edge-scanner-soccer-spreads

id ▼	scan type ▼	detected at ▼	game id ▼	team code ▼	Kalshi Line ▼	rung ▼	yes exec price ▼	no exec price ▼	spread cents ▼	PIN Anchor ▼	PIN Yes Prob ▼	PIN No Prob ▼	PIN Yes Edge ▼	PIN No Edge ▼	PIN Best Side ▼	confidence ▼	executable ▼	settled at ▼	sub market ▼	is tie ▼

Edge Scanner Summary

YES Pinnacle Calibration (by Time Window)

Bucket	8AM Scan									10AM Scan									2PM Scan									Pre-Game									Closing									Early vs Close
	All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled Δ			With Edge Δ
	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Edge Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
95-100%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
90-95%	1	0.0%	-92.5	1	0.0%	1L	21.1%	-68.00c	-100.0%	1	0.0%	-92.5	1	0.0%	1L	18.4%	-70.00c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
85-90%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
80-85%	1	100.0%	+17.5	1	100.0%	1L	24.6%	+40.92c	+73.1%	1	100.0%	+17.5	1	100.0%	1L	24.6%	+40.92c	+73.1%	1	100.0%	+17.5	1	100.0%	1L	24.7%	+40.92c	+73.1%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
75-80%	1	0.0%	-77.5	1	0.0%	1L	22.4%	-52.00c	-100.0%	1	0.0%	-77.5	1	0.0%	1L	22.8%	-52.00c	-100.0%	1	0.0%	-77.5	1	0.0%	1L	20.1%	-54.00c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
70-75%	3	0.0%	-72.5	3	0.0%	3L	23.7%	-45.00c	-100.0%	2	0.0%	-72.5	2	0.0%	2L	22.1%	-46.50c	-100.0%	1	0.0%	-72.5	1	0.0%	1L	24.3%	-45.00c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
65-70%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	0.0%	-67.5	1	0.0%	1L	24.8%	-42.00c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
60-65%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	100.0%	+37.5	1	100.0%	1L	23.2%	+56.73c	+145.5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
55-60%	2	0.0%	-57.5	2	0.0%	2L	3.3%	-52.50c	-100.0%	4	25.0%	-32.5	4	25.0%	3L	19.1%	-13.69c	-36.5%	6	33.3%	-24.2	5	20.0%	5L	17.1%	-18.71c	-49.5%	2	100.0%	+42.5	2	100.0%	2L	22.9%	+61.84c	+184.6%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
50-55%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	0.0%	-52.5	1	0.0%	1L	17.2%	-35.00c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
45-50%	7	14.3%	-33.2	6	16.7%	6L	23.3%	-7.01c	-30.7%	6	0.0%	-47.5	6	0.0%	6L	27.2%	-20.83c	-100.0%	5	20.0%	-27.5	5	20.0%	5L	27.6%	-0.81c	-4.1%	2	0.0%	-47.5	2	0.0%	2L	24.1%	-23.00c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40-45%	7	0.0%	-42.5	7	0.0%	7L	17.3%	-22.86c	-100.0%	5	0.0%	-42.5	5	0.0%	5L	18.3%	-22.00c	-100.0%	8	0.0%	-42.5	8	0.0%	8L	17.7%	-22.50c	-100.0%	4	0.0%	-42.5	4	0.0%	4L	13.7%	-26.00c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35-40%	5	0.0%	-37.5	4	0.0%	4L	15.1%	-22.00c	-100.0%	3	0.0%	-37.5	3	0.0%	1L	9.4%	-28.33c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	6	0.0%	-37.5	6	0.0%	6L	15.5%	-21.33c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30-35%	5	40.0%	+7.5	5	40.0%	5L	11.5%	+20.25c	+116.4%	1	0.0%	-32.5	1	0.0%	1L	8.5%	-20.00c	-100.0%	2	50.0%	+17.5	1	0.0%	1L	8.5%	-20.00c	-100.0%	2	50.0%	+17.5	2	50.0%	2L	10.4%	+28.63c	+154.8%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25-30%	4	0.0%	-27.5	3	0.0%	3L	8.9%	-17.33c	-100.0%	6	16.7%	-10.8	5	20.0%	5L	9.0%	+0.60c	+3.3%	8	12.5%	-15.0	7	14.3%	7L	7.5%	-5.29c	-28.3%	6	0.0%	-27.5	5	0.0%	5L	4.7%	-21.00c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20-25%	4	0.0%	-22.5	1	0.0%	1L	6.3%	-13.00c	-100.0%	3	0.0%	-22.5	1	0.0%	1L	7.8%	-12.00c	-100.0%	6	0.0%	-22.5	2	0.0%	2L	3.6%	-19.00c	-100.0%	7	14.3%	-8.2	1	100.0%	1L	4.4%	+79.05c	+527.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	1	0.0%	-17.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	3	0.0%	-17.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	3	33.3%	+15.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	2	50.0%	+32.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-15%	3	66.7%	+54.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	4	50.0%	+37.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	2	100.0%	+87.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	100.0%	+87.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5-10%	4	0.0%	-7.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	4	0.0%	-7.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	7	0.0%	-7.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	4	0.0%	-7.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
0-5%	7	28.6%	+26.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	5	40.0%	+37.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	10	40.0%	+37.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	6	33.3%	+30.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

