Data Viewer: manifold-predictions

manifold_latest (5,908 total rows, showing 50 of 5,908)

market idquestionslugprobabilityvolumevolume 24hunique bettorsoutcome typeclose timefetched at
SU85C8INt9Daily Coin Flip - Day 36daily-coin-flip-day-360.501038.521151.2313BINARY2026-03-24T06:37:00.000ZMar 24 1:46 AM
nzls8SIClIDaily Coinflipdaily-coinflip-guRR6Es5dy0.51423.50104.6012BINARY2026-03-24T03:59:00.000ZMar 24 1:46 AM
2ZqQqn0cgqWill Democrats win the Mar A Lago(Trump Residence) District- Florida State House...will-democrats-win-the-mar-a-lagotr0.212499.691551.2725BINARY2026-03-24T23:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
Au9C6AOg9ZIs/Was Benjamin Netanyahu dead or grievously injured as of March 12-14, 2026iswas-benjamin-netanyahu-dead-or-gr0.0232788.84205.0856BINARY2026-04-01T04:15:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
sZA6zz2pqNWill someone get into trouble at the field trip tomorrow?will-someone-get-in-major-trouble-a0.54999.28999.2814BINARY2026-03-24T23:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
LlNCONSLPdWill JD Vance’s next tweet contain the letter J?will-jd-vances-next-tweet-contain-t0.12743.58212.3215BINARY2026-04-21T15:46:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
Lz0hnO2lysU.S. PHEV sales to exceed 23,500 units in Feb 2026?us-phev-sales-to-exceed-23500-units0.0122864.065211.3817BINARY2026-04-10T22:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
c5tCCyLI0QWill I post 2 articles on my Substack between 16Mar - 23Marwill-i-post-2-articles-on-my-substa0.078246.695458.7725BINARY2026-03-23T23:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
znuzCy0AEtItaly judicial reform: Will turnout at the March 2026 referendum exceed 50%?italy-judicial-reform-will-turnout0.25937.79024BINARY2026-03-22T02:00:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
ARnqln6pRPWill Y Combinator fund 3 or more quantum-related startups in its next public bat...will-y-combinator-fund-3-or-more-qu0.064685.37022BINARY2026-03-20T21:49:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
p9zQh8NtluWill Elon Musk visit China before March 21 2026?will-elon-musk-visit-china-before-m0.011669.55033BINARY2026-03-20T23:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
6Q26QuOOpPWill Manifest be the weekend of Jun 12-14?will-manifest-be-the-weekend-of-jun0.996254.46010BINARY2026-06-14T23:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
uOyysQtIyRWill Jake Paul run for and win any political office before EOY 2028?will-jake-paul-run-for-and-win-any0.22251.14010BINARY2028-12-31T23:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
BwRxPkHErdFLjlUT3yJJWill an official mugshot of any current Republican senator be published before 2...will-an-official-mugshot-of-any-cur-0dbce33ef0190.62595.18015BINARY2029-12-31T22:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
nRvmA6AirJXhRIN0dkfJWill AI pass the Bob Ross Turing Test by 2035?will-ai-pass-the-bob-ross-turing-te0.643840.62022BINARY2036-01-01T05:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
yIRzgCZ8hNWill Ghislane Maxwell be pardoned by Trump before 1/1/2029?will-ghislane-maxwell-be-pardoned-b0.1011946.81050BINARY2029-01-02T07:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
gwjTHDVDtcpLkoliKLS9By 2026, will Gene Haas sell Haas Formula 1 Team?by-2026-will-gene-haas-sell-haas-fo0.132943.76029BINARY2027-01-01T02:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
AZqS6npUCyWill a multi-agent system have its time horizon evaluated by METR before August ...will-a-multiagent-system-have-its-t0.381222.74011BINARY2026-07-31T23:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
69q0vGwUDUEJ9FDOIFIrWill AI allow us to talk to animals by 2034?will-ai-allow-us-to-talk-to-animals0.578949.57056BINARY2034-05-26T13:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
Rm87uyhzOEfLvyEftfg6A humanoid robot kills a human by 2030a-humanoid-robot-kills-a-human-by-20.512738.47061BINARY2030-01-02T07:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
dquSRlcU6hWill Trump or his team apologize for the $TRUMP meme coin or state that it was a...will-trump-or-his-team-apologize-fo0.12490.38010BINARY2029-01-25T22:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
tLNzS2gqclwill i get in mit rawill-i-get-in-mit-ra0.312358.48031BINARY2026-03-15T01:43:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
SNIuh5nn8OIf Donald Trump is impeached again in his second term, will it stick?if-donald-trump-is-impeached-again0.15610.69023BINARY2029-01-20T23:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
fo3Koo4ySJvi4xOgmTcXWill Russia conduct military operations in any another country against ISIS-K be...will-russia-conduct-military-operat-59672397e5c40.171700.52030BINARY2027-01-01T04:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
t0NuqnZy99Will my friend get a girlfriend at RSI 2026?will-my-friend-get-a-girlfriend-at-ygzEgLg2CI0.222727.69020BINARY2026-08-08T23:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
