR FACTORS (defense — lower is better)
Stat	PHX	OKC	Edge
Opp eFG%	54.1%	51.9%	OKC -0.022
Opp TOV%	16.5%	16.5%	0.000
Opp OREB%	32.3%	30.3%	OKC -0.020
Opp FTA Rate	0.276	0.248	OKC -0.028
MATCHUP DELTAS (off vs opp def)
Stat	PHX	OKC	Edge
eFG Delta	+1.8	+2.0	OKC -0.2
ORB Delta	+2.8	-5.9	PHX +8.7
TOV Delta	-1.8	-4.1	PHX +2.3
FTR Delta	-2.3	-1.5	OKC -0.8
Matchup ORtg	106.0	115.8	OKC -9.8
CLUTCH (last 5 min, margin ≤5)
Stat	PHX	OKC	Edge
Clutch ORtg	104.0	124.5	OKC -20.5
Clutch DRtg	112.4	100.7	OKC -11.7
Clutch NetRtg	-8.4	+23.8	OKC -32.2
HUSTLE
Stat	PHX	OKC	Edge
Deflections	20.3	20.7	OKC -0.5
Loose Balls	4.6	4.5	PHX +0.1
Contested 2PT	21.1	27.3	OKC -6.2
Contested 3PT	14.0	19.0	OKC -4.9
Screen Assists	8.4	8.2	PHX +0.2
Charges Drawn	0.2	0.5	OKC -0.3
REST & FATIGUE
Stat	PHX	OKC	Edge
B2B Win%	33.3%	33.3%	0.000
1-Day Rest Win%	60.5%	83.3%	OKC -0.228
3+ Day Rest Win%	57.1%	100.0%	OKC -0.429
Rest Advantage	1d / fat 10.00	1d / fat 10.00	0.0 pts

SHOOTING
Stat	PHX	OKC	Edge
FG%	44.6%	51.0%	OKC -0.064
3PT%	34.0%	38.4%	OKC -0.044
3PT Rate	43.5%	41.8%	PHX +0.017
FG3A/game	37.5	36.5	PHX +1.0
OPPONENT STATS (what defense allows)
Stat	PHX	OKC	Edge
Opp PPG	111.1	107.9	OKC -3.2
Opp FG%	47.0%	43.7%	OKC -0.033
Opp 3P%	34.7%	36.9%	PHX +0.022
Opp TOV	16.3	16.7	OKC -0.4
HOME/AWAY SPLITS
Stat	PHX	OKC	Edge
Home ORtg	114.7	117.5	OKC -2.8
Home DRtg	111.1	105.8	OKC -5.3
Home NetRtg	+3.6	+11.7	OKC -8.1
Road ORtg	113.8	118.1	OKC -4.3
Road NetRtg	-0.8	+10.8	OKC -11.6
RECENT FORM
Stat	PHX	OKC	Edge
L5 ORtg	113.1	120.7	OKC -7.6
L5 DRtg	111.3	112.9	PHX +1.6
L5 NetRtg	+1.7	+7.8	OKC -6.1
L10 ORtg	116.4	120.7	OKC -4.3
L10 NetRtg	+3.3	+10.8	OKC -7.5
Sagarin Overall	90.56	101.77	OKC -11.21
Sagarin Predictor	90.61	101.87	OKC -11.26
Sagarin Strong Recent	89.88	102.36	OKC -12.48
Sag Trend (Recent-Pred)	-0.73	+0.49	OKC -1.22
DRatings Overall	0.12	1.05	OKC -0.93
DRatings Inference	0.17	1.15	OKC -0.98
DR Trend (Inf-Overall)	+0.05	+0.10	OKC -0.05
VARIANCE & BLOWOUTS
Stat	PHX	OKC	Edge
Margin Std Dev	15.7	9.3	PHX +6.3
Skewness	-0.42	1.01	—
Kurtosis	-3.07	-4.12	—
Blowout Win%	19.5%	50.0%	OKC -0.3
Blowout Loss%	17.1%	0.0%	OKC -0.2
QUARTER SCORING
Stat	PHX	OKC	Edge
Q1 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q2 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q3 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q4 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q4 vs Q1 Delta	0.0	0.0	—

2 RESEARCH INTEL 5PM 12 alerts

Phoenix Suns: **Phoenix Suns Injury Report - Game 4 vs. Thunder (April 27, 2026)**[[1]](https://www.espn.com/nba/game/_/gameId/401869373/thunder-suns)[[2]](https://okcthunderwire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/thunder/2026/04/27/full-injury-report-for-mondays-thunder-vs-suns-game-4-matchup/89814643007)[[3]](https:

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-27 21:02:31

Mark Williams: OUT

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-27 21:02:31

Jordan Goodwin: QUESTIONABLE

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-27 21:02:31

PHX update: ruled out

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-27 21:02:31

Suns Game: **OKC Thunder vs. Suns Game 4 Injury Report (April 27, 2026)**[[1]](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/referee/injury/Injury-Report_2026-04-27_03_00PM.pdf)[[2]](https://okcthunderwire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/thunder/2026/04/27/full-injury-report-for-mondays-thunder-vs-suns-game-4-matchup/8981464300

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-27 21:02:31

Ruled Out: Ruled Out

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-27 21:02:31

Jalen Williams: - Jalen Williams (G/SF): Left hamstring strain.[[1]](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/referee/injury/Injury-Report_2026-04-27_03_00PM.pdf)[[2]](https://okcthunderwire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nba/thunder/2026/04/27/full-injury-report-for-mondays-thunder-vs-suns-game-4-matchup/89814643007)[[3]](https:/

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-27 21:02:31

Thomas Sorber: out

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-27 21:02:31

OKC update: **Notes:**

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-27 21:02:31

Jordan Goodwin: **Jordan Goodwin (Phoenix Suns, not OKC Thunder):**

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-27 21:02:31

Jordan Goodwin: Questionable

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-27 21:02:31

Jordan Goodwin: Out

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-27 21:02:31

3 BLIND ANALYSIS T-30 Pending

4 COMPARISON Pending

5 OPUS VERDICT Pending

6 RESULT Awaiting

MIN @ DEN 2026-04-28T02:30:00Z

1 DATA & MATCHUP CARD 11AM ✓ Computed

PROJECTIONS (our math)

Home: DEN | Away: MIN

MIN 113.9 — DEN 116.0

Total: 229.9 | Spread: -2.5 | ML: 54.0%

Pace: 97.5 poss | HCA: +0.5 pts

EFFICIENCY RATINGS
Stat	DEN	MIN	Edge
ORtg	—	—	—
DRtg	—	—	—
NetRtg	—	—	—
Pace	—	—	—
Record	0-0	0-0	—
MOV	-4.5	-3.6	MIN -0.9
Consistency	0.00	0.00	0.00
Adj 4 Factors	0.36	0.28	DEN +0.08
FOUR FACTORS (offense)
Stat	DEN	MIN	Edge
eFG%	57.7%	55.9%	DEN +0.018
TOV%	12.8%	14.5%	DEN +0.017
OREB%	28.6%	30.2%	MIN -0.016
FTA Rate	0.294	0.285	DEN +0.009
FOUR FACTORS (defense — lower is better)
Stat	DEN	MIN	Edge
Opp eFG%	54.3%	52.9%	MIN -0.014
Opp TOV%	11.7%	14.7%	MIN -0.030
Opp OREB%	28.3%	30.9%	DEN +0.026
Opp FTA Rate	0.254	0.282	DEN +0.028
MATCHUP DELTAS (off vs opp def)
Stat	DEN	MIN	Edge
eFG Delta	+4.8	+1.6	DEN +3.2
ORB Delta	-2.3	+1.9	MIN -4.2
TOV Delta	-1.9	+2.8	MIN -4.7
FTR Delta	+1.2	+3.1	MIN -1.9
Matchup ORtg	119.0	116.9	DEN +2.1
CLUTCH (last 5 min, margin ≤5)
Stat	DEN	MIN	Edge
Clutch ORtg	117.4	108.4	DEN +9.0
Clutch DRtg	120.6	109.5	MIN -11.1
Clutch NetRtg	-3.2	-1.2	MIN -2.0
HUSTLE
Stat	DEN	MIN	Edge
Deflections	14.4	17.0	MIN -2.6
Loose Balls	3.5	4.3	MIN -0.8
Contested 2PT	22.0	27.2	MIN -5.2
Contested 3PT	14.9	15.0	-0.0
Screen Assists	8.7	7.1	DEN +1.7
Charges Drawn	0.3	0.1	DEN +0.2
REST & FATIGUE
Stat	DEN	MIN	Edge
B2B Win%	50.0%	42.9%	DEN +0.071
1-Day Rest Win%	67.6%	59.0%	DEN +0.086
3+ Day Rest Win%	33.3%	100.0%	MIN -0.667
Rest Advantage	0d / fat 38.49	0d / fat 38.49	0.0 pts