NO Pinnacle Calibration (by Time Window)

Bucket	8AM Scan									10AM Scan									2PM Scan									Pre-Game									Closing									Early vs Close
	All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled Δ			With Edge Δ
	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Edge Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
95-100%	7	71.4%	-26.1	7	71.4%	7L	12.1%	-13.98c	-16.5%	5	60.0%	-37.5	5	60.0%	5L	12.3%	-24.38c	-29.2%	10	60.0%	-37.5	10	60.0%	10L	10.9%	-26.09c	-30.5%	6	66.7%	-30.8	6	66.7%	6L	11.8%	-18.86c	-22.2%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
90-95%	4	100.0%	+7.5	4	100.0%	4L	3.0%	+9.76c	+10.9%	4	100.0%	+7.5	3	100.0%	3L	2.4%	+9.30c	+10.3%	7	100.0%	+7.5	7	100.0%	7L	8.0%	+15.28c	+18.3%	4	100.0%	+7.5	3	100.0%	3L	4.7%	+10.54c	+11.9%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
85-90%	3	33.3%	-54.2	3	33.3%	3L	22.4%	-30.55c	-48.5%	4	50.0%	-37.5	4	50.0%	4L	21.5%	-14.97c	-23.5%	2	0.0%	-87.5	2	0.0%	2L	19.4%	-65.50c	-100.0%	1	0.0%	-87.5	1	0.0%	1L	24.3%	-62.00c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
80-85%	1	100.0%	+17.5	1	100.0%	1L	10.2%	+26.97c	+38.0%	3	100.0%	+17.5	1	100.0%	1L	10.2%	+26.97c	+38.0%	3	66.7%	-15.8	3	66.7%	3L	12.2%	-4.18c	-6.0%	2	50.0%	-32.5	2	50.0%	2L	14.3%	-19.09c	-28.1%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
75-80%	4	100.0%	+22.5	3	100.0%	3L	2.3%	+24.18c	+32.7%	3	100.0%	+22.5	1	100.0%	1L	4.4%	+25.11c	+34.4%	6	100.0%	+22.5	2	100.0%	2L	2.5%	+24.65c	+33.5%	7	85.7%	+8.2	4	100.0%	4L	4.1%	+25.11c	+34.4%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
70-75%	4	100.0%	+27.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	6	83.3%	+10.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	8	87.5%	+15.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	6	100.0%	+27.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
65-70%	5	60.0%	-7.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	100.0%	+32.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	2	50.0%	-17.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	2	50.0%	-17.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
60-65%	5	100.0%	+37.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	3	100.0%	+37.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	6	100.0%	+37.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
55-60%	7	100.0%	+42.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	5	100.0%	+42.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	8	100.0%	+42.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	4	100.0%	+42.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
50-55%	7	85.7%	+33.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	6	100.0%	+47.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	5	80.0%	+27.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	2	100.0%	+47.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
45-50%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	0.0%	-47.5	1	0.0%	1L	15.7%	-27.00c	-100.0%	1	100.0%	+52.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40-45%	2	100.0%	+57.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	4	75.0%	+32.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	5	80.0%	+37.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	2	0.0%	-42.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35-40%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	0.0%	-37.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30-35%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	100.0%	+67.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25-30%	3	100.0%	+72.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	2	100.0%	+72.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	100.0%	+72.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20-25%	1	100.0%	+77.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	100.0%	+77.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	100.0%	+77.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	1	0.0%	-17.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	0.0%	-17.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	0.0%	-17.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-15%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5-10%	1	100.0%	+92.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	100.0%	+92.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
0-5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

