MMA Pipeline — 2026-04-13

ORL @ BOS 2026-04-12T22:00Z

1 DATA & MATCHUP CARD 11AM ✓ Computed

PROJECTIONS (our math)

Home: BOS | Away: ORL

ORL 105.8 — BOS 108.3

Total: 214.1 | Spread: -2.6 | ML: 54.1%

Pace: 95.1 poss | HCA: +0.1 pts

EFFICIENCY RATINGS
Stat	BOS	ORL	Edge
ORtg	—	—	—
DRtg	—	—	—
NetRtg	—	—	—
Pace	—	—	—
Record	0-0	0-0	—
MOV	2.9	-4.7	BOS +7.6
Consistency	0.00	0.00	0.00
Adj 4 Factors	0.23	0.36	ORL -0.13
FOUR FACTORS (offense)
Stat	BOS	ORL	Edge
eFG%	55.3%	53.1%	BOS +0.022
TOV%	12.9%	14.0%	BOS +0.011
OREB%	33.6%	30.6%	BOS +0.030
FTA Rate	0.207	0.311	ORL -0.104
FOUR FACTORS (defense — lower is better)
Stat	BOS	ORL	Edge
Opp eFG%	52.3%	54.5%	BOS +0.022
Opp TOV%	12.9%	14.7%	ORL -0.018
Opp OREB%	29.0%	29.0%	0.000
Opp FTA Rate	0.245	0.285	BOS +0.040
MATCHUP DELTAS (off vs opp def)
Stat	BOS	ORL	Edge
eFG Delta	+0.8	+0.8	0.0
ORB Delta	+4.6	+1.6	BOS +3.0
TOV Delta	-1.8	+1.1	ORL -2.9
FTR Delta	-7.8	+6.6	ORL -14.4
Matchup ORtg	118.9	111.2	BOS +7.7
CLUTCH (last 5 min, margin ≤5)
Stat	BOS	ORL	Edge
Clutch ORtg	112.9	107.3	BOS +5.6
Clutch DRtg	110.9	106.0	ORL -4.9
Clutch NetRtg	+1.9	+1.3	BOS +0.6
HUSTLE
Stat	BOS	ORL	Edge
Deflections	15.2	16.9	ORL -1.7
Loose Balls	4.0	4.2	ORL -0.2
Contested 2PT	24.1	25.5	ORL -1.4
Contested 3PT	16.4	15.2	BOS +1.2
Screen Assists	9.2	7.2	BOS +2.0
Charges Drawn	0.3	0.3	+0.0
REST & FATIGUE
Stat	BOS	ORL	Edge
B2B Win%	100.0%	100.0%	0.000
1-Day Rest Win%	69.8%	51.2%	BOS +0.186
3+ Day Rest Win%	57.1%	50.0%	BOS +0.071
Rest Advantage	1d / fat 35.54	1d / fat 39.62	+0.1 pts

SHOOTING
Stat	BOS	ORL	Edge
FG%	43.4%	39.7%	BOS +0.037
3PT%	33.8%	32.8%	BOS +0.010
3PT Rate	52.5%	40.8%	BOS +0.118
FG3A/game	46.1	34.0	BOS +12.1
OPPONENT STATS (what defense allows)
Stat	BOS	ORL	Edge
Opp PPG	107.2	115.1	BOS +7.9
Opp FG%	44.2%	47.6%	BOS +0.034
Opp 3P%	35.8%	35.3%	ORL -0.005
Opp TOV	12.4	14.9	ORL -2.5
HOME/AWAY SPLITS
Stat	BOS	ORL	Edge
Home ORtg	119.7	115.0	BOS +4.7
Home DRtg	111.4	113.4	BOS +2.0
Home NetRtg	+8.3	+1.6	BOS +6.7
Road ORtg	120.2	113.5	BOS +6.7
Road NetRtg	+8.2	+0.1	BOS +8.1
RECENT FORM
Stat	BOS	ORL	Edge
L5 ORtg	121.4	115.5	BOS +5.9
L5 DRtg	111.1	105.6	ORL -5.5
L5 NetRtg	+10.3	+10.0	BOS +0.3
L10 ORtg	124.7	111.8	BOS +12.9
L10 NetRtg	+11.7	-0.3	BOS +12.0
Sagarin Overall	96.30	91.88	BOS +4.42
Sagarin Predictor	96.36	91.61	BOS +4.75
Sagarin Strong Recent	97.28	92.03	BOS +5.25
Sag Trend (Recent-Pred)	+0.92	+0.42	BOS +0.50
DRatings Overall	0.58	0.17	BOS +0.41
DRatings Inference	0.68	0.18	BOS +0.50
DR Trend (Inf-Overall)	+0.10	+0.01	BOS +0.09
VARIANCE & BLOWOUTS
Stat	BOS	ORL	Edge
Margin Std Dev	21.4	13.0	BOS +8.4
Skewness	0.77	0.01	—
Kurtosis	-4.85	-4.92	—
Blowout Win%	28.6%	0.0%	BOS +0.3
Blowout Loss%	14.3%	28.6%	BOS +0.1
QUARTER SCORING
Stat	BOS	ORL	Edge
Q1 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q2 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q3 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q4 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q4 vs Q1 Delta	0.0	0.0	—

2 RESEARCH INTEL 5PM 7 alerts

3 BLIND ANALYSIS T-30 Pending

4 COMPARISON Pending

5 OPUS VERDICT Pending

6 RESULT Awaiting

WAS @ CLE 2026-04-12T22:00Z

1 DATA & MATCHUP CARD 11AM ✓ Computed

PROJECTIONS (our math)

Home: CLE | Away: WAS

WAS 105.6 — CLE 116.0

Total: 221.6 | Spread: -10.6 | ML: 66.0%

Pace: 98.5 poss | HCA: +0.1 pts

EFFICIENCY RATINGS
Stat	CLE	WAS	Edge
ORtg	—	—	—
DRtg	—	—	—
NetRtg	—	—	—
Pace	—	—	—
Record	0-0	0-0	—
MOV	1.0	-12.0	CLE +13.0
Consistency	0.00	14.70	WAS -14.70
Adj 4 Factors	0.36	0.25	CLE +0.12
FOUR FACTORS (offense)
Stat	CLE	WAS	Edge
eFG%	56.1%	53.5%	CLE +0.026
TOV%	13.8%	15.2%	CLE +0.014
OREB%	30.7%	28.5%	CLE +0.022
FTA Rate	0.265	0.235	CLE +0.030
FOUR FACTORS (defense — lower is better)
Stat	CLE	WAS	Edge
Opp eFG%	54.3%	56.3%	CLE +0.020
Opp TOV%	14.9%	13.4%	CLE +0.015
Opp OREB%	30.8%	33.6%	CLE +0.028
Opp FTA Rate	0.263	0.292	CLE +0.029
MATCHUP DELTAS (off vs opp def)
Stat	CLE	WAS	Edge
eFG Delta	-0.2	-0.8	CLE +0.6
ORB Delta	-2.9	-2.3	WAS -0.6
TOV Delta	+0.4	+0.3	CLE +0.1
FTR Delta	-2.7	-2.8	CLE +0.1
Matchup ORtg	125.1	109.1	CLE +16.0
CLUTCH (last 5 min, margin ≤5)
Stat	CLE	WAS	Edge
Clutch ORtg	116.9	109.1	CLE +7.8
Clutch DRtg	102.4	120.8	CLE +18.4
Clutch NetRtg	+14.5	-11.7	CLE +26.2
HUSTLE
Stat	CLE	WAS	Edge
Deflections	19.1	17.1	CLE +2.1
Loose Balls	4.5	3.8	CLE +0.7
Contested 2PT	25.8	24.9	CLE +0.9
Contested 3PT	15.3	15.0	CLE +0.3
Screen Assists	7.4	8.2	WAS -0.7
Charges Drawn	0.2	0.4	WAS -0.2
REST & FATIGUE
Stat	CLE	WAS	Edge
B2B Win%	66.7%	33.3%	CLE +0.334
1-Day Rest Win%	71.4%	22.2%	CLE +0.492
3+ Day Rest Win%	40.0%	20.0%	CLE +0.200
Rest Advantage	1d / fat 54.52	1d / fat 37.57	-0.5 pts

SHOOTING
Stat	CLE	WAS	Edge
FG%	46.8%	46.3%	CLE +0.005
3PT%	34.2%	35.9%	WAS -0.017
3PT Rate	45.8%	40.3%	CLE +0.056
FG3A/game	37.6	36.4	CLE +1.2
OPPONENT STATS (what defense allows)
Stat	CLE	WAS	Edge
Opp PPG	115.4	124.9	CLE +9.5
Opp FG%	46.4%	48.8%	CLE +0.024
Opp 3P%	37.2%	36.8%	WAS -0.004
Opp TOV	15.0	13.8	CLE +1.2
HOME/AWAY SPLITS
Stat	CLE	WAS	Edge
Home ORtg	118.3	110.3	CLE +8.0
Home DRtg	114.0	121.1	CLE +7.1
Home NetRtg	+4.3	-10.8	CLE +15.1
Road ORtg	118.3	109.0	CLE +9.3
Road NetRtg	+4.0	-12.8	CLE +16.8
RECENT FORM
Stat	CLE	WAS	Edge
L5 ORtg	120.4	107.1	CLE +13.3
L5 DRtg	116.1	123.4	CLE +7.3
L5 NetRtg	+4.3	-16.2	CLE +20.5
L10 ORtg	120.0	109.5	CLE +10.5
L10 NetRtg	+2.8	-17.4	CLE +20.2
Sagarin Overall	94.80	77.95	CLE +16.85
Sagarin Predictor	94.60	77.89	CLE +16.71
Sagarin Strong Recent	94.72	76.82	CLE +17.90
Sag Trend (Recent-Pred)	+0.12	-1.07	CLE +1.19
DRatings Overall	0.51	-1.06	CLE +1.57
DRatings Inference	0.53	-1.22	CLE +1.75
DR Trend (Inf-Overall)	+0.02	-0.15	CLE +0.17
VARIANCE & BLOWOUTS
Stat	CLE	WAS	Edge
Margin Std Dev	10.8	14.9	WAS -4.2
Skewness	-0.91	0.44	—
Kurtosis	-3.68	-3.08	—
Blowout Win%	0.0%	6.1%	WAS -0.1
Blowout Loss%	8.3%	46.3%	CLE +0.4

