edge-scanner-nba-totals

id ▼	scan type ▼	detected at ▼	game id ▼	Kalshi Line ▼	rung ▼	yes exec price ▼	no exec price ▼	spread cents ▼	PIN Anchor ▼	PIN Yes Prob ▼	PIN No Prob ▼	PIN Yes Edge ▼	PIN No Edge ▼	PIN Best Side ▼	confidence ▼	executable ▼	settled at ▼	sub market ▼	is tie ▼

Edge Scanner Summary

YES Pinnacle Calibration (by Time Window)

Bucket	8AM Scan									10AM Scan									2PM Scan									Pre-Game									Closing									Early vs Close
	All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled Δ			With Edge Δ
	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Edge Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
95-100%	1	100.0%	+2.5	1	100.0%	1L	12.0%	+16.74c	+20.4%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	8	100.0%	+2.5	7	100.0%	6L	10.0%	+12.75c	+14.8%	1	100.0%	+2.5	1	100.0%	1L	10.0%	+13.95c	+16.4%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
90-95%	36	83.3%	-9.2	36	83.3%	36L	7.8%	-0.63c	-0.8%	38	84.2%	-8.3	37	83.8%	36L	7.6%	-0.39c	-0.5%	49	79.6%	-12.9	43	76.7%	36L	9.2%	-5.95c	-7.3%	38	84.2%	-8.3	38	84.2%	38L	7.4%	-0.50c	-0.6%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
85-90%	82	86.6%	-0.9	72	84.7%	72L	5.8%	+3.37c	+4.2%	80	87.5%	+0.0	69	85.5%	61L	5.8%	+4.07c	+5.1%	89	83.1%	-4.4	78	80.8%	70L	6.8%	+0.10c	+0.1%	63	77.8%	-9.7	57	75.4%	57L	6.5%	-5.34c	-6.7%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
80-85%	72	81.9%	-0.6	59	79.7%	59L	4.9%	+2.35c	+3.1%	73	82.2%	-0.3	54	81.5%	51L	5.0%	+3.94c	+5.2%	77	72.7%	-9.8	63	68.3%	55L	6.4%	-7.63c	-10.2%	53	66.0%	-16.5	50	66.0%	50L	5.8%	-10.53c	-14.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
75-80%	60	76.7%	-0.8	44	70.5%	44L	5.3%	-1.41c	-2.0%	58	70.7%	-6.8	38	65.8%	33L	5.2%	-6.23c	-8.8%	67	71.6%	-5.9	49	63.3%	42L	5.6%	-8.60c	-12.2%	53	73.6%	-3.9	40	67.5%	40L	5.6%	-4.33c	-6.1%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
70-75%	60	66.7%	-5.8	45	57.8%	45L	4.7%	-9.78c	-14.8%	66	71.2%	-1.3	46	67.4%	40L	4.9%	-0.16c	-0.2%	68	72.1%	-0.4	51	66.7%	45L	5.5%	-0.30c	-0.5%	51	60.8%	-11.7	43	55.8%	43L	5.0%	-11.45c	-17.4%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
65-70%	60	70.0%	+2.5	32	59.4%	32L	2.6%	-5.30c	-8.4%	53	69.8%	+2.3	26	46.2%	21L	2.9%	-17.94c	-28.5%	59	59.3%	-8.2	35	40.0%	30L	4.9%	-21.82c	-35.9%	52	69.2%	+1.7	34	64.7%	34L	3.0%	+0.51c	+0.8%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
60-65%	53	58.5%	-4.0	35	54.3%	35L	2.9%	-4.82c	-8.4%	54	57.4%	-5.1	32	59.4%	30L	3.2%	-0.12c	-0.2%	57	59.6%	-2.9	33	51.5%	28L	4.6%	-6.15c	-11.0%	37	56.8%	-5.7	25	48.0%	25L	2.5%	-11.69c	-20.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
55-60%	57	61.4%	+3.9	27	48.1%	27L	3.8%	-5.26c	-10.2%	62	61.3%	+3.8	29	48.3%	25L	3.5%	-5.49c	-10.5%	65	58.5%	+1.0	33	51.5%	28L	2.9%	-2.76c	-5.3%	49	53.1%	-4.4	27	37.0%	27L	2.3%	-17.75c	-33.1%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