SHOOTING
Stat	DEN	MIN	Edge
FG%	43.6%	44.3%	MIN -0.007
3PT%	31.1%	33.5%	MIN -0.024
3PT Rate	38.6%	34.4%	DEN +0.042
FG3A/game	32.2	30.9	DEN +1.3
OPPONENT STATS (what defense allows)
Stat	DEN	MIN	Edge
Opp PPG	116.9	114.6	MIN -2.3
Opp FG%	46.8%	46.2%	MIN -0.006
Opp 3P%	34.9%	35.5%	DEN +0.006
Opp TOV	11.8	15.0	MIN -3.2
HOME/AWAY SPLITS
Stat	DEN	MIN	Edge
Home ORtg	120.7	112.7	DEN +8.0
Home DRtg	115.1	109.0	MIN -6.1
Home NetRtg	+5.7	+3.6	DEN +2.1
Road ORtg	121.7	118.5	DEN +3.2
Road NetRtg	+4.7	+2.6	DEN +2.1
RECENT FORM
Stat	DEN	MIN	Edge
L5 ORtg	128.7	121.6	DEN +7.1
L5 DRtg	117.5	121.3	DEN +3.8
L5 NetRtg	+11.1	+0.3	DEN +10.8
L10 ORtg	128.0	112.3	DEN +15.7
L10 NetRtg	+10.6	-0.6	DEN +11.2
Sagarin Overall	94.92	93.17	DEN +1.75
Sagarin Predictor	95.08	92.94	DEN +2.14
Sagarin Strong Recent	93.75	93.52	DEN +0.23
Sag Trend (Recent-Pred)	-1.33	+0.58	MIN -1.91
DRatings Overall	0.49	0.29	DEN +0.19
DRatings Inference	0.57	0.30	DEN +0.27
DR Trend (Inf-Overall)	+0.08	+0.01	DEN +0.07
VARIANCE & BLOWOUTS
Stat	DEN	MIN	Edge
Margin Std Dev	13.1	17.9	MIN -4.8
Skewness	0.58	-0.78	—
Kurtosis	-5.55	-3.80	—
Blowout Win%	0.0%	18.2%	MIN -0.2
Blowout Loss%	33.3%	18.2%	MIN -0.2
QUARTER SCORING
Stat	DEN	MIN	Edge
Q1 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q2 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q3 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q4 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q4 vs Q1 Delta	0.0	0.0	—

2 RESEARCH INTEL 5PM 12 alerts

Denver Nuggets: **Denver Nuggets Injury Report - April 27, 2026 (Game 5 vs. MIN @ DEN)**[[1]](https://www.nba.com/nuggets/news/nuggets-host-timberwolves-for-game-5)[[2]](https://www.nba.com/game/min-vs-den-0042500165)

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-27 21:02:31

Aaron Gordon: Questionable

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-27 21:02:31

Peyton Watson: Out

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-27 21:02:31

DEN update: ruled out

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-27 21:02:31

Kevin Huerter: **Kevin Huerter Current Team:** Detroit Pistons (traded from Chicago Bulls in February 2026; not on Denver Nuggets).[[1]](https://www.nba.com/news/kevin-huerter-jaden-ivey-trade-2026)[[2]](https://www.nba.com/player/1628989/kevin-huerter)

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-27 21:02:31

Kevin Huerter: **Tonight's Game:** Detroit Pistons vs. Orlando Magic, Eastern Conference First Round Game 4, April 27, 2026, 8:00 PM ET.[[3]](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/referee/injury/Injury-Report_2026-04-27_01_15PM.pdf)

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-27 21:02:31

Kevin Huerter: Questionable

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-27 21:02:31

Minnesota Timberwolves: **Minnesota Timberwolves Injury Report - April 27, 2026 (Game 5 vs. Nuggets)**[[1]](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/referee/injury/Injury-Report_2026-04-27_02_30PM.pdf)[[2]](https://timberwolves.com/news/how-to-watch-timberwolves-nuggets-game-5-nba-playoffs-start-time-injury-report)[[3]](https://www.n

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-27 21:02:31

Ruled Out: Ruled Out

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-27 21:02:31

Anthony Edwards: - Anthony Edwards: Left knee; bone bruise (expected to miss multiple weeks)[[1]](https://ak-static.cms.nba.com/referee/injury/Injury-Report_2026-04-27_02_30PM.pdf)[[3]](https://www.nba.com/game/min-vs-den-0042500165)[[2]](https://timberwolves.com/news/how-to-watch-timberwolves-nuggets-game-5-nba-pla

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-27 21:02:31

Donte Di: out

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-27 21:02:31

MIN update: Game-time Decision

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-27 21:02:31

3 BLIND ANALYSIS T-30 Pending

4 COMPARISON Pending

5 OPUS VERDICT Pending

6 RESULT Awaiting