2 RESEARCH INTEL 5PM 5 alerts

3 BLIND ANALYSIS T-30 Pending

4 COMPARISON Pending

5 OPUS VERDICT Pending

6 RESULT Awaiting

DET @ IND 2026-04-12T22:00Z

1 DATA & MATCHUP CARD 11AM ✓ Computed

PROJECTIONS (our math)

Home: IND | Away: DET

DET 114.8 — IND 92.0

Total: 206.7 | Spread: +20.5 | ML: 21.7%

Pace: 97.8 poss | HCA: +2.3 pts

EFFICIENCY RATINGS
Stat	IND	DET	Edge
ORtg	—	—	—
DRtg	—	—	—
NetRtg	—	—	—
Pace	—	—	—
Record	0-0	0-0	—
MOV	-8.0	2.7	DET -10.7
Consistency	13.20	0.00	IND +13.20
Adj 4 Factors	0.27	0.25	IND +0.02
FOUR FACTORS (offense)
Stat	IND	DET	Edge
eFG%	53.3%	54.6%	DET -0.013
TOV%	14.2%	15.1%	IND +0.009
OREB%	26.3%	35.4%	DET -0.091
FTA Rate	0.252	0.292	DET -0.040
FOUR FACTORS (defense — lower is better)
Stat	IND	DET	Edge
Opp eFG%	55.6%	51.7%	DET -0.039
Opp TOV%	13.2%	16.8%	DET -0.036
Opp OREB%	30.5%	31.1%	IND +0.006
Opp FTA Rate	0.282	0.319	IND +0.037
MATCHUP DELTAS (off vs opp def)
Stat	IND	DET	Edge
eFG Delta	+1.6	-1.0	IND +2.6
ORB Delta	-4.8	+4.9	DET -9.7
TOV Delta	-2.6	+1.9	DET -4.5
FTR Delta	-6.7	+1.0	DET -7.7
Matchup ORtg	104.3	120.5	DET -16.2
CLUTCH (last 5 min, margin ≤5)
Stat	IND	DET	Edge
Clutch ORtg	96.0	111.2	DET -15.2
Clutch DRtg	107.2	102.1	DET -5.1
Clutch NetRtg	-11.2	+9.1	DET -20.3
HUSTLE
Stat	IND	DET	Edge
Deflections	14.8	20.5	DET -5.7
Loose Balls	4.0	5.5	DET -1.5
Contested 2PT	27.8	26.0	IND +1.9
Contested 3PT	14.3	16.4	DET -2.1
Screen Assists	6.7	7.0	DET -0.3
Charges Drawn	0.3	0.2	IND +0.2
REST & FATIGUE
Stat	IND	DET	Edge
B2B Win%	0.0%	100.0%	DET -1.000
1-Day Rest Win%	28.9%	66.7%	DET -0.378
3+ Day Rest Win%	0.0%	80.0%	DET -0.800
Rest Advantage	1d / fat 33.73	1d / fat 33.39	0.0 pts

SHOOTING
Stat	IND	DET	Edge
FG%	45.8%	45.0%	IND +0.008
3PT%	35.6%	35.6%	0.000
3PT Rate	42.2%	34.2%	IND +0.080
FG3A/game	37.6	28.6	IND +9.0
OPPONENT STATS (what defense allows)
Stat	IND	DET	Edge
Opp PPG	120.4	109.6	DET -10.8
Opp FG%	48.9%	44.3%	DET -0.046
Opp 3P%	35.5%	34.5%	DET -0.010
Opp TOV	13.5	16.9	DET -3.4
HOME/AWAY SPLITS
Stat	IND	DET	Edge
Home ORtg	111.4	117.4	DET -6.0
Home DRtg	116.9	106.6	DET -10.3
Home NetRtg	-5.5	+10.8	DET -16.3
Road ORtg	108.7	117.1	DET -8.4
Road NetRtg	-10.1	+5.9	DET -16.0
RECENT FORM
Stat	IND	DET	Edge
L5 ORtg	106.6	124.9	DET -18.3
L5 DRtg	111.3	111.6	IND +0.3
L5 NetRtg	-4.7	+13.3	DET -18.0
L10 ORtg	114.2	120.1	DET -5.9
L10 NetRtg	-1.5	+12.3	DET -13.8
Sagarin Overall	83.63	96.95	DET -13.32
Sagarin Predictor	83.83	97.04	DET -13.21
Sagarin Strong Recent	84.02	96.84	DET -12.82
Sag Trend (Recent-Pred)	+0.19	-0.20	IND +0.39
DRatings Overall	-0.74	0.62	DET -1.36
DRatings Inference	-0.81	0.77	DET -1.58
DR Trend (Inf-Overall)	-0.07	+0.15	DET -0.21
VARIANCE & BLOWOUTS
Stat	IND	DET	Edge
Margin Std Dev	13.5	11.4	IND +2.1
Skewness	0.56	0.28	—
Kurtosis	-3.06	-3.83	—
Blowout Win%	7.3%	16.7%	DET -0.1
Blowout Loss%	35.4%	0.0%	DET -0.4
QUARTER SCORING
Stat	IND	DET	Edge
Q1 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q2 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q3 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q4 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q4 vs Q1 Delta	0.0	0.0	—

2 RESEARCH INTEL 5PM 7 alerts

3 BLIND ANALYSIS T-30 Pending

4 COMPARISON Pending

5 OPUS VERDICT Pending

6 RESULT Awaiting

ATL @ MIA 2026-04-12T22:00Z

1 DATA & MATCHUP CARD 11AM ✓ Computed

PROJECTIONS (our math)

Home: MIA | Away: ATL

ATL 106.8 — MIA 99.1

Total: 206.0 | Spread: +5.0 | ML: 42.3%

Pace: 100.3 poss | HCA: +2.7 pts

EFFICIENCY RATINGS
Stat	MIA	ATL	Edge
ORtg	—	—	—
DRtg	—	—	—
NetRtg	—	—	—
Pace	—	—	—
Record	0-0	0-0	—
MOV	2.4	-17.5	MIA +19.9
Consistency	16.00	0.00	MIA +16.00
Adj 4 Factors	0.24	0.28	ATL -0.03
FOUR FACTORS (offense)
Stat	MIA	ATL	Edge
eFG%	54.2%	55.4%	ATL -0.012
TOV%	13.1%	13.8%	MIA +0.007
OREB%	29.6%	29.1%	MIA +0.005
FTA Rate	0.268	0.234	MIA +0.034
FOUR FACTORS (defense — lower is better)
Stat	MIA	ATL	Edge
Opp eFG%	54.0%	54.6%	MIA +0.006
Opp TOV%	14.4%	15.6%	ATL -0.012
Opp OREB%	29.7%	29.8%	MIA +0.001
Opp FTA Rate	0.240	0.260	MIA +0.020
MATCHUP DELTAS (off vs opp def)
Stat	MIA	ATL	Edge
eFG Delta	-0.4	+1.4	ATL -1.8
ORB Delta	-0.2	-0.6	MIA +0.4
TOV Delta	-2.5	-0.6	ATL -1.9
FTR Delta	+0.8	-0.6	MIA +1.4
Matchup ORtg	114.0	113.9	MIA +0.1
CLUTCH (last 5 min, margin ≤5)
Stat	MIA	ATL	Edge
Clutch ORtg	111.5	109.5	MIA +2.0
Clutch DRtg	117.5	107.4	ATL -10.1
Clutch NetRtg	-6.1	+2.2	ATL -8.3
HUSTLE
Stat	MIA	ATL	Edge
Deflections	17.8	19.9	ATL -2.1
Loose Balls	4.1	4.7	ATL -0.6
Contested 2PT	24.7	27.0	ATL -2.3
Contested 3PT	17.7	16.3	MIA +1.4
Screen Assists	3.0	7.7	ATL -4.7
Charges Drawn	0.5	0.2	MIA +0.3
REST & FATIGUE
Stat	MIA	ATL	Edge
B2B Win%	66.7%	25.0%	MIA +0.417
1-Day Rest Win%	48.5%	62.8%	ATL -0.143
3+ Day Rest Win%	25.0%	25.0%	0.000
Rest Advantage	1d / fat 31.05	1d / fat 25.98	-0.2 pts

SHOOTING
Stat	MIA	ATL	Edge
FG%	46.8%	43.6%	MIA +0.032
3PT%	36.1%	31.2%	MIA +0.049
3PT Rate	40.6%	43.4%	ATL -0.028
FG3A/game	37.9	36.3	MIA +1.6
OPPONENT STATS (what defense allows)
Stat	MIA	ATL	Edge
Opp PPG	118.5	116.0	ATL -2.5
Opp FG%	46.5%	47.4%	MIA +0.009
Opp 3P%	35.9%	35.5%	ATL -0.004
Opp TOV	15.0	16.1	ATL -1.1
HOME/AWAY SPLITS
Stat	MIA	ATL	Edge
Home ORtg	117.9	115.4	MIA +2.5
Home DRtg	113.1	111.6	ATL -1.5
Home NetRtg	+4.8	+3.8	MIA +1.0
Road ORtg	113.6	114.7	ATL -1.1
Road NetRtg	-0.5	+0.5	ATL -1.0
RECENT FORM
Stat	MIA	ATL	Edge
L5 ORtg	126.3	117.5	MIA +8.8
L5 DRtg	120.9	114.1	ATL -6.8
L5 NetRtg	+5.4	+3.4	MIA +2.0
L10 ORtg	123.6	117.9	MIA +5.7
L10 NetRtg	-0.3	+5.5	ATL -5.8
Sagarin Overall	91.00	92.04	ATL -1.04
Sagarin Predictor	90.95	92.24	ATL -1.29
Sagarin Strong Recent	91.23	92.30	ATL -1.07
Sag Trend (Recent-Pred)	+0.28	+0.06	MIA +0.22
DRatings Overall	0.06	0.21	ATL -0.15
DRatings Inference	0.05	0.23	ATL -0.18
DR Trend (Inf-Overall)	-0.01	+0.02	ATL -0.04
VARIANCE & BLOWOUTS
Stat	MIA	ATL	Edge
Margin Std Dev	16.8	19.9	ATL -3.2
Skewness	0.22	-0.99	—
Kurtosis	-3.08	-5.13	—
Blowout Win%	25.6%	0.0%	MIA +0.3
Blowout Loss%	14.6%	50.0%	MIA +0.4
QUARTER SCORING
Stat	MIA	ATL	Edge
Q1 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q2 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q3 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q4 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q4 vs Q1 Delta	0.0	0.0	—