50-55%	57	56.1%	+3.6	12	41.7%	12L	3.2%	-6.80c	-14.5%	53	58.5%	+6.0	14	57.1%	13L	3.0%	+7.90c	+16.7%	50	46.0%	-6.5	13	23.1%	13L	3.5%	-24.23c	-52.2%	39	56.4%	+3.9	6	66.7%	6L	1.6%	+15.48c	+31.7%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
45-50%	43	41.9%	-5.6	8	12.5%	8L	11.8%	-22.11c	-64.8%	47	42.6%	-4.9	7	0.0%	6L	13.1%	-32.86c	-100.0%	51	47.1%	-0.4	10	10.0%	8L	6.9%	-30.10c	-75.8%	41	36.6%	-10.9	6	0.0%	6L	9.6%	-36.50c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40-45%	62	48.4%	+5.9	13	38.5%	13L	12.1%	+8.35c	+29.6%	56	50.0%	+7.5	14	42.9%	12L	11.7%	+12.20c	+42.7%	56	30.4%	-12.1	12	25.0%	11L	8.7%	-7.81c	-24.8%	47	38.3%	-4.2	8	37.5%	8L	13.2%	+8.49c	+31.3%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35-40%	44	40.9%	+3.4	9	22.2%	9L	14.6%	+0.17c	+0.8%	48	45.8%	+8.3	9	22.2%	9L	13.3%	-1.05c	-4.7%	51	39.2%	+1.7	8	25.0%	7L	11.1%	-0.41c	-1.7%	39	35.9%	-1.6	6	33.3%	6L	10.2%	+6.93c	+28.1%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30-35%	62	41.9%	+9.4	8	12.5%	8L	10.2%	-8.63c	-42.1%	63	39.7%	+7.2	8	25.0%	8L	10.2%	+2.77c	+13.2%	65	29.2%	-3.3	11	18.2%	9L	7.1%	-6.90c	-28.5%	47	34.0%	+1.5	7	14.3%	7L	8.5%	-9.29c	-40.7%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25-30%	65	33.8%	+6.3	9	11.1%	9L	8.4%	-7.34c	-41.3%	61	37.7%	+10.2	10	20.0%	10L	8.4%	+1.07c	+6.0%	59	23.7%	-3.8	8	0.0%	6L	6.9%	-19.13c	-100.0%	44	25.0%	-2.5	6	16.7%	6L	6.1%	-4.34c	-21.7%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20-25%	64	29.7%	+7.2	9	0.0%	9L	5.6%	-15.89c	-100.0%	68	30.9%	+8.4	8	0.0%	8L	7.1%	-14.25c	-100.0%	72	22.2%	-0.3	10	10.0%	7L	6.2%	-5.77c	-38.0%	48	18.8%	-3.8	7	0.0%	7L	4.9%	-17.00c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	69	23.2%	+5.7	2	0.0%	2L	2.0%	-14.00c	-100.0%	65	21.5%	+4.0	2	0.0%	2L	5.1%	-11.00c	-100.0%	76	22.4%	+4.9	3	0.0%	—	6.6%	-9.00c	-100.0%	52	23.1%	+5.6	3	0.0%	3L	2.7%	-12.33c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-15%	49	26.5%	+14.0	1	0.0%	1L	2.0%	-12.00c	-100.0%	46	28.3%	+15.8	1	0.0%	1L	2.0%	-12.00c	-100.0%	50	22.0%	+9.5	2	0.0%	—	4.3%	-6.00c	-100.0%	35	22.9%	+10.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5-10%	15	20.0%	+12.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	17	17.6%	+10.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	21	14.3%	+6.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	18	11.1%	+3.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
0-5%	1	0.0%	-2.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	0.0%	-2.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	2	0.0%	-2.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	0.0%	-2.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