YES Our Model Calibration (by Time Window)

Bucket	8AM Scan									10AM Scan									2PM Scan									Pre-Game									Closing									Early vs Close
	All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled Δ			With Edge Δ
	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Edge Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
95-100%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
90-95%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
85-90%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
80-85%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
75-80%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
70-75%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
65-70%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
60-65%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
55-60%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
50-55%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
45-50%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40-45%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35-40%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30-35%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25-30%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20-25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-15%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5-10%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
0-5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

NO Our Model Calibration (by Time Window)

Bucket	8AM Scan									10AM Scan									2PM Scan									Pre-Game									Closing									Early vs Close
	All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled Δ			With Edge Δ
	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Edge Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
95-100%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
90-95%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
85-90%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
80-85%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
75-80%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
70-75%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
65-70%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
60-65%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
55-60%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
50-55%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
45-50%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40-45%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35-40%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30-35%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25-30%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20-25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-15%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5-10%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
0-5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Win Rate by Edge Size (by Time Window)

Edge	8AM Scan							10AM Scan							2PM Scan							Pre-Game							Closing							Early vs Close
Edge	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	—	PnL Δ	ROI Δ	—
0-2%	4	3	75.0%	4L	25939	-8.97c	-10.8%	2	1	50.0%	2L	2219	-8.32c	-14.3%	3	2	66.7%	3L	11156	+2.52c	+4.0%	3	1	33.3%	3L	2722	-8.89c	-21.3%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2-4%	6	4	66.7%	6L	15320	+4.16c	+6.8%	3	3	100.0%	3L	8808	+47.43c	+96.8%	7	4	57.1%	7L	1515	+2.95c	+5.6%	4	2	50.0%	4L	7301	-8.04c	-14.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4-6%	3	2	66.7%	3L	27336	-18.89c	-22.3%	4	2	50.0%	4L	10060	-27.16c	-35.5%	5	3	60.0%	5L	16402	-13.44c	-18.5%	5	5	100.0%	5L	4202	+27.34c	+38.7%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
6-8%	2	1	50.0%	2L	0	-0.92c	-1.8%	2	1	50.0%	2L	12086	-0.42c	-0.8%	3	2	66.7%	3L	1419	+1.08c	+1.7%	2	1	50.0%	2L	22900	+4.99c	+11.3%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8-10%	2	0	0.0%	2L	807	-20.00c	-100.0%	1	0	0.0%	1L	1766	-20.00c	-100.0%	3	0	0.0%	3L	1330	-36.33c	-100.0%	4	2	50.0%	4L	1009	-22.06c	-30.8%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-12%	5	3	60.0%	5L	9838	+1.59c	+2.8%	5	2	40.0%	4L	5565	-19.66c	-33.2%	2	1	50.0%	2L	24181	-28.55c	-36.8%	3	2	66.7%	3L	8256	+18.99c	+41.6%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12-15%	6	1	16.7%	6L	3898	-14.84c	-48.6%	4	3	75.0%	3L	327	+4.38c	+6.4%	7	2	28.6%	7L	11967	-22.20c	-44.7%	4	1	25.0%	4L	7130	-24.79c	-50.3%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	8	5	62.5%	8L	7992	+9.90c	+19.4%	9	1	11.1%	9L	13027	-31.07c	-74.0%	13	7	53.8%	13L	8396	+1.23c	+2.4%	8	3	37.5%	8L	4265	-6.65c	-15.3%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20%+	16	1	6.3%	16L	32610	-28.82c	-82.6%	14	5	35.7%	13L	27843	-0.72c	-2.1%	14	2	14.3%	14L	15825	-18.26c	-57.1%	7	3	42.9%	7L	19598	+10.92c	+36.4%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