2 RESEARCH INTEL 5PM No alerts

3 BLIND ANALYSIS T-30 Pending

4 COMPARISON Pending

5 OPUS VERDICT Pending

6 RESULT Awaiting

CHA @ NYK 2026-04-12T22:00Z

1 DATA & MATCHUP CARD 11AM ✓ Computed

PROJECTIONS (our math)

Home: NYK | Away: CHA

CHA 83.5 — NYK 104.1

Total: 187.6 | Spread: -24.6 | ML: 82.3%

Pace: 94.7 poss | HCA: +4.0 pts

EFFICIENCY RATINGS
Stat	NYK	CHA	Edge
ORtg	—	—	—
DRtg	—	—	—
NetRtg	—	—	—
Pace	—	—	—
Record	0-0	0-0	—
MOV	19.4	4.8	NYK +14.6
Consistency	0.00	17.80	CHA -17.80
Adj 4 Factors	0.33	0.19	NYK +0.15
FOUR FACTORS (offense)
Stat	NYK	CHA	Edge
eFG%	55.7%	55.2%	NYK +0.005
TOV%	13.9%	15.7%	NYK +0.018
OREB%	32.8%	35.8%	CHA -0.030
FTA Rate	0.238	0.244	CHA -0.006
FOUR FACTORS (defense — lower is better)
Stat	NYK	CHA	Edge
Opp eFG%	54.1%	54.0%	CHA -0.001
Opp TOV%	14.7%	13.0%	NYK +0.017
Opp OREB%	28.5%	27.8%	CHA -0.007
Opp FTA Rate	0.265	0.232	CHA -0.033
MATCHUP DELTAS (off vs opp def)
Stat	NYK	CHA	Edge
eFG Delta	+1.7	+1.1	NYK +0.6
ORB Delta	+5.0	+7.3	CHA -2.3
TOV Delta	+0.9	+1.0	CHA -0.1
FTR Delta	+0.6	-2.1	NYK +2.7
Matchup ORtg	117.5	116.0	NYK +1.5
CLUTCH (last 5 min, margin ≤5)
Stat	NYK	CHA	Edge
Clutch ORtg	123.5	101.8	NYK +21.7
Clutch DRtg	103.1	112.9	NYK +9.8
Clutch NetRtg	+20.5	-11.1	NYK +31.6
HUSTLE
Stat	NYK	CHA	Edge
Deflections	17.0	13.8	NYK +3.2
Loose Balls	4.5	4.3	NYK +0.2
Contested 2PT	22.4	28.6	CHA -6.2
Contested 3PT	16.3	15.9	NYK +0.5
Screen Assists	6.8	8.6	CHA -1.8
Charges Drawn	0.6	0.2	NYK +0.3
REST & FATIGUE
Stat	NYK	CHA	Edge
B2B Win%	66.7%	60.0%	NYK +0.067
1-Day Rest Win%	70.0%	51.4%	NYK +0.186
3+ Day Rest Win%	75.0%	50.0%	NYK +0.250
Rest Advantage	1d / fat 31.75	1d / fat 39.21	+0.2 pts

SHOOTING
Stat	NYK	CHA	Edge
FG%	51.7%	46.0%	NYK +0.057
3PT%	40.8%	37.8%	NYK +0.030
3PT Rate	38.4%	48.7%	CHA -0.103
FG3A/game	32.1	43.3	CHA -11.2
OPPONENT STATS (what defense allows)
Stat	NYK	CHA	Edge
Opp PPG	110.1	111.2	NYK +1.1
Opp FG%	46.0%	46.7%	NYK +0.007
Opp 3P%	36.2%	35.9%	CHA -0.003
Opp TOV	14.4	12.7	NYK +1.7
HOME/AWAY SPLITS
Stat	NYK	CHA	Edge
Home ORtg	120.8	118.0	NYK +2.8
Home DRtg	110.5	114.0	NYK +3.5
Home NetRtg	+10.3	+4.0	NYK +6.3
Road ORtg	116.4	118.8	CHA -2.4
Road NetRtg	+2.4	+5.9	CHA -3.5
RECENT FORM
Stat	NYK	CHA	Edge
L5 ORtg	120.0	118.0	NYK +2.0
L5 DRtg	108.7	113.8	NYK +5.1
L5 NetRtg	+11.3	+4.2	NYK +7.1
L10 ORtg	119.7	120.1	CHA -0.4
L10 NetRtg	+2.5	+6.6	CHA -4.1
Sagarin Overall	99.32	94.17	NYK +5.15
Sagarin Predictor	99.62	94.70	NYK +4.92
Sagarin Strong Recent	101.62	97.27	NYK +4.35
Sag Trend (Recent-Pred)	+2.00	+2.57	CHA -0.57
DRatings Overall	0.63	0.37	NYK +0.26
DRatings Inference	0.90	0.57	NYK +0.33
DR Trend (Inf-Overall)	+0.27	+0.20	NYK +0.07
VARIANCE & BLOWOUTS
Stat	NYK	CHA	Edge
Margin Std Dev	17.4	17.4	-0.0
Skewness	0.56	0.36	—
Kurtosis	-3.97	-3.08	—
Blowout Win%	50.0%	31.7%	NYK +0.2
Blowout Loss%	0.0%	13.4%	NYK +0.1

2 RESEARCH INTEL 5PM No alerts

3 BLIND ANALYSIS T-30 Pending

4 COMPARISON Pending

5 OPUS VERDICT Pending

6 RESULT Awaiting

MIL @ PHI 2026-04-12T22:00Z

1 DATA & MATCHUP CARD 11AM ✓ Computed

PROJECTIONS (our math)

Home: PHI | Away: MIL

MIL 90.9 — PHI 85.3

Total: 176.2 | Spread: +6.7 | ML: 39.7%

Pace: 96.4 poss | HCA: -1.1 pts

EFFICIENCY RATINGS
Stat	PHI	MIL	Edge
ORtg	—	—	—
DRtg	—	—	—
NetRtg	—	—	—
Pace	—	—	—
Record	0-0	0-0	—
MOV	-9.9	-6.2	MIL -3.7
Consistency	0.00	17.00	MIL -17.00
Adj 4 Factors	0.33	0.23	PHI +0.10
FOUR FACTORS (offense)
Stat	PHI	MIL	Edge
eFG%	53.0%	56.5%	MIL -0.035
TOV%	13.4%	15.4%	PHI +0.020
OREB%	30.6%	26.3%	PHI +0.043
FTA Rate	0.275	0.223	PHI +0.052
FOUR FACTORS (defense — lower is better)
Stat	PHI	MIL	Edge
Opp eFG%	54.1%	55.8%	PHI +0.017
Opp TOV%	15.2%	13.2%	PHI +0.020
Opp OREB%	32.2%	30.5%	MIL -0.017
Opp FTA Rate	0.270	0.274	PHI +0.004
MATCHUP DELTAS (off vs opp def)
Stat	PHI	MIL	Edge
eFG Delta	-2.8	+2.4	MIL -5.2
ORB Delta	+0.1	-5.9	PHI +6.0
TOV Delta	+0.2	+0.2	0.0
FTR Delta	+0.1	-4.7	PHI +4.8
Matchup ORtg	117.9	111.9	PHI +6.0
CLUTCH (last 5 min, margin ≤5)
Stat	PHI	MIL	Edge
Clutch ORtg	115.2	116.1	MIL -0.9
Clutch DRtg	98.6	109.0	PHI +10.4
Clutch NetRtg	+16.6	+7.1	PHI +9.5
HUSTLE
Stat	PHI	MIL	Edge
Deflections	20.5	16.6	PHI +3.9
Loose Balls	4.7	3.7	PHI +1.0
Contested 2PT	24.6	22.1	PHI +2.5
Contested 3PT	15.6	15.1	PHI +0.5
Screen Assists	7.1	6.3	PHI +0.8
Charges Drawn	0.2	0.2	+0.0
REST & FATIGUE
Stat	PHI	MIL	Edge
B2B Win%	50.0%	33.3%	PHI +0.167
1-Day Rest Win%	51.4%	38.5%	PHI +0.129
3+ Day Rest Win%	75.0%	66.7%	PHI +0.083
Rest Advantage	1d / fat 45.99	1d / fat 37.41	-0.3 pts

SHOOTING
Stat	PHI	MIL	Edge
FG%	44.8%	47.7%	MIL -0.029
3PT%	33.8%	38.7%	MIL -0.049
3PT Rate	39.5%	45.7%	MIL -0.062
FG3A/game	32.8	39.1	MIL -6.3
OPPONENT STATS (what defense allows)
Stat	PHI	MIL	Edge
Opp PPG	116.1	116.8	PHI +0.7
Opp FG%	46.7%	47.3%	PHI +0.006
Opp 3P%	35.3%	37.5%	PHI +0.022
Opp TOV	15.4	13.1	PHI +2.3
HOME/AWAY SPLITS
Stat	PHI	MIL	Edge
Home ORtg	113.6	115.3	MIL -1.7
Home DRtg	114.8	119.2	PHI +4.4
Home NetRtg	-1.2	-3.9	PHI +2.7
Road ORtg	115.0	109.0	PHI +6.0
Road NetRtg	+0.9	-8.3	PHI +9.2
RECENT FORM
Stat	PHI	MIL	Edge
L5 ORtg	105.4	115.6	MIL -10.2
L5 DRtg	108.6	119.0	PHI +10.4
L5 NetRtg	-3.2	-3.4	PHI +0.2
L10 ORtg	116.0	113.1	PHI +2.9
L10 NetRtg	+3.4	-7.3	PHI +10.7
Sagarin Overall	90.20	83.45	PHI +6.75
Sagarin Predictor	89.36	83.07	PHI +6.29
Sagarin Strong Recent	90.93	80.46	PHI +10.47
Sag Trend (Recent-Pred)	+1.57	-2.61	PHI +4.18
DRatings Overall	0.08	-0.48	PHI +0.56
DRatings Inference	0.08	-0.67	PHI +0.75
DR Trend (Inf-Overall)	+0.00	-0.19	PHI +0.19
VARIANCE & BLOWOUTS
Stat	PHI	MIL	Edge
Margin Std Dev	20.9	16.6	PHI +4.4
Skewness	-0.06	-0.21	—
Kurtosis	-3.95	-3.09	—
Blowout Win%	9.1%	13.4%	-0.0
Blowout Loss%	36.4%	31.7%	-0.0
QUARTER SCORING
Stat	PHI	MIL	Edge
Q1 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q2 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q3 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q4 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q4 vs Q1 Delta	0.0	0.0	—