IDL98d7ZVg5fzzfrn21FWill there be commercial flights to the Moon in 2032?will-there-be-commercial-flights-to0.162191.02031BINARY2033-01-01T07:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
h6rzgBTrduiur5sNvKLEWill Austin Chen (Manifold cofounder) be charged with any felony crime before 20...will-austin-chen-manifold-cofounder0.0547516.29078BINARY2029-12-31T23:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
VWJoSIr2vX3IInnIGvsCWill Israel be rated a free country by Freedom House in 2028?will-israel-be-rated-a-free-country0.72491.34012BINARY2028-12-31T23:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
lXWOY6WFNDH05lW2RxfmWill I perform at Fyre Festival II?will-i-perform-at-fyre-festival-ii0.058692.38036BINARY2027-01-01T04:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
pZtuEp6SpSWill unemployment in the US be higher in September 2026 than in either September...will-unemployment-in-the-us-be-high0.903701.18016BINARY2026-11-01T06:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
W7fguNiqsjel1HLZJGAFWill Britain still use FPTP voting (and no other voting mechanisms) for picking ...will-britain-still-use-fptp-voting0.44371.06014BINARY2040-01-01T23:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
tC80ZPzq0Swill i attend MIT in the fall of 2026will-i-attend-mit-in-the-fall-of-200.87314.65012BINARY2026-12-31T23:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
gqu0ZquphSUkraine war outlasts Trump's presidency?ukraine-war-outlasts-trumps-preside0.43236.59010BINARY2029-01-20T23:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
nnlER8R2dSWill Luigi Magione’s defense claim mental health or substance impairment in cour...will-luigi-magiones-defense-claim-m0.4929348.130191BINARY2027-01-01T07:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
T0gT9UrhluUO9f8tGXS2Will Russia lose control of at least as much territory inside Russia as it did t...will-russia-lose-control-of-at-leas0.32767.72030BINARY2030-12-31T21:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
rWiPTNNxC3ZikiUDi0ywWill the next elected President of the USA serve the full term?will-the-next-elected-president-of0.751570.21031BINARY2028-12-31T22:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
duRSPc6CQsWill Andrew Yang run for president in 2028?will-andrew-yang-run-for-president-hQqURlRzp00.18525.27012BINARY2029-01-02T05:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
tYH8BxZBKEstwO3K6UjsWill South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?will-south-korea-withdraw-from-the0.101092.43018BINARY2026-12-31T23:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
hpIhAzSp0NFatal terrorist attack via drone swarm in the West before 2026-06-18?fatal-terrorist-attack-via-drone-sw0.10279.36011BINARY2026-06-18T23:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
Z25UXeqmDsiSn2yBZM2TWill the president elected in 2024 complete his or her term?will-the-president-elected-in-20240.773555.86040BINARY2029-01-01T07:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
msnv5nldoHpK0ANoF2lqWill Rust be ranked in the top 10 programming languages by the year 2030? 🦀🚀will-rust-be-ranked-in-the-top-10-p0.863842.61046BINARY2030-01-02T05:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
nhz8QISP2AWill I aquire over 1 metric ton of Tungsten by 2028?will-i-aquire-over-1-metric-ton-of0.151418014BINARY2028-12-31T23:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
5S5L0R2tQ8Will Donald Trump mention a Bering Strait crossing before the end of 2026?will-donald-trump-mention-a-bering0.68452.22014BINARY2026-12-31T22:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
nLcUZgzZ90Will we find out what’s on Trump’s neck?will-we-find-out-whats-on-trumps-ne0.16581.28016BINARY2026-04-02T03:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
ufk5p7rqc9Will credible evidence emerge linking Sahra Wagenknecht to Putin before 2030?will-credible-evidence-emerge-linki0.291230013BINARY2029-12-31T22:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
XFEqM3CN2N4n5P5deOXvWill Silicon Valley still be the world's most successful tech hub in 2060?will-silicon-valley-still-be-the-wo-784fc33914c30.541014.95038BINARY2060-01-02T04:59:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
ZC98s09CORWill Elon Musk be assassinated?will-elon-musk-be-assassinated0.157655.59038BINARY2077-12-31T18:29:00.000ZMar 24 8:00 AM
QA5zgO2glOWill Brent Crude Oil close above $115 on March 25, 2025?will-brent-crude-oil-close-above-110.124906.57429.7451BINARY2026-03-25T23:59:00.000ZMar 25 8:00 AM
2sEduzcRlpDaily Coinflipdaily-coinflip-ELldI9sdR90.502950.15211.6325BINARY2026-03-25T03:59:00.000ZMar 25 8:00 AM
u28Q8I6zA2Will Dutch budget amendment allowing Ukrainian students to pay statutory fees in...will-dutch-budget-amendment-allowin0.49289.55011BINARY2026-03-24T16:00:00.000ZMar 25 8:00 AM

manifold_predictions (35,790 total rows, showing 50 of 35,790)

market idquestionslugprobabilityvolumevolume 24hunique bettorsoutcome typeclose timefetched at