YES vs NO Performance (by Time Window)

Side	8AM Scan					10AM Scan					2PM Scan					Pre-Game					Closing					Early vs Close
Side	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI
YES (Buy Yes)	37	10	27.0%	-9.15c	-25.8%	33	9	27.3%	-7.71c	-22.6%	36	7	19.4%	-9.38c	-33.5%	27	7	25.9%	-4.62c	-15.6%	—	—	—	—	—	233	56	24.0%	-9.24c	-28.5%
NO (Buy No)	18	12	66.7%	-13.76c	-17.3%	16	11	68.8%	-10.64c	-13.6%	25	17	68.0%	-11.16c	-14.3%	17	14	82.4%	+1.19c	+1.5%	—	—	—	—	—	110	77	70.0%	-9.64c	-12.3%

Confidence Breakdown (3-Signal Test)

Signals: Spread<5c + Trade<15min + 2+ Books Agree. High=3/3, Medium=2/3, Low=0-1/3

Confidence	8AM Scan					10AM Scan					2PM Scan					Pre-Game					Closing					Early vs Close
	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
HIGH	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
MEDIUM	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
LOW	55	55	40.0%	-586c	-21.4%	46	46	39.1%	-415c	-19.1%	61	61	39.3%	-617c	-20.8%	44	44	47.7%	-105c	-4.8%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Closing Line Value (CLV) — Beat Pinnacle's Close?

If you consistently beat the closing line, you have an edge. Need 2000+ wagers for significance.

Scan	Edges w/ CLV	Beat Close	Beat %
10am	49	26	53.1%
12pm	20	10	50.0%
2pm	57	30	52.6%
6am	52	28	53.8%
8am	55	28	50.9%
manual	26	18	69.2%
ml-fix	9	6	66.7%
pregame	44	22	50.0%
sigma-test	8	6	75.0%
sp-test	8	6	75.0%
sp-test2	7	6	85.7%

Dynamic Model Weights — Which De-Vig Methods Win?

Rolling performance per de-vig method. Weight = blend of win rate + ROI (1.0 = average, >1.5 = strong, <0.5 = weak).

Method	Sport	Market	Window	N	Win %	ROI	Avg Edge	Weight
shin	soccer	ml	14d	20	60.0%	46.2%	8.8c	1.33
shin	soccer	btts	60d	217	65.4%	25.2%	6.5c	1.28
shin	soccer	btts	90d	217	65.4%	25.2%	6.5c	1.28
shin	soccer	total	30d	448	57.4%	18.0%	2.6c	1.16
shin	soccer	total	60d	912	54.1%	8.6%	2.5c	1.08
shin	soccer	total	90d	912	54.1%	8.6%	2.5c	1.08
shin	soccer	btts	30d	104	52.9%	4.9%	7.3c	1.05
shin	soccer	ml	30d	310	50.6%	-1.1%	5.8c	1.00
shin	soccer	total	14d	34	50.0%	-3.2%	3.3c	0.98
shin	soccer	ml	60d	636	48.6%	-1.6%	5.8c	0.98
shin	soccer	ml	90d	636	48.6%	-1.6%	5.8c	0.98
shin	soccer	btts	14d	8	50.0%	-13.2%	6.7c	0.93
shin	soccer	spread	30d	181	45.9%	-17.3%	9.5c	0.87
shin	soccer	spread	60d	343	38.8%	-19.8%	11.1c	0.79
shin	soccer	spread	90d	343	38.8%	-19.8%	11.1c	0.79
shin	soccer	spread	14d	16	25.0%	-62.6%	10.1c	0.44

Meta-Labels — Single Features

Win rate by individual signal. Shows which features predict wins on their own.