2 RESEARCH INTEL 5PM No alerts

3 BLIND ANALYSIS T-30 Pending

4 COMPARISON Pending

5 OPUS VERDICT Pending

6 RESULT Awaiting

BKN @ TOR 2026-04-12T22:00Z

1 DATA & MATCHUP CARD 11AM ✓ Computed

PROJECTIONS (our math)

Home: TOR | Away: BKN

BKN 88.6 — TOR 108.3

Total: 196.8 | Spread: -21.3 | ML: 79.1%

Pace: 95.5 poss | HCA: +1.6 pts

EFFICIENCY RATINGS
Stat	TOR	BKN	Edge
ORtg	—	—	—
DRtg	—	—	—
NetRtg	—	—	—
Pace	—	—	—
Record	0-0	0-0	—
MOV	-1.8	-10.0	TOR +8.2
Consistency	0.00	17.80	BKN -17.80
Adj 4 Factors	0.29	0.26	TOR +0.03
FOUR FACTORS (offense)
Stat	TOR	BKN	Edge
eFG%	54.6%	52.0%	TOR +0.026
TOV%	13.7%	16.1%	TOR +0.024
OREB%	30.0%	28.7%	TOR +0.013
FTA Rate	0.265	0.272	BKN -0.007
FOUR FACTORS (defense — lower is better)
Stat	TOR	BKN	Edge
Opp eFG%	54.0%	57.1%	TOR +0.031
Opp TOV%	16.1%	14.8%	TOR +0.013
Opp OREB%	30.7%	31.3%	TOR +0.006
Opp FTA Rate	0.279	0.290	TOR +0.011
MATCHUP DELTAS (off vs opp def)
Stat	TOR	BKN	Edge
eFG Delta	-2.5	-2.0	BKN -0.5
ORB Delta	-1.3	-2.0	TOR +0.7
TOV Delta	-1.1	—	—
FTR Delta	-2.5	-0.7	BKN -1.8
Matchup ORtg	118.5	105.6	TOR +12.9
CLUTCH (last 5 min, margin ≤5)
Stat	TOR	BKN	Edge
Clutch ORtg	106.9	102.3	TOR +4.6
Clutch DRtg	99.1	126.1	TOR +27.0
Clutch NetRtg	+7.7	-23.8	TOR +31.5
HUSTLE
Stat	TOR	BKN	Edge
Deflections	20.4	17.6	TOR +2.8
Loose Balls	3.9	3.9	TOR +0.1
Contested 2PT	23.7	25.3	BKN -1.6
Contested 3PT	15.1	15.5	BKN -0.4
Screen Assists	6.9	6.5	TOR +0.4
Charges Drawn	0.3	0.2	TOR +0.1
REST & FATIGUE
Stat	TOR	BKN	Edge
B2B Win%	33.3%	0.0%	TOR +0.333
1-Day Rest Win%	56.8%	28.6%	TOR +0.282
3+ Day Rest Win%	100.0%	14.3%	TOR +0.857
Rest Advantage	1d / fat 34.64	1d / fat 18.67	-0.5 pts

SHOOTING
Stat	TOR	BKN	Edge
FG%	46.5%	44.3%	TOR +0.022
3PT%	35.6%	34.0%	TOR +0.015
3PT Rate	34.3%	45.5%	BKN -0.112
FG3A/game	29.7	38.4	BKN -8.7
OPPONENT STATS (what defense allows)
Stat	TOR	BKN	Edge
Opp PPG	111.8	115.9	TOR +4.1
Opp FG%	46.7%	49.7%	TOR +0.030
Opp 3P%	34.9%	38.1%	TOR +0.032
Opp TOV	16.1	14.5	TOR +1.6
HOME/AWAY SPLITS
Stat	TOR	BKN	Edge
Home ORtg	115.4	110.1	TOR +5.3
Home DRtg	110.9	116.6	TOR +5.7
Home NetRtg	+4.5	-6.4	TOR +10.9
Road ORtg	114.5	106.2	TOR +8.3
Road NetRtg	+1.2	-13.6	TOR +14.8
RECENT FORM
Stat	TOR	BKN	Edge
L5 ORtg	119.3	105.7	TOR +13.6
L5 DRtg	110.5	119.7	TOR +9.2
L5 NetRtg	+8.8	-14.0	TOR +22.8
L10 ORtg	120.8	104.7	TOR +16.1
L10 NetRtg	+12.0	-13.9	TOR +25.9
Sagarin Overall	92.77	78.69	TOR +14.08
Sagarin Predictor	93.15	78.38	TOR +14.77
Sagarin Strong Recent	93.29	77.29	TOR +16.00
Sag Trend (Recent-Pred)	+0.14	-1.09	TOR +1.23
DRatings Overall	0.20	-0.91	TOR +1.10
DRatings Inference	0.29	-1.07	TOR +1.37
DR Trend (Inf-Overall)	+0.10	-0.17	TOR +0.26
VARIANCE & BLOWOUTS
Stat	TOR	BKN	Edge
Margin Std Dev	12.4	17.4	BKN -5.0
Skewness	1.28	0.09	—
Kurtosis	-4.41	-3.07	—
Blowout Win%	14.3%	7.3%	TOR +0.1
Blowout Loss%	0.0%	39.0%	TOR +0.4
QUARTER SCORING
Stat	TOR	BKN	Edge
Q1 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q2 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q3 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q4 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q4 vs Q1 Delta	0.0	0.0	—

2 RESEARCH INTEL 5PM 5 alerts

3 BLIND ANALYSIS T-30 Pending

4 COMPARISON Pending

5 OPUS VERDICT Pending

6 RESULT Awaiting

CHI @ DAL 2026-04-13T00:30Z

1 DATA & MATCHUP CARD 11AM ✓ Computed

PROJECTIONS (our math)

Home: DAL | Away: CHI

CHI 87.2 — DAL 101.7

Total: 188.8 | Spread: -16.4 | ML: 73.6%

Pace: 99.8 poss | HCA: +1.9 pts

EFFICIENCY RATINGS
Stat	DAL	CHI	Edge
ORtg	—	—	—
DRtg	—	—	—
NetRtg	—	—	—
Pace	—	—	—
Record	0-0	0-0	—
MOV	-5.5	-5.2	CHI -0.3
Consistency	11.90	14.90	CHI -3.00
Adj 4 Factors	0.28	0.26	DAL +0.02
FOUR FACTORS (offense)
Stat	DAL	CHI	Edge
eFG%	52.7%	54.7%	CHI -0.020
TOV%	14.1%	14.8%	DAL +0.007
OREB%	27.9%	27.9%	0.000
FTA Rate	0.287	0.246	DAL +0.041
FOUR FACTORS (defense — lower is better)
Stat	DAL	CHI	Edge
Opp eFG%	54.6%	55.3%	DAL +0.007
Opp TOV%	12.9%	12.5%	DAL +0.004
Opp OREB%	29.8%	29.2%	CHI -0.006
Opp FTA Rate	0.238	0.245	DAL +0.007
MATCHUP DELTAS (off vs opp def)
Stat	DAL	CHI	Edge
eFG Delta	-2.6	+0.1	CHI -2.7
ORB Delta	-1.3	-1.9	DAL +0.6
TOV Delta	+1.6	+1.9	CHI -0.3
FTR Delta	+4.2	+0.8	DAL +3.4
Matchup ORtg	113.0	112.9	DAL +0.1
CLUTCH (last 5 min, margin ≤5)
Stat	DAL	CHI	Edge
Clutch ORtg	102.8	109.9	CHI -7.1
Clutch DRtg	111.4	110.4	CHI -1.0
Clutch NetRtg	-8.6	-0.5	CHI -8.1
HUSTLE
Stat	DAL	CHI	Edge
Deflections	14.1	14.3	CHI -0.3
Loose Balls	4.2	4.1	DAL +0.1
Contested 2PT	27.0	27.8	CHI -0.8
Contested 3PT	16.0	17.8	CHI -1.8
Screen Assists	8.9	6.3	DAL +2.5
Charges Drawn	0.3	0.6	CHI -0.3
REST & FATIGUE
Stat	DAL	CHI	Edge
B2B Win%	33.3%	40.0%	CHI -0.067
1-Day Rest Win%	34.2%	41.5%	CHI -0.073
3+ Day Rest Win%	20.0%	50.0%	CHI -0.300
Rest Advantage	1d / fat 53.80	1d / fat 48.35	-0.2 pts

SHOOTING
Stat	DAL	CHI	Edge
FG%	46.6%	46.9%	CHI -0.003
3PT%	34.4%	35.6%	CHI -0.012
3PT Rate	35.5%	44.3%	CHI -0.088
FG3A/game	31.9	40.1	CHI -8.2
OPPONENT STATS (what defense allows)
Stat	DAL	CHI	Edge
Opp PPG	119.6	121.5	DAL +1.9
Opp FG%	47.8%	47.8%	0.000
Opp 3P%	35.0%	36.8%	DAL +0.018
Opp TOV	13.4	13.0	DAL +0.4
HOME/AWAY SPLITS
Stat	DAL	CHI	Edge
Home ORtg	112.0	111.8	DAL +0.2
Home DRtg	115.2	115.8	DAL +0.6
Home NetRtg	-3.2	-3.9	DAL +0.7
Road ORtg	108.6	112.4	CHI -3.8
Road NetRtg	-7.0	-6.6	CHI -0.4
RECENT FORM
Stat	DAL	CHI	Edge
L5 ORtg	119.5	109.3	DAL +10.2
L5 DRtg	120.7	112.3	CHI -8.4
L5 NetRtg	-1.2	-3.0	DAL +1.8
L10 ORtg	112.0	108.8	DAL +3.2
L10 NetRtg	-6.5	-10.6	DAL +4.1
Sagarin Overall	84.65	83.77	DAL +0.88
Sagarin Predictor	84.71	83.76	DAL +0.95
Sagarin Strong Recent	83.98	82.31	DAL +1.67
Sag Trend (Recent-Pred)	-0.73	-1.45	DAL +0.72
DRatings Overall	-0.58	-0.52	CHI -0.06
DRatings Inference	-0.71	-0.67	CHI -0.04
DR Trend (Inf-Overall)	-0.13	-0.15	DAL +0.02
VARIANCE & BLOWOUTS
Stat	DAL	CHI	Edge
Margin Std Dev	12.2	15.2	CHI -3.0
Skewness	-0.05	-0.05	—
Kurtosis	-3.08	-3.07	—
Blowout Win%	4.9%	9.8%	-0.0
Blowout Loss%	19.5%	26.8%	DAL +0.1
QUARTER SCORING
Stat	DAL	CHI	Edge
Q1 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q2 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q3 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q4 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q4 vs Q1 Delta	0.0	0.0	—