LsuEqlNthNWill Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?will-elon-musk-win-his-case-against-8lPPts2ySt0.524863.7428140BINARY2026-05-31T22:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
uQdQc8sICZThomas Massie wins Kentucky's 4th Republican primary in 2026?thomas-massie-wins-kentuckys-4th-re0.6823517.04780.87109BINARY2026-05-19T00:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
4MkPyu5D9MRLPREODSD7Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory0.264664046.8766.342194BINARY2040-01-01T08:00:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
y2ZIUOq0ZCTrump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by April 30?trump-announces-us-blockade-of-horm0.02126005.669560.55343BINARY2026-04-30T23:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
NNQdyAuytZWill Eliezer Yudkowsky actually debate @47fucb4r8c69323?will-eliezer-yudkowsky-actually-deb0.95664.56554.1211BINARY2026-12-31T11:08:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
5AkYuyYYboeJmvclql21Will Keir Starmer have a full term as Prime Minister?will-keir-starmer-have-a-full-term0.266884.2015.6056BINARY2029-12-31T23:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
l5ttgczEutWill US average gas price reach $4.300 in April, 2026?will-us-average-gas-price-reach-4301.00448665.53218844.88310BINARY2026-04-30T23:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
cyA88y5URRHegseth, Patel, or RFK is out within the next 90 dayshegseth-patel-or-rfk-is-out-within-LRUCtl0Rhg0.503076.99320.0323BINARY2026-07-07T09:42:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
hqhURsUOA9Will "Mythos-class" model be called Mythos?will-mythosclass-model-be-called-my0.441855.036017BINARY2027-12-31T23:30:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
qm2w9f9mb2Will Joe Biden live a longer life than Trump?will-joe-biden-die-at-an-older-age0.4495887.70100309BINARY2030-01-16T04:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
ghI9lZO0CPUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31? [Polymarket]us-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-m0.1921634.97551.6158BINARY2026-05-31T23:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
Iq0OnOp0AtIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30? [Polymarket]iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-u0.0159554.951174.19220BINARY2026-04-30T23:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
cEsUzRQZN0Trump dies in office during his 2nd term?trump-dies-in-office-during-the-47t0.1585761.431000249BINARY2029-01-20T23:44:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
pth6uLtIygWill Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?will-donald-trump-die-or-become-ser0.20523217.2220.33907BINARY2029-01-19T21:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
8sQz5UA0hlWill Iran still be charging tolls in the strait of hermuz on January 1st, 2027?will-iran-still-be-charging-tolls-i0.35384.162011BINARY2027-01-01T00:00:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
qcg6IUgOg6Mojtaba Khamenei Supreme Leader of Iran on July 1st, 2026mojtaba-khamenei-supreme-leader-of0.682513.492230BINARY2026-07-01T00:00:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
268sIPs8ZAWill Bitcoin Outperform Altcoins in 2026?will-bitcoin-outperform-altcoins-in-quUc0gps9I0.619846.0380.5422BINARY2027-01-01T23:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
zOSd5nE56cWill Iran actually participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?will-iran-actually-participate-in-t0.6551626.751116.50195BINARY2026-06-10T23:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
2ItEg96sptStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? [Polymarket]strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-n28Zdl8Nd60.2322415.881130.2698BINARY2026-05-31T23:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
SAIUNdCI8UDonut Battery is essentially Lithium free?donut-battery-is-essentially-lithiu0.27155380.53115132BINARY2027-01-01T03:50:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
M0AYiQ14YgJvoX3ol0DmWill a video game released after 2023 be a top 10 best-selling game of all time,...will-a-video-game-released-after-20-0d580bfd0bb90.31933.835018BINARY2027-01-01T04:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
zp9E6O05LNWill I earn at least $25 per hour grading USA(J)MO?will-i-earn-at-least-25-per-hour-gr0.2915341.6569.1227BINARY2027-01-01T04:59:59.999ZApr 30 8:00 AM
3wng2n5i8zWill I have a baby by the end of 2027?will-i-have-a-baby-by-the-end-of-20-jekyn2yui20.3768722.235229BINARY2028-01-02T07:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
5ztuCIqnuLBitcoin 60000€ at the end of april?bitcoin-60000-end-of-april0.9926733.245799.1783BINARY2026-04-30T23:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
uCgZhL5udIWill Anthropic surpass OpenAI valuation in 2026?will-anthropic-surpass-openai-valua0.65137958.2910929.76253BINARY2026-12-31T23:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
tt0Uy260hpWill Iran's regime fall in 2026?will-irans-regime-fall-in-20260.162614481.1347358.581865BINARY2026-12-31T23:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