Feature	Sample Size	Wins	Win %	Avg PnL/Bet	Avg Edge
mkt: btts	217	142	65.4%	12.7c	6.5c
Small edge (2-4%)	1198	694	57.9%	5.1c	-0.4c
Medium edge (4-8%)	276	155	56.2%	3.6c	5.9c
scan: ml-fix	83	45	54.2%	1.0c	2.6c
Totals (over/under) market	912	493	54.1%	4.1c	2.5c
scan: sigma-test	84	45	53.6%	1.2c	3.4c
scan: sp-test2	85	45	52.9%	0.9c	3.1c
10 AM scan	280	147	52.5%	2.4c	5.7c
No steam move	1988	1025	51.6%	1.7c	5.2c
Confidence not scored yet	494	254	51.4%	0.4c	3.7c
scan: 12pm	137	70	51.1%	2.3c	6.2c
scan: manual	143	73	51.0%	3.0c	4.8c
Low confidence (0-1 signals)	1614	823	51.0%	1.6c	5.8c
Pre-game scan	269	137	50.9%	0.6c	5.3c
8 AM scan	305	154	50.5%	0.9c	5.9c
2 PM scan	338	170	50.3%	0.6c	5.9c
scan: 6am	293	147	50.2%	2.7c	6.2c
scan: sp-test	87	43	49.4%	-2.0c	3.3c
Moneyline market	636	309	48.6%	-0.8c	5.8c
Steam move detected (sharp money)	120	52	43.3%	-5.2c	6.8c
Spread market	343	133	38.8%	-9.4c	11.1c
Extra-large edge (15%+)	342	131	38.3%	-4.8c	20.0c
Large edge (8-15%)	292	97	33.2%	-9.1c	11.2c

Meta-Labels — Feature Combos

Win rate by 2-feature combinations. The best combos tell you when to bet bigger.