2 RESEARCH INTEL 5PM 5 alerts

3 BLIND ANALYSIS T-30 Pending

4 COMPARISON Pending

5 OPUS VERDICT Pending

6 RESULT Awaiting

MEM @ HOU 2026-04-13T00:30Z

1 DATA & MATCHUP CARD 11AM ✓ Computed

PROJECTIONS (our math)

Home: HOU | Away: MEM

MEM 87.1 — HOU 101.0

Total: 188.1 | Spread: -16.2 | ML: 73.4%

Pace: 96.4 poss | HCA: +2.4 pts

EFFICIENCY RATINGS
Stat	HOU	MEM	Edge
ORtg	—	—	—
DRtg	—	—	—
NetRtg	—	—	—
Pace	—	—	—
Record	0-0	0-0	—
MOV	-2.5	-6.0	HOU +3.5
Consistency	0.00	14.80	MEM -14.80
Adj 4 Factors	0.29	0.17	HOU +0.12
FOUR FACTORS (offense)
Stat	HOU	MEM	Edge
eFG%	54.2%	53.3%	HOU +0.009
TOV%	15.7%	14.8%	MEM -0.009
OREB%	38.8%	30.1%	HOU +0.087
FTA Rate	0.260	0.251	HOU +0.009
FOUR FACTORS (defense — lower is better)
Stat	HOU	MEM	Edge
Opp eFG%	53.0%	56.2%	HOU +0.032
Opp TOV%	13.7%	15.2%	MEM -0.015
Opp OREB%	29.9%	33.7%	HOU +0.038
Opp FTA Rate	0.251	0.262	HOU +0.011
MATCHUP DELTAS (off vs opp def)
Stat	HOU	MEM	Edge
eFG Delta	-2.0	+0.3	MEM -2.3
ORB Delta	+5.1	+0.2	HOU +4.9
TOV Delta	+0.5	+1.1	MEM -0.6
FTR Delta	-0.2	—	—
Matchup ORtg	121.2	109.8	HOU +11.4
CLUTCH (last 5 min, margin ≤5)
Stat	HOU	MEM	Edge
Clutch ORtg	108.2	97.1	HOU +11.1
Clutch DRtg	117.0	114.0	MEM -3.0
Clutch NetRtg	-8.8	-16.9	HOU +8.1
HUSTLE
Stat	HOU	MEM	Edge
Deflections	16.8	17.8	MEM -1.0
Loose Balls	5.0	4.5	HOU +0.6
Contested 2PT	26.1	24.5	HOU +1.6
Contested 3PT	15.6	16.7	MEM -1.1
Screen Assists	6.3	6.4	MEM -0.1
Charges Drawn	0.2	0.2	MEM -0.1
REST & FATIGUE
Stat	HOU	MEM	Edge
B2B Win%	33.3%	0.0%	HOU +0.333
1-Day Rest Win%	67.5%	35.7%	HOU +0.318
3+ Day Rest Win%	60.0%	50.0%	HOU +0.100
Rest Advantage	0d / fat 71.54	0d / fat 46.83	-0.7 pts

SHOOTING
Stat	HOU	MEM	Edge
FG%	40.9%	45.6%	MEM -0.047
3PT%	30.1%	35.3%	MEM -0.051
3PT Rate	38.6%	43.6%	MEM -0.050
FG3A/game	33.2	39.5	MEM -6.4
OPPONENT STATS (what defense allows)
Stat	HOU	MEM	Edge
Opp PPG	110.0	120.7	HOU +10.7
Opp FG%	46.0%	48.5%	HOU +0.025
Opp 3P%	35.1%	36.4%	HOU +0.013
Opp TOV	13.4	15.5	MEM -2.1
HOME/AWAY SPLITS
Stat	HOU	MEM	Edge
Home ORtg	117.6	113.9	HOU +3.7
Home DRtg	109.8	117.8	HOU +8.0
Home NetRtg	+7.8	-3.9	HOU +11.7
Road ORtg	117.4	110.7	HOU +6.7
Road NetRtg	+3.0	-8.6	HOU +11.6
RECENT FORM
Stat	HOU	MEM	Edge
L5 ORtg	123.6	106.2	HOU +17.4
L5 DRtg	112.7	130.3	HOU +17.6
L5 NetRtg	+10.9	-24.1	HOU +35.0
L10 ORtg	126.8	108.0	HOU +18.8
L10 NetRtg	+16.0	-19.7	HOU +35.7
Sagarin Overall	94.18	81.64	HOU +12.54
Sagarin Predictor	94.33	81.78	HOU +12.55
Sagarin Strong Recent	92.82	76.68	HOU +16.14
Sag Trend (Recent-Pred)	-1.51	-5.10	HOU +3.59
DRatings Overall	0.41	-0.81	HOU +1.22
DRatings Inference	0.39	-1.04	HOU +1.44
DR Trend (Inf-Overall)	-0.02	-0.23	HOU +0.22
VARIANCE & BLOWOUTS
Stat	HOU	MEM	Edge
Margin Std Dev	13.5	15.2	MEM -1.8
Skewness	0.59	0.18	—
Kurtosis	-5.13	-3.07	—
Blowout Win%	16.7%	9.8%	HOU +0.1
Blowout Loss%	16.7%	26.8%	HOU +0.1
QUARTER SCORING
Stat	HOU	MEM	Edge
Q1 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q2 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q3 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q4 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q4 vs Q1 Delta	0.0	0.0	—

2 RESEARCH INTEL 5PM No alerts

3 BLIND ANALYSIS T-30 Pending

4 COMPARISON Pending

5 OPUS VERDICT Pending

6 RESULT Awaiting

NOP @ MIN 2026-04-13T00:30Z

1 DATA & MATCHUP CARD 11AM ✓ Computed

PROJECTIONS (our math)

Home: MIN | Away: NOP

NOP 108.9 — MIN 102.5

Total: 211.3 | Spread: +5.9 | ML: 41.0%

Pace: 98.4 poss | HCA: +0.5 pts

EFFICIENCY RATINGS
Stat	MIN	NOP	Edge
ORtg	—	—	—
DRtg	—	—	—
NetRtg	—	—	—
Pace	—	—	—
Record	0-0	0-0	—
MOV	-3.6	-4.5	MIN +0.9
Consistency	0.00	13.30	NOP -13.30
Adj 4 Factors	0.28	0.31	NOP -0.03
FOUR FACTORS (offense)
Stat	MIN	NOP	Edge
eFG%	55.9%	52.7%	MIN +0.032
TOV%	14.5%	13.9%	NOP -0.006
OREB%	30.2%	31.1%	NOP -0.009
FTA Rate	0.285	0.284	MIN +0.001
FOUR FACTORS (defense — lower is better)
Stat	MIN	NOP	Edge
Opp eFG%	52.9%	55.5%	MIN +0.026
Opp TOV%	14.7%	14.2%	MIN +0.005
Opp OREB%	30.9%	32.6%	MIN +0.017
Opp FTA Rate	0.282	0.258	NOP -0.024
MATCHUP DELTAS (off vs opp def)
Stat	MIN	NOP	Edge
eFG Delta	+0.4	-0.2	MIN +0.6
ORB Delta	-2.4	+0.2	NOP -2.6
TOV Delta	+0.3	-0.8	MIN +1.1
FTR Delta	+2.7	+0.2	MIN +2.5
Matchup ORtg	118.5	111.1	MIN +7.4
CLUTCH (last 5 min, margin ≤5)
Stat	MIN	NOP	Edge
Clutch ORtg	108.4	97.5	MIN +10.9
Clutch DRtg	109.5	117.8	MIN +8.3
Clutch NetRtg	-1.2	-20.3	MIN +19.1
HUSTLE
Stat	MIN	NOP	Edge
Deflections	17.0	18.2	NOP -1.2
Loose Balls	4.3	4.2	MIN +0.1
Contested 2PT	27.2	22.6	MIN +4.6
Contested 3PT	15.0	17.0	NOP -2.0
Screen Assists	7.1	6.5	MIN +0.6
Charges Drawn	0.1	0.3	NOP -0.2
REST & FATIGUE
Stat	MIN	NOP	Edge
B2B Win%	42.9%	20.0%	MIN +0.229
1-Day Rest Win%	59.0%	29.7%	MIN +0.293
3+ Day Rest Win%	100.0%	25.0%	MIN +0.750
Rest Advantage	0d / fat 81.04	1d / fat 55.00	-0.8 pts

SHOOTING
Stat	MIN	NOP	Edge
FG%	44.3%	46.6%	NOP -0.022
3PT%	33.5%	34.7%	NOP -0.012
3PT Rate	34.4%	35.5%	NOP -0.011
FG3A/game	30.9	32.1	NOP -1.2
OPPONENT STATS (what defense allows)
Stat	MIN	NOP	Edge
Opp PPG	114.6	120.0	MIN +5.4
Opp FG%	46.2%	47.7%	MIN +0.015
Opp 3P%	35.5%	35.0%	NOP -0.005
Opp TOV	15.0	14.5	MIN +0.5
HOME/AWAY SPLITS
Stat	MIN	NOP	Edge
Home ORtg	112.7	114.4	NOP -1.7
Home DRtg	109.0	115.9	MIN +6.9
Home NetRtg	+3.6	-1.4	MIN +5.0
Road ORtg	118.5	112.1	MIN +6.4
Road NetRtg	+2.6	-7.3	MIN +9.9
RECENT FORM
Stat	MIN	NOP	Edge
L5 ORtg	121.6	115.6	MIN +6.0
L5 DRtg	121.3	119.3	NOP -2.0
L5 NetRtg	+0.3	-3.7	MIN +4.0
L10 ORtg	112.3	112.4	NOP -0.1
L10 NetRtg	-0.6	-9.6	MIN +9.0
Sagarin Overall	93.17	86.40	MIN +6.77
Sagarin Predictor	92.94	86.58	MIN +6.36
Sagarin Strong Recent	93.52	88.21	MIN +5.31
Sag Trend (Recent-Pred)	+0.58	+1.63	NOP -1.05
DRatings Overall	0.29	-0.40	MIN +0.69
DRatings Inference	0.30	-0.44	MIN +0.74
DR Trend (Inf-Overall)	+0.01	-0.04	MIN +0.05
VARIANCE & BLOWOUTS
Stat	MIN	NOP	Edge
Margin Std Dev	17.9	13.5	MIN +4.4
Skewness	-0.78	0.13	—
Kurtosis	-3.80	-3.08	—
Blowout Win%	18.2%	11.0%	MIN +0.1
Blowout Loss%	18.2%	20.7%	+0.0