0z8ZsUPS2AWill gas exceed $4.50 before midtermwill-gas-exceed-450-before-midterm0.889613.161787.7456BINARY2026-11-03T23:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
sO82POICOdWill Mojtaba Khamenei be first shown alive on video between April 1st and May 1,...will-mojtaba-khamenei-be-first-show0.044923.99191536BINARY2026-05-01T00:00:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
UCnzdttq5lWill Tottenham Hotspur get relegated?will-tottenham-hotspur-get-relegate0.4811382.0656.0669BINARY2026-05-31T23:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
g6Z5yU5ZLA[READ DESCRIPTION] Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? [Polymarket]will-jesus-christ-return-before-gta0.49471610.424567.38560BINARY2026-08-05T22:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
uISNlAqC2ERepublicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?republicans-have-house-majority-aft0.11344404.161205.14384BINARY2026-11-04T23:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
0lu0gQdLUgAre YES traders better, or are NO traders better at Manifold?are-yes-traders-better-or-are-no-tr0.211419.28171.3928BINARY2026-05-01T15:55:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
m4n27pyrhpWill Larry the Cat outlast Keir Starmer’s Prime Minister tenure?will-larry-the-cat-outlast-keir-sta0.572012.8522035BINARY2027-01-01T07:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
S9lE0syPndWill the price of WTI Crude Oil experience a single-day rise or fall of $7.00 or...will-the-price-of-wti-crude-oil-exp-PIZZ5LOpUI0.9816542.7914471.6521BINARY2026-04-30T23:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
gydRuZyshQWill we be called the AI bubble ? 2028will-we-be-called-the-ai-bubble-2020.436695.791039BINARY2027-12-31T23:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
OlQq8h8qOhStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by April 30? [Polymarket]strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-dUSCA0ZECl0.00281669.581109.80625BINARY2026-04-30T23:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
lTc1eMSAUuu4zg8oQhnxWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ever be US President?will-alexandria-ocasiocortez-ever-b0.163130.832450BINARY2100-01-01T06:00:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
IDTF8hOvsKWGIO27WeRZWill 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2028?will-1m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-a408a64f37560.216838.825048BINARY2028-03-01T22:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
dyzBvf8c8mTLgGglWYEBWill AOC be the first female President?will-aoc-be-the-first-female-presid0.071005.371015BINARY2100-01-01T05:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
tOECOzR6E6Azerbaijan to open land borders by April 2026 ?azerbaijan-to-open-land-borders-by0.101331.15685.3210BINARY2026-04-30T23:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
5eAXDA98XwOsTwQqVNySThis market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of d...this-market-resolves-yes-when-an-ar0.69658208.9160322BINARY2300-12-31T23:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
l6hzufs4HNu7PzJzFxsDWill AOC be elected President in 2036?will-aoc-be-elected-president-in-20-4efbe4dd24b70.06931.951515BINARY2036-11-06T23:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
ZppLzPlCSgIn a true free market. Prices would naturally fall . In other words deflationin-a-true-free-market-prices-would0.5511390.466014BINARY2026-09-05T15:34:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
N3O68smB5einV7aBfdZWWill AOC be elected President in 2032?will-aoc-be-elected-president-in-20-cce2688a3e8f0.061591.091223BINARY2032-11-06T22:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
P505Kqjuc7mJn2B5I6jBWill a human walk on the moon again before 2029?will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again0.2648843.897129.89176BINARY2028-12-31T22:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
sC2ZzZcd6UHumanoid robot breaks human marathon record before 2027?humanoid-robot-breaks-human-maratho0.592052.731036BINARY2026-12-31T23:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
RcNs5ch6qUStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? [Polymarket]strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-NyzSudIt9R0.464481.51249.8625BINARY2026-06-30T04:00:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
0q0RRPtSccChina's rebar failure rate below 20% in 2025 national quality check?chinas-rebar-failure-rate-below-200.955071621.7025154BINARY2026-07-29T22:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
c6P0ygNCyUWill the EU-Mercosur Free Trade Agreement be applied in 2026, even if provisiona...will-the-eumercosur-free-trade-agre-5NAR9Qc0dp0.951989.252011BINARY2026-12-31T23:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM
LE0lNqRdQ8Will European Central Bank cut interest rates before June 2026?will-european-central-bank-cut-inte0.27682.67156.3010BINARY2026-05-31T23:59:00.000ZApr 30 8:00 AM