Feature	Sample Size	Wins	Win %	Avg PnL/Bet	Avg Edge
scan: manual + Medium edge (4-8%)	14	11	78.6%	28.7c	6.1c
Confidence not scored yet + mkt: btts	57	44	77.2%	20.2c	3.0c
Moneyline market + Medium edge (4-8%)	130	92	70.8%	15.4c	6.0c
mkt: btts + Extra-large edge (15%+)	39	27	69.2%	17.4c	20.8c
mkt: btts + Small edge (2-4%)	97	66	68.0%	15.6c	-0.8c
mkt: btts + Medium edge (4-8%)	42	28	66.7%	10.9c	6.1c
scan: 12pm + Small edge (2-4%)	71	45	63.4%	13.8c	0.4c
Confidence not scored yet + Medium edge (4-8%)	48	30	62.5%	8.2c	6.0c
scan: ml-fix + Medium edge (4-8%)	8	5	62.5%	6.1c	5.9c
scan: sp-test + Medium edge (4-8%)	8	5	62.5%	6.1c	5.9c
scan: sp-test2 + Medium edge (4-8%)	8	5	62.5%	6.1c	5.9c
10 AM scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	34	21	61.8%	6.1c	6.0c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + mkt: btts	160	98	61.3%	10.1c	7.7c
Spread market + Small edge (2-4%)	92	56	60.9%	-0.7c	-1.5c
Totals (over/under) market + Small edge (2-4%)	704	425	60.4%	7.4c	-0.2c
scan: 6am + Small edge (2-4%)	158	95	60.1%	8.9c	-0.1c
8 AM scan + Small edge (2-4%)	167	100	59.9%	5.8c	-0.2c
10 AM scan + Small edge (2-4%)	157	94	59.9%	6.5c	-0.2c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Small edge (2-4%)	879	517	58.8%	6.5c	-0.0c
scan: manual + Small edge (2-4%)	84	49	58.3%	6.0c	-1.1c
scan: sigma-test + Small edge (2-4%)	55	32	58.2%	2.8c	-1.8c
Spread market + Medium edge (4-8%)	31	18	58.1%	-4.9c	5.6c
Pre-game scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	44	25	56.8%	3.9c	5.8c
Pre-game scan + Small edge (2-4%)	147	83	56.5%	3.4c	-0.1c
2 PM scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	48	27	56.3%	3.0c	6.0c
2 PM scan + Small edge (2-4%)	182	102	56.0%	4.4c	0.1c
Confidence not scored yet + Small edge (2-4%)	319	177	55.5%	1.4c	-1.5c
scan: ml-fix + Small edge (2-4%)	58	32	55.2%	0.1c	-1.9c
scan: sp-test2 + Small edge (2-4%)	58	32	55.2%	0.6c	-1.6c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Medium edge (4-8%)	228	125	54.8%	2.6c	5.9c
Confidence not scored yet + Totals (over/under) market	214	117	54.7%	0.4c	0.4c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Totals (over/under) market	698	376	53.9%	5.3c	3.2c
mkt: btts + Large edge (8-15%)	39	21	53.8%	2.9c	10.8c
scan: 6am + Medium edge (4-8%)	38	20	52.6%	4.1c	5.8c
Confidence not scored yet + No steam move	478	250	52.3%	1.1c	3.6c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + No steam move	1510	775	51.3%	1.9c	5.7c
8 AM scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	45	23	51.1%	0.3c	6.1c
scan: sp-test + Small edge (2-4%)	59	30	50.8%	-2.5c	-1.4c
Totals (over/under) market + Extra-large edge (15%+)	66	33	50.0%	8.5c	19.3c
scan: ml-fix + Large edge (8-15%)	8	4	50.0%	3.9c	11.6c
scan: sigma-test + Medium edge (4-8%)	8	4	50.0%	-9.0c	6.3c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Moneyline market	474	236	49.8%	-0.1c	5.9c
Moneyline market + Small edge (2-4%)	305	147	48.2%	-1.7c	-0.4c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Steam move detected (sharp money)	104	48	46.2%	-2.7c	6.9c
scan: sigma-test + Extra-large edge (15%+)	11	5	45.5%	3.6c	20.2c
Confidence not scored yet + Moneyline market	162	73	45.1%	-2.7c	5.6c
scan: ml-fix + Extra-large edge (15%+)	9	4	44.4%	0.2c	20.8c
scan: sp-test2 + Large edge (8-15%)	9	4	44.4%	1.2c	11.7c
scan: 12pm + Medium edge (4-8%)	21	9	42.9%	-8.5c	5.7c
scan: manual + Extra-large edge (15%+)	24	10	41.7%	-0.6c	19.1c
Confidence not scored yet + Extra-large edge (15%+)	67	27	40.3%	-1.8c	20.0c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Spread market	282	113	40.1%	-9.3c	11.1c
10 AM scan + Extra-large edge (15%+)	50	20	40.0%	-4.4c	19.8c
scan: 12pm + Extra-large edge (15%+)	25	10	40.0%	-2.7c	19.3c
Closing scan (1 min before game) + Small edge (2-4%)	5	2	40.0%	-11.5c	-2.4c
scan: sigma-test + Large edge (8-15%)	10	4	40.0%	-2.4c	11.4c
scan: sp-test + Large edge (8-15%)	10	4	40.0%	-5.0c	11.6c
scan: sp-test + Extra-large edge (15%+)	10	4	40.0%	-3.0c	20.5c
scan: sp-test2 + Extra-large edge (15%+)	10	4	40.0%	-1.6c	20.4c
Moneyline market + Large edge (8-15%)	103	41	39.8%	-6.1c	11.0c
Pre-game scan + Extra-large edge (15%+)	38	15	39.5%	-3.5c	19.5c
2 PM scan + Large edge (8-15%)	51	20	39.2%	-7.9c	11.0c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Extra-large edge (15%+)	275	104	37.8%	-5.5c	20.0c
scan: 6am + Extra-large edge (15%+)	54	20	37.0%	-6.5c	20.5c
2 PM scan + Extra-large edge (15%+)	57	21	36.8%	-5.8c	19.8c
Pre-game scan + Large edge (8-15%)	40	14	35.0%	-9.7c	11.0c
Confidence not scored yet + Large edge (8-15%)	60	20	33.3%	-8.5c	11.5c
8 AM scan + Large edge (8-15%)	39	13	33.3%	-4.5c	11.4c
8 AM scan + Extra-large edge (15%+)	54	18	33.3%	-9.5c	20.4c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Large edge (8-15%)	232	77	33.2%	-9.2c	11.1c
Confidence not scored yet + Spread market	61	20	32.8%	-9.6c	10.9c
10 AM scan + Large edge (8-15%)	39	12	30.8%	-8.5c	10.9c
Spread market + Extra-large edge (15%+)	139	42	30.2%	-10.8c	20.3c
scan: 12pm + Large edge (8-15%)	20	6	30.0%	-21.0c	10.9c
Moneyline market + Extra-large edge (15%+)	98	29	29.6%	-14.0c	19.6c
Closing scan (1 min before game) + Large edge (8-15%)	7	2	28.6%	-6.2c	11.7c
scan: 6am + Large edge (8-15%)	43	12	27.9%	-10.0c	11.3c