2 RESEARCH INTEL 5PM No alerts

3 BLIND ANALYSIS T-30 Pending

4 COMPARISON Pending

5 OPUS VERDICT Pending

6 RESULT Awaiting

PHX @ OKC 2026-04-13T00:30Z

1 DATA & MATCHUP CARD 11AM ✓ Computed

PROJECTIONS (our math)

Home: OKC | Away: PHX

PHX 89.9 — OKC 110.5

Total: 200.4 | Spread: -21.0 | ML: 78.8%

Pace: 96.3 poss | HCA: +0.4 pts

EFFICIENCY RATINGS
Stat	OKC	PHX	Edge
ORtg	—	—	—
DRtg	—	—	—
NetRtg	—	—	—
Pace	—	—	—
Record	0-0	0-0	—
MOV	16.7	-17.3	OKC +34.0
Consistency	0.00	0.00	0.00
Adj 4 Factors	0.25	0.22	OKC +0.02
FOUR FACTORS (offense)
Stat	OKC	PHX	Edge
eFG%	56.1%	53.7%	OKC +0.024
TOV%	12.4%	14.7%	OKC +0.023
OREB%	26.4%	33.1%	PHX -0.067
FTA Rate	0.261	0.225	OKC +0.036
FOUR FACTORS (defense — lower is better)
Stat	OKC	PHX	Edge
Opp eFG%	51.9%	54.1%	OKC +0.022
Opp TOV%	16.5%	16.5%	0.000
Opp OREB%	30.3%	32.3%	OKC +0.020
Opp FTA Rate	0.248	0.276	OKC +0.028
MATCHUP DELTAS (off vs opp def)
Stat	OKC	PHX	Edge
eFG Delta	+2.0	+1.8	OKC +0.2
ORB Delta	-5.9	+2.8	PHX -8.7
TOV Delta	-4.1	-1.8	PHX -2.3
FTR Delta	-1.5	-2.3	OKC +0.8
Matchup ORtg	115.8	106.0	OKC +9.8
CLUTCH (last 5 min, margin ≤5)
Stat	OKC	PHX	Edge
Clutch ORtg	124.5	104.0	OKC +20.5
Clutch DRtg	100.7	112.4	OKC +11.7
Clutch NetRtg	+23.8	-8.4	OKC +32.2
HUSTLE
Stat	OKC	PHX	Edge
Deflections	20.7	20.3	OKC +0.5
Loose Balls	4.5	4.6	PHX -0.1
Contested 2PT	27.3	21.1	OKC +6.2
Contested 3PT	19.0	14.0	OKC +4.9
Screen Assists	8.2	8.4	PHX -0.2
Charges Drawn	0.5	0.2	OKC +0.3
REST & FATIGUE
Stat	OKC	PHX	Edge
B2B Win%	33.3%	33.3%	0.000
1-Day Rest Win%	83.3%	60.5%	OKC +0.228
3+ Day Rest Win%	100.0%	57.1%	OKC +0.429
Rest Advantage	0d / fat 58.06	0d / fat 67.72	+0.3 pts

SHOOTING
Stat	OKC	PHX	Edge
FG%	51.0%	44.6%	OKC +0.064
3PT%	38.4%	34.0%	OKC +0.044
3PT Rate	41.8%	43.5%	PHX -0.017
FG3A/game	36.5	37.5	PHX -1.0
OPPONENT STATS (what defense allows)
Stat	OKC	PHX	Edge
Opp PPG	107.9	111.1	OKC +3.2
Opp FG%	43.7%	47.0%	OKC +0.033
Opp 3P%	36.9%	34.7%	PHX -0.022
Opp TOV	16.7	16.3	OKC +0.4
HOME/AWAY SPLITS
Stat	OKC	PHX	Edge
Home ORtg	117.5	114.7	OKC +2.8
Home DRtg	105.8	111.1	OKC +5.3
Home NetRtg	+11.7	+3.6	OKC +8.1
Road ORtg	118.1	113.8	OKC +4.3
Road NetRtg	+10.8	-0.8	OKC +11.6
RECENT FORM
Stat	OKC	PHX	Edge
L5 ORtg	120.7	113.1	OKC +7.6
L5 DRtg	112.9	111.3	PHX -1.6
L5 NetRtg	+7.8	+1.7	OKC +6.1
L10 ORtg	120.7	116.4	OKC +4.3
L10 NetRtg	+10.8	+3.3	OKC +7.5
Sagarin Overall	101.77	90.56	OKC +11.21
Sagarin Predictor	101.87	90.61	OKC +11.26
Sagarin Strong Recent	102.36	89.88	OKC +12.48
Sag Trend (Recent-Pred)	+0.49	-0.73	OKC +1.22
DRatings Overall	1.05	0.12	OKC +0.93
DRatings Inference	1.15	0.17	OKC +0.98
DR Trend (Inf-Overall)	+0.10	+0.05	OKC +0.05
VARIANCE & BLOWOUTS
Stat	OKC	PHX	Edge
Margin Std Dev	9.3	15.7	PHX -6.3
Skewness	1.01	-0.42	—
Kurtosis	-4.12	-3.07	—
Blowout Win%	50.0%	19.5%	OKC +0.3
Blowout Loss%	0.0%	17.1%	OKC +0.2
QUARTER SCORING
Stat	OKC	PHX	Edge
Q1 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q2 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q3 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q4 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q4 vs Q1 Delta	0.0	0.0	—

2 RESEARCH INTEL 5PM No alerts

3 BLIND ANALYSIS T-30 Pending

4 COMPARISON Pending

5 OPUS VERDICT Pending

6 RESULT Awaiting

DEN @ SAS 2026-04-13T00:30Z

1 DATA & MATCHUP CARD 11AM ✓ Computed

PROJECTIONS (our math)

Home: SAS | Away: DEN

DEN 109.3 — SAS 96.4

Total: 205.7 | Spread: +12.9 | ML: 30.9%

Pace: 97.1 poss | HCA: 0.0 pts

EFFICIENCY RATINGS
Stat	SAS	DEN	Edge
ORtg	—	—	—
DRtg	—	—	—
NetRtg	—	—	—
Pace	—	—	—
Record	0-0	0-0	—
MOV	12.9	-4.5	SAS +17.4
Consistency	0.00	0.00	0.00
Adj 4 Factors	0.32	0.36	DEN -0.04
FOUR FACTORS (offense)
Stat	SAS	DEN	Edge
eFG%	55.9%	57.7%	DEN -0.018
TOV%	13.3%	12.8%	DEN -0.005
OREB%	30.6%	28.6%	SAS +0.020
FTA Rate	0.274	0.294	DEN -0.020
FOUR FACTORS (defense — lower is better)
Stat	SAS	DEN	Edge
Opp eFG%	52.2%	54.3%	SAS +0.021
Opp TOV%	12.8%	11.7%	SAS +0.011
Opp OREB%	27.6%	28.3%	SAS +0.007
Opp FTA Rate	0.228	0.254	SAS +0.026
MATCHUP DELTAS (off vs opp def)
Stat	SAS	DEN	Edge
eFG Delta	+1.6	+5.5	DEN -3.9
ORB Delta	+2.3	+1.0	SAS +1.3
TOV Delta	+1.6	—	—
FTR Delta	+2.0	+6.6	DEN -4.6
Matchup ORtg	120.0	116.9	SAS +3.1
CLUTCH (last 5 min, margin ≤5)
Stat	SAS	DEN	Edge
Clutch ORtg	122.6	117.4	SAS +5.2
Clutch DRtg	114.4	120.6	SAS +6.2
Clutch NetRtg	+8.3	-3.2	SAS +11.5
HUSTLE
Stat	SAS	DEN	Edge
Deflections	15.7	14.4	SAS +1.3
Loose Balls	4.1	3.5	SAS +0.6
Contested 2PT	27.6	22.0	SAS +5.6
Contested 3PT	14.8	14.9	DEN -0.1
Screen Assists	8.1	8.7	DEN -0.7
Charges Drawn	0.3	0.3	DEN -0.1
REST & FATIGUE
Stat	SAS	DEN	Edge
B2B Win%	80.0%	50.0%	SAS +0.300
1-Day Rest Win%	82.5%	67.6%	SAS +0.149
3+ Day Rest Win%	100.0%	33.3%	SAS +0.667
Rest Advantage	1d / fat 42.35	0d / fat 33.71	-0.3 pts

SHOOTING
Stat	SAS	DEN	Edge
FG%	48.4%	43.6%	SAS +0.048
3PT%	37.3%	31.1%	SAS +0.062
3PT Rate	37.3%	38.6%	DEN -0.013
FG3A/game	31.9	32.2	DEN -0.3
OPPONENT STATS (what defense allows)
Stat	SAS	DEN	Edge
Opp PPG	111.5	116.9	SAS +5.4
Opp FG%	45.1%	46.8%	SAS +0.017
Opp 3P%	35.2%	34.9%	DEN -0.003
Opp TOV	13.0	11.8	SAS +1.2
HOME/AWAY SPLITS
Stat	SAS	DEN	Edge
Home ORtg	120.0	120.7	DEN -0.7
Home DRtg	111.6	115.1	SAS +3.5
Home NetRtg	+8.4	+5.7	SAS +2.7
Road ORtg	117.9	121.7	DEN -3.8
Road NetRtg	+8.4	+4.7	SAS +3.7
RECENT FORM
Stat	SAS	DEN	Edge
L5 ORtg	121.4	128.7	DEN -7.3
L5 DRtg	116.2	117.5	SAS +1.3
L5 NetRtg	+5.2	+11.1	DEN -5.9
L10 ORtg	123.1	128.0	DEN -4.9
L10 NetRtg	+13.2	+10.6	SAS +2.6
Sagarin Overall	100.08	94.92	SAS +5.16
Sagarin Predictor	99.92	95.08	SAS +4.84
Sagarin Strong Recent	102.27	93.75	SAS +8.52
Sag Trend (Recent-Pred)	+2.35	-1.33	SAS +3.68
DRatings Overall	0.89	0.49	SAS +0.40
DRatings Inference	1.13	0.57	SAS +0.56
DR Trend (Inf-Overall)	+0.25	+0.08	SAS +0.16
VARIANCE & BLOWOUTS
Stat	SAS	DEN	Edge
Margin Std Dev	14.2	13.1	SAS +1.1
Skewness	0.36	0.58	—
Kurtosis	-3.97	-5.55	—
Blowout Win%	40.0%	0.0%	SAS +0.4
Blowout Loss%	0.0%	33.3%	SAS +0.3