Alpha Decay — Is the Edge Fading? (Last 16 Weeks)

Weekly ROI per strategy. Declining ROI = strategy crowding out. Each row is one ISO week.

Strategy	Week	N	Win %	ROI	Avg Edge
shin::btts	2026-W18	4	50.0%	-9.0%	8.0c
	2026-W17	4	50.0%	-17.0%	5.4c
	2026-W16	68	47.1%	-2.4%	7.5c
	2026-W15	40	60.0%	11.6%	8.1c
	2026-W14	55	80.0%	59.1%	8.7c
	2026-W13	46	82.6%	41.5%	1.1c

shin::ml	2026-W18	14	42.9%	27.5%	8.2c
	2026-W17	18	66.7%	22.8%	8.6c
	2026-W16	181	48.6%	-4.7%	6.2c
	2026-W15	123	54.5%	8.8%	4.6c
	2026-W14	166	45.8%	-6.2%	6.4c
	2026-W13	134	44.8%	-7.3%	5.1c

shin::spread	2026-W18	16	25.0%	-62.6%	10.1c
	2026-W17	12	66.7%	21.8%	4.5c
	2026-W16	82	37.8%	-18.1%	10.2c
	2026-W15	83	50.6%	-19.8%	10.7c
	2026-W14	109	32.1%	-12.4%	12.7c
	2026-W13	41	31.7%	-29.0%	11.7c

shin::total	2026-W18	28	57.1%	10.2%	3.4c
	2026-W17	22	40.9%	7.8%	4.5c
	2026-W16	266	57.1%	16.7%	2.7c
	2026-W15	169	54.4%	14.6%	3.6c
	2026-W14	250	51.2%	3.7%	2.3c
	2026-W13	169	56.8%	1.7%	0.7c
	2026-W12	8	0.0%	-100.0%	12.2c

Odds-as-Features — Which Numbers Predict Wins?

Point-biserial correlation between each edge feature and win/loss. Higher |r| = more predictive. Positive r = higher value → more wins.

#	Feature	N	Mean (Win)	Mean (Loss)	Correlation	\|r\|
1	Execution Price	2108	0.5605	0.3996	0.3410	0.3410
2	Net Edge	2108	0.0400	0.0668	-0.1642	0.1642
3	Net Edge (Yes)	2108	-0.0385	0.0030	-0.1577	0.1577
4	Net Edge (No)	2108	-0.0370	-0.0820	0.1565	0.1565
5	Exec Price (Yes)	2108	0.4382	0.3935	0.1033	0.1033
6	Exec Price (No)	2108	0.6072	0.6465	-0.0891	0.0891
7	Pinnacle Move	879	0.0210	0.0315	-0.0477	0.0477
8	Steam Magnitude	2108	0.0123	0.0170	-0.0389	0.0389
9	Steam Detected	2108	0.0483	0.0660	-0.0381	0.0381
10	Spread (cents)	2104	4.5395	3.9903	0.0351	0.0351
11	Model Prob (No)	2108	0.5830	0.5765	0.0147	0.0147
12	Model Prob (Yes)	2108	0.4122	0.4112	0.0023	0.0023
13	Trade Volume	1614	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
14	Taker % (Yes)	1614	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
15	Soft Book Consensus	1614	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
16	Is Longshot	2108	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000