2 RESEARCH INTEL 5PM 4 alerts

3 BLIND ANALYSIS T-30 Pending

4 COMPARISON Pending

5 OPUS VERDICT Pending

6 RESULT Awaiting

UTA @ LAL 2026-04-13T00:30Z

1 DATA & MATCHUP CARD 11AM ✓ Computed

PROJECTIONS (our math)

Home: LAL | Away: UTA

UTA 89.3 — LAL 120.0

Total: 209.4 | Spread: -32.8 | ML: 88.6%

Pace: 98.3 poss | HCA: +2.1 pts

EFFICIENCY RATINGS
Stat	LAL	UTA	Edge
ORtg	—	—	—
DRtg	—	—	—
NetRtg	—	—	—
Pace	—	—	—
Record	0-0	0-0	—
MOV	-4.9	-8.4	LAL +3.5
Consistency	0.00	16.20	UTA -16.20
Adj 4 Factors	0.27	0.21	LAL +0.06
FOUR FACTORS (offense)
Stat	LAL	UTA	Edge
eFG%	57.3%	53.6%	LAL +0.037
TOV%	14.6%	14.9%	LAL +0.003
OREB%	28.5%	29.8%	UTA -0.013
FTA Rate	0.320	0.277	LAL +0.043
FOUR FACTORS (defense — lower is better)
Stat	LAL	UTA	Edge
Opp eFG%	55.5%	57.8%	LAL +0.023
Opp TOV%	14.7%	14.0%	LAL +0.007
Opp OREB%	30.0%	30.7%	LAL +0.007
Opp FTA Rate	0.241	0.292	LAL +0.051
MATCHUP DELTAS (off vs opp def)
Stat	LAL	UTA	Edge
eFG Delta	-0.5	-1.9	LAL +1.4
ORB Delta	-2.2	-0.2	UTA -2.0
TOV Delta	+0.6	+0.2	LAL +0.4
FTR Delta	+2.8	+3.6	UTA -0.8
Matchup ORtg	123.1	113.5	LAL +9.6
CLUTCH (last 5 min, margin ≤5)
Stat	LAL	UTA	Edge
Clutch ORtg	129.3	106.4	LAL +22.9
Clutch DRtg	103.3	110.7	LAL +7.4
Clutch NetRtg	+26.0	-4.3	LAL +30.3
HUSTLE
Stat	LAL	UTA	Edge
Deflections	17.1	17.4	UTA -0.3
Loose Balls	4.1	4.0	LAL +0.1
Contested 2PT	22.0	21.2	LAL +0.9
Contested 3PT	14.4	17.1	UTA -2.7
Screen Assists	8.8	8.7	LAL +0.1
Charges Drawn	0.7	0.3	LAL +0.4
REST & FATIGUE
Stat	LAL	UTA	Edge
B2B Win%	66.7%	60.0%	LAL +0.067
1-Day Rest Win%	61.5%	12.8%	LAL +0.487
3+ Day Rest Win%	80.0%	75.0%	LAL +0.050
Rest Advantage	0d / fat 56.49	0d / fat 60.65	+0.1 pts

SHOOTING
Stat	LAL	UTA	Edge
FG%	47.2%	46.7%	LAL +0.005
3PT%	38.5%	34.5%	LAL +0.041
3PT Rate	34.8%	40.3%	UTA -0.054
FG3A/game	27.0	36.7	UTA -9.7
OPPONENT STATS (what defense allows)
Stat	LAL	UTA	Edge
Opp PPG	114.6	126.0	LAL +11.4
Opp FG%	48.3%	49.4%	LAL +0.011
Opp 3P%	35.2%	37.2%	LAL +0.020
Opp TOV	14.6	14.6	0.0
HOME/AWAY SPLITS
Stat	LAL	UTA	Edge
Home ORtg	117.8	115.8	LAL +2.0
Home DRtg	114.2	120.8	LAL +6.6
Home NetRtg	+3.6	-5.1	LAL +8.7
Road ORtg	116.2	109.5	LAL +6.7
Road NetRtg	-0.6	-11.3	LAL +10.7
RECENT FORM
Stat	LAL	UTA	Edge
L5 ORtg	116.0	108.6	LAL +7.4
L5 DRtg	111.3	121.0	LAL +9.7
L5 NetRtg	+4.6	-12.4	LAL +17.0
L10 ORtg	116.5	108.7	LAL +7.8
L10 NetRtg	+3.2	-13.6	LAL +16.8
Sagarin Overall	92.92	80.91	LAL +12.01
Sagarin Predictor	92.81	80.87	LAL +11.94
Sagarin Strong Recent	93.00	80.14	LAL +12.86
Sag Trend (Recent-Pred)	+0.19	-0.73	LAL +0.92
DRatings Overall	0.32	-0.84	LAL +1.16
DRatings Inference	0.37	-0.91	LAL +1.28
DR Trend (Inf-Overall)	+0.05	-0.08	LAL +0.12
VARIANCE & BLOWOUTS
Stat	LAL	UTA	Edge
Margin Std Dev	14.6	16.7	UTA -2.2
Skewness	0.33	0.34	—
Kurtosis	-4.02	-3.06	—
Blowout Win%	10.0%	6.1%	+0.0
Blowout Loss%	40.0%	34.2%	UTA -0.1

2 RESEARCH INTEL 5PM 15 alerts

No Lakers: **No Lakers game scheduled for April 13, 2026.**[[1]](https://www.nba.com/news/2026-nba-playoffs-schedule)[[2]](https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/LAL/2026_games.html)

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-13 21:16:17

Utah Jazz: Regular season ended April 12 vs. Utah Jazz.[[3]](https://www.nba.com/game/0022501198)

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-13 21:16:17

Houston Rockets: Playoffs: Game 1 vs. Houston Rockets on April 18.[[4]](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/schedule/_/name/lal/los-angeles-lakers)

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-13 21:16:17

Current Lakers: **Current Lakers injuries (as of Apr 13):**

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-13 21:16:17

Luka Don: out

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-13 21:16:17

Simone Fontecchio: **Simone Fontecchio Status Update**<br>

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-13 21:16:17

Simone Fontecchio: - **Current Team**: Miami Heat (not Los Angeles Lakers).[[1]](https://www.nba.com/player/1631323/simone-fontecchio)[[2]](https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/3899664/simone-fontecchio)[[3]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simone_Fontecchio)

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-13 21:16:17

Simone Fontecchio: Out

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-13 21:16:17

Simone Fontecchio: - **April 13, 2026**: No NBA regular season games scheduled (finale was April 12). No injury report or status available for Heat or Lakers.[[9]](https://www.nba.com/game/0022501198)[[10]](https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/LAL/2026_games.html)

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-13 21:16:17

Simone Fontecchio: questionable

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-13 21:16:17

Pelle Larsson: **Pelle Larsson Status:**

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-13 21:16:17

Pelle Larsson: - **Team:** Miami Heat (not Los Angeles Lakers).[[1]](https://www.rotowire.com/basketball/player/pelle-larsson-6013)[[2]](https://www.nba.com/player/1641796/pelle-larsson)

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-13 21:16:17

Pelle Larsson: ruled out

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-13 21:16:17

Pelle Larsson: - **LAL Roster:** No association found; absent from Lakers injury reports.[[5]](https://www.therx.com/nba/lakers-injury-report-today-april-12-2026/28254)[[6]](https://www.cbssports.com/nba/teams/lal/los-angeles-lakers/injuries)

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-13 21:16:17

Pelle Larsson: out

| Source: Grok x_search (targeted) | 2026-04-13 21:16:17

3 BLIND ANALYSIS T-30 Pending

4 COMPARISON Pending

5 OPUS VERDICT Pending

6 RESULT Awaiting

GSW @ LAC 2026-04-13T00:30Z

1 DATA & MATCHUP CARD 11AM ✓ Computed

PROJECTIONS (our math)

Home: LAC | Away: GSW

GSW 100.4 — LAC 107.3

Total: 207.7 | Spread: -9.5 | ML: 64.4%

Pace: 95.7 poss | HCA: +2.6 pts

EFFICIENCY RATINGS
Stat	LAC	GSW	Edge
ORtg	—	—	—
DRtg	—	—	—
NetRtg	—	—	—
Pace	—	—	—
Record	0-0	0-0	—
MOV	1.2	-0.6	LAC +1.8
Consistency	16.90	15.00	LAC +1.90
Adj 4 Factors	0.23	0.28	GSW -0.05
FOUR FACTORS (offense)
Stat	LAC	GSW	Edge
eFG%	55.9%	54.9%	LAC +0.010
TOV%	14.7%	15.6%	LAC +0.009
OREB%	28.4%	30.2%	GSW -0.018
FTA Rate	0.295	0.238	LAC +0.057
FOUR FACTORS (defense — lower is better)
Stat	LAC	GSW	Edge
Opp eFG%	54.5%	55.3%	LAC +0.008
Opp TOV%	14.6%	15.8%	GSW -0.012
Opp OREB%	31.9%	31.6%	GSW -0.003
Opp FTA Rate	0.248	0.247	GSW -0.001
MATCHUP DELTAS (off vs opp def)
Stat	LAC	GSW	Edge
eFG Delta	+0.6	+0.4	LAC +0.2
ORB Delta	-3.2	-1.7	GSW -1.5
TOV Delta	-1.1	+1.0	GSW -2.1
FTR Delta	+4.8	-1.0	LAC +5.8
Matchup ORtg	116.0	114.3	LAC +1.7
CLUTCH (last 5 min, margin ≤5)
Stat	LAC	GSW	Edge
Clutch ORtg	110.1	115.1	GSW -5.0
Clutch DRtg	115.0	112.5	GSW -2.5
Clutch NetRtg	-4.9	+2.7	GSW -7.6
HUSTLE
Stat	LAC	GSW	Edge
Deflections	18.4	19.1	GSW -0.7
Loose Balls	3.8	5.0	GSW -1.2
Contested 2PT	25.7	25.3	LAC +0.4
Contested 3PT	16.3	15.2	LAC +1.1
Screen Assists	6.3	7.5	GSW -1.2
Charges Drawn	0.1	0.6	GSW -0.5
REST & FATIGUE
Stat	LAC	GSW	Edge
B2B Win%	20.0%	40.0%	GSW -0.200
1-Day Rest Win%	65.8%	47.2%	LAC +0.186
3+ Day Rest Win%	20.0%	20.0%	0.000
Rest Advantage	0d / fat 61.46	0d / fat 50.10	-0.3 pts

SHOOTING
Stat	LAC	GSW	Edge
FG%	48.4%	46.1%	LAC +0.023
3PT%	36.8%	35.6%	LAC +0.012
3PT Rate	40.4%	49.7%	GSW -0.092
FG3A/game	33.8	44.1	GSW -10.3
OPPONENT STATS (what defense allows)
Stat	LAC	GSW	Edge
Opp PPG	112.6	115.2	LAC +2.6
Opp FG%	46.9%	48.0%	LAC +0.011
Opp 3P%	36.4%	36.0%	GSW -0.004
Opp TOV	14.3	15.9	GSW -1.6
HOME/AWAY SPLITS
Stat	LAC	GSW	Edge
Home ORtg	117.8	116.8	LAC +1.0
Home DRtg	114.1	115.7	LAC +1.6
Home NetRtg	+3.7	+1.1	LAC +2.6
Road ORtg	114.9	110.9	LAC +4.0
Road NetRtg	-1.5	-2.1	LAC +0.6
RECENT FORM
Stat	LAC	GSW	Edge
L5 ORtg	115.9	116.5	GSW -0.6
L5 DRtg	113.9	121.6	LAC +7.7
L5 NetRtg	+2.0	-5.1	LAC +7.1
L10 ORtg	116.0	113.7	LAC +2.3
L10 NetRtg	+2.4	-6.3	LAC +8.7
Sagarin Overall	91.37	88.05	LAC +3.32
Sagarin Predictor	91.97	88.25	LAC +3.72
Sagarin Strong Recent	90.25	84.20	LAC +6.05
Sag Trend (Recent-Pred)	-1.72	-4.05	LAC +2.33
DRatings Overall	0.14	-0.13	LAC +0.28
DRatings Inference	0.17	-0.23	LAC +0.40
DR Trend (Inf-Overall)	+0.03	-0.10	LAC +0.12
VARIANCE & BLOWOUTS
Stat	LAC	GSW	Edge
Margin Std Dev	16.4	14.8	LAC +1.5
Skewness	0.16	0.17	—
Kurtosis	-3.08	-3.08	—
Blowout Win%	21.9%	15.8%	LAC +0.1
Blowout Loss%	20.7%	14.6%	GSW -0.1

2 RESEARCH INTEL 5PM 10 alerts

Los Angeles: **Los Angeles Clippers vs. Golden State Warriors (April 13, 2026)**[[1]](https://www.espn.ph/nba/recap?gameId=401811054)[[2]](https://www.cbssports.com/nba/gametracker/boxscore/NBA_20260412_GS@LAC)

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-13 21:16:17

Ruled Out: Ruled Out

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-13 21:16:17

Kawhi Leonard: - Kawhi Leonard (Ankle)[[3]](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/injuries/_/name/lac/la-clippers)[[4]](https://www.cbssports.com/nba/teams/LAC/los-angeles-clippers/injuries)[[5]](https://x.com/i/status/2043479329913319564)

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-13 21:16:17

Isaiah Jackson: - Isaiah Jackson (Ankle)[[4]](https://www.cbssports.com/nba/teams/LAC/los-angeles-clippers/injuries)[[5]](https://x.com/i/status/2043479329913319564)

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-13 21:16:17

Bradley Beal: - Bradley Beal (Hip)[[5]](https://x.com/i/status/2043479329913319564)

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-13 21:16:17

Golden State: **Golden State Warriors Injury Status - April 13, 2026**[[1]](https://www.espn.com/nba/team/injuries/_/name/gs/golden-state-warriors)[[2]](https://www.cbssports.com/nba/teams/gs/golden-state-warriors/injuries)

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-13 21:16:17

GSW update: - **No game scheduled tonight.** Next game: Play-in tournament @ Clippers, Wed. Apr 15.[[3]](https://www.nba.com/warriors/schedule)[[4]](https://www.cbssports.com/nba/teams/gs/golden-state-warriors/schedule)

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-13 21:16:17

Ruled Out: Ruled Out

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-13 21:16:17

Draymond Green: out

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-13 21:16:17

GSW update: - L.J. Cryer (ankle)[[2]](https://www.cbssports.com/nba/teams/gs/golden-state-warriors/injuries)

| Source: Grok x_search | 2026-04-13 21:16:17

3 BLIND ANALYSIS T-30 Pending

4 COMPARISON Pending

5 OPUS VERDICT Pending

6 RESULT Awaiting

SAC @ POR 2026-04-13T00:30Z

1 DATA & MATCHUP CARD 11AM ✓ Computed

PROJECTIONS (our math)

Home: POR | Away: SAC

SAC 89.5 — POR 88.2

Total: 177.7 | Spread: -2.3 | ML: 53.6%

Pace: 97.8 poss | HCA: +3.6 pts

EFFICIENCY RATINGS
Stat	POR	SAC	Edge
ORtg	—	—	—
DRtg	—	—	—
NetRtg	—	—	—
Pace	—	—	—
Record	0-0	0-0	—
MOV	-12.4	-10.0	SAC -2.4
Consistency	0.00	14.70	SAC -14.70
Adj 4 Factors	0.25	0.28	SAC -0.03
FOUR FACTORS (offense)
Stat	POR	SAC	Edge
eFG%	53.4%	52.5%	POR +0.009
TOV%	16.9%	14.3%	SAC -0.026
OREB%	35.4%	29.8%	POR +0.056
FTA Rate	0.280	0.256	POR +0.024
FOUR FACTORS (defense — lower is better)
Stat	POR	SAC	Edge
Opp eFG%	54.1%	57.2%	POR +0.031
Opp TOV%	15.3%	13.9%	POR +0.014
Opp OREB%	31.2%	31.5%	POR +0.003
Opp FTA Rate	0.272	0.274	POR +0.002
MATCHUP DELTAS (off vs opp def)
Stat	POR	SAC	Edge
eFG Delta	-3.8	-1.6	SAC -2.2
ORB Delta	+3.9	-1.4	POR +5.3
TOV Delta	+3.0	-1.0	POR +4.0
FTR Delta	+0.6	-1.6	POR +2.2
Matchup ORtg	118.7	109.4	POR +9.3
CLUTCH (last 5 min, margin ≤5)
Stat	POR	SAC	Edge
Clutch ORtg	111.1	112.3	SAC -1.2
Clutch DRtg	115.0	107.1	SAC -7.9
Clutch NetRtg	-4.0	+5.2	SAC -9.2
HUSTLE
Stat	POR	SAC	Edge
Deflections	16.7	15.5	POR +1.2
Loose Balls	4.0	3.9	POR +0.1
Contested 2PT	26.2	23.8	POR +2.4
Contested 3PT	14.8	15.3	SAC -0.4
Screen Assists	5.6	7.7	SAC -2.2
Charges Drawn	0.4	0.3	POR +0.1
REST & FATIGUE
Stat	POR	SAC	Edge
B2B Win%	33.3%	33.3%	0.000
1-Day Rest Win%	47.6%	20.0%	POR +0.276
3+ Day Rest Win%	28.6%	25.0%	POR +0.036
Rest Advantage	0d / fat 70.00	0d / fat 52.17	-0.5 pts

SHOOTING
Stat	POR	SAC	Edge
FG%	40.3%	46.7%	SAC -0.064
3PT%	30.2%	34.1%	SAC -0.038
3PT Rate	43.2%	33.9%	POR +0.093
FG3A/game	38.4	30.2	POR +8.2
OPPONENT STATS (what defense allows)
Stat	POR	SAC	Edge
Opp PPG	115.8	121.0	POR +5.2
Opp FG%	47.1%	49.4%	POR +0.023
Opp 3P%	35.8%	37.9%	POR +0.021
Opp TOV	15.6	14.0	POR +1.6
HOME/AWAY SPLITS
Stat	POR	SAC	Edge
Home ORtg	115.6	111.4	POR +4.2
Home DRtg	112.4	118.3	POR +5.9
Home NetRtg	+3.2	-6.9	POR +10.1
Road ORtg	110.6	109.7	POR +0.9
Road NetRtg	-4.0	-12.6	POR +8.6
RECENT FORM
Stat	POR	SAC	Edge
L5 ORtg	117.6	113.9	POR +3.7
L5 DRtg	112.6	120.9	POR +8.3
L5 NetRtg	+4.9	-7.0	POR +11.9
L10 ORtg	117.6	113.0	POR +4.6
L10 NetRtg	+13.0	-10.8	POR +23.8
Sagarin Overall	90.63	81.81	POR +8.82
Sagarin Predictor	90.28	81.46	POR +8.82
Sagarin Strong Recent	93.12	82.28	POR +10.84
Sag Trend (Recent-Pred)	+2.84	+0.82	POR +2.02
DRatings Overall	0.06	-0.78	POR +0.85
DRatings Inference	0.05	-0.90	POR +0.95
DR Trend (Inf-Overall)	-0.01	-0.12	POR +0.10
VARIANCE & BLOWOUTS
Stat	POR	SAC	Edge
Margin Std Dev	9.4	14.5	SAC -5.1
Skewness	1.36	-0.31	—
Kurtosis	-5.98	-3.08	—
Blowout Win%	0.0%	2.4%	-0.0
Blowout Loss%	40.0%	30.5%	SAC -0.1
QUARTER SCORING
Stat	POR	SAC	Edge
Q1 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q2 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q3 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q4 Avg	0.0	0.0	0.0
Q4 vs Q1 Delta	0.0	0.0	—

2 RESEARCH INTEL 5PM No alerts

3 BLIND ANALYSIS T-30 Pending

4 COMPARISON Pending

5 OPUS VERDICT Pending

6 RESULT Awaiting