Fill Quality Monitoring — Are We Getting Profiled?

Tracks execution quality over time. Rising slippage or widening spreads may indicate account profiling by market makers.

Period	Sport	Market	N	Avg Spread	Avg Slippage	Fill Rate	Avg Edge	Taker %
2026-W18	soccer	total	28	4.8	18.63%	100%	3.36%	0.0%
2026-W18	soccer	spread	16	4.3	47.28%	100%	10.10%	0.0%
2026-W18	soccer	ml	14	1.0	14.79%	100%	8.22%	0.0%
2026-W18	soccer	btts	4	1.3	0.63%	100%	7.98%	0.0%
2026-W17	soccer	total	24	5.1	15.31%	100%	3.20%	0.0%
2026-W17	soccer	spread	12	7.8	33.25%	100%	4.52%	0.0%
2026-W17	soccer	ml	18	1.0	19.39%	100%	8.58%	0.0%
2026-W17	soccer	btts	4	1.5	0.75%	100%	5.42%	0.0%
2026-W16	soccer	total	267	3.3	22.63%	100%	2.60%	0.0%
2026-W16	soccer	spread	89	11.9	28.78%	100%	8.87%	0.0%
2026-W16	soccer	ml	181	1.5	25.76%	100%	6.16%	0.0%
2026-W16	soccer	btts	68	5.8	10.22%	100%	7.48%	0.0%
2026-W15	soccer	total	169	1.9	23.60%	100%	3.55%	0.0%
2026-W15	soccer	spread	85	5.9	40.45%	100%	10.00%	0.0%
2026-W15	soccer	ml	123	1.3	25.37%	100%	4.63%	0.0%
2026-W15	soccer	btts	40	9.0	5.36%	100%	8.09%	0.0%
2026-W14	soccer	total	254	4.4	24.10%	100%	2.08%	0.0%
2026-W14	soccer	spread	127	9.9	21.91%	100%	10.42%	0.0%
2026-W14	soccer	ml	166	1.3	21.77%	100%	6.35%	0.0%
2026-W14	soccer	btts	55	5.8	13.71%	100%	8.70%	0.0%
2026-W13	soccer	total	170	6.3	27.07%	100%	0.85%	0.0%
2026-W13	soccer	spread	59	19.0	36.64%	100%	6.60%	0.0%
2026-W13	soccer	ml	134	2.2	17.53%	100%	5.11%	0.0%
2026-W13	soccer	btts	46	15.1	12.04%	100%	1.06%	0.0%
2026-W12	soccer	total	8	5.3	23.50%	50%	12.25%	0.0%
2026-W12	soccer	spread	9	7.3	3.56%	67%	10.85%	0.0%
2026-W12	soccer	ml	15	5.0	5.80%	67%	-0.57%	0.0%

Granger Causality — Does X Predict Y?

Tests if lagged values of one series help predict another. Significant (p<0.05) means X Granger-causes Y — useful for timing entries.

X (Cause)	Y (Effect)	Lag	F-Stat	p-value	Direction	Significant?	N
edge_net_edge	outcome	1	51.156	<0.001	negative	YES	39127
edge_spread_cents	outcome	1	39.222	<0.001	positive	YES	39127
edge_steam_magnitude	outcome	1	2.476	0.1156	positive	no	39127

Data Viewer: edge-scanner-soccer-spreads

sports_edges (0 total rows, showing 0 of 0)