NO Pinnacle Calibration (by Time Window)

Bucket	8AM Scan									10AM Scan									2PM Scan									Pre-Game									Closing									Early vs Close
	All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled Δ			With Edge Δ
	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Edge Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
95-100%	1	100.0%	+2.5	1	100.0%	1L	19.0%	+22.32c	+29.4%	1	100.0%	+2.5	1	100.0%	—	19.0%	+22.32c	+29.4%	2	100.0%	+2.5	2	100.0%	2L	18.6%	+20.46c	+26.2%	1	100.0%	+2.5	1	100.0%	1L	8.2%	+13.02c	+15.1%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
90-95%	15	80.0%	-12.5	15	80.0%	15L	8.4%	-3.12c	-3.8%	17	82.4%	-10.1	16	81.3%	14L	8.0%	-2.18c	-2.6%	22	86.4%	-6.1	20	85.0%	17L	8.0%	+1.62c	+2.0%	18	88.9%	-3.6	18	88.9%	18L	8.0%	+5.15c	+6.2%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
85-90%	49	73.5%	-14.0	43	74.4%	43L	6.3%	-5.98c	-7.5%	47	72.3%	-15.2	42	71.4%	39L	6.6%	-8.95c	-11.3%	49	77.6%	-9.9	45	75.6%	38L	6.1%	-5.43c	-6.8%	35	77.1%	-10.4	35	77.1%	35L	6.6%	-3.40c	-4.3%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
80-85%	69	76.8%	-5.7	57	77.2%	57L	4.9%	-0.30c	-0.4%	64	78.1%	-4.4	52	76.9%	47L	5.3%	-0.27c	-0.4%	76	77.6%	-4.9	64	76.6%	59L	5.5%	-0.49c	-0.6%	52	76.9%	-5.6	48	75.0%	48L	5.8%	-1.36c	-1.8%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
75-80%	64	70.3%	-7.2	46	67.4%	46L	4.4%	-5.86c	-8.1%	68	69.1%	-8.4	46	67.4%	43L	4.7%	-5.25c	-7.4%	72	77.8%	+0.3	56	75.0%	50L	4.8%	+2.36c	+3.3%	48	81.3%	+3.8	39	76.9%	39L	3.9%	+3.55c	+4.9%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
70-75%	65	66.2%	-6.3	40	62.5%	40L	3.5%	-6.54c	-9.7%	61	62.3%	-10.2	34	61.8%	29L	4.8%	-5.91c	-8.9%	59	76.3%	+3.8	40	65.0%	35L	4.2%	-3.41c	-5.1%	44	75.0%	+2.5	35	74.3%	35L	3.2%	+4.55c	+6.7%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
65-70%	62	58.1%	-9.4	30	50.0%	30L	3.9%	-13.63c	-21.9%	63	60.3%	-7.2	31	54.8%	27L	3.6%	-9.25c	-14.8%	65	70.8%	+3.3	33	63.6%	28L	3.4%	-0.92c	-1.5%	47	66.0%	-1.5	25	60.0%	25L	3.9%	-3.49c	-5.6%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
60-65%	44	59.1%	-3.4	11	63.6%	11L	2.9%	+3.96c	+6.8%	48	54.2%	-8.3	13	46.2%	12L	3.1%	-12.87c	-22.3%	51	60.8%	-1.7	15	46.7%	15L	3.7%	-12.18c	-21.2%	39	64.1%	+1.6	15	60.0%	15L	2.1%	-0.83c	-1.4%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
55-60%	62	51.6%	-5.9	11	36.4%	11L	7.6%	-13.34c	-27.5%	56	50.0%	-7.5	11	27.3%	10L	8.3%	-21.42c	-44.9%	56	69.6%	+12.1	9	44.4%	7L	4.5%	-8.03c	-15.7%	47	61.7%	+4.2	11	54.5%	11L	7.3%	+4.56c	+9.5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
50-55%	45	55.6%	+3.1	10	50.0%	10L	14.1%	+11.69c	+32.3%	50	56.0%	+3.5	11	54.5%	9L	13.0%	+14.94c	+40.0%	53	50.9%	-1.6	9	44.4%	9L	9.3%	+1.47c	+3.6%	42	61.9%	+9.4	7	42.9%	7L	13.6%	+4.89c	+13.5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
45-50%	55	45.5%	-2.0	9	11.1%	9L	15.2%	-19.81c	-65.3%	50	42.0%	-5.5	10	10.0%	9L	14.3%	-21.83c	-69.8%	48	56.3%	+8.8	9	22.2%	8L	11.7%	-12.46c	-37.0%	39	43.6%	-3.9	5	0.0%	5L	13.5%	-31.60c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40-45%	57	38.6%	-3.9	15	6.7%	15L	16.4%	-16.56c	-72.2%	62	38.7%	-3.8	16	12.5%	16L	15.5%	-12.09c	-50.3%	65	41.5%	-1.0	16	12.5%	15L	14.0%	-13.77c	-53.6%	48	47.9%	+5.4	11	0.0%	11L	17.4%	-22.09c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35-40%	53	41.5%	+4.0	11	36.4%	11L	13.9%	+12.55c	+57.0%	54	42.6%	+5.1	11	27.3%	10L	14.2%	+4.14c	+19.1%	57	40.4%	+2.9	14	14.3%	11L	11.6%	-10.31c	-43.2%	37	43.2%	+5.7	9	22.2%	9L	11.6%	-3.34c	-13.6%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30-35%	60	30.0%	-2.5	18	11.1%	18L	11.1%	-9.26c	-46.8%	53	30.2%	-2.3	18	5.6%	18L	11.1%	-14.58c	-73.5%	59	40.7%	+8.2	17	5.9%	16L	11.7%	-13.85c	-71.3%	52	30.8%	-1.7	13	15.4%	13L	9.7%	-6.59c	-31.1%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25-30%	60	33.3%	+5.8	7	0.0%	7L	9.2%	-16.86c	-100.0%	66	28.8%	+1.3	8	0.0%	8L	9.0%	-17.25c	-100.0%	68	27.9%	+0.4	11	0.0%	9L	9.2%	-17.18c	-100.0%	51	39.2%	+11.7	6	0.0%	6L	7.7%	-18.00c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20-25%	60	23.3%	+0.8	7	0.0%	7L	7.7%	-14.00c	-100.0%	58	29.3%	+6.8	8	0.0%	8L	6.3%	-15.75c	-100.0%	67	28.4%	+5.9	11	0.0%	9L	6.1%	-15.18c	-100.0%	53	26.4%	+3.9	8	0.0%	8L	6.7%	-15.13c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	72	18.1%	+0.6	3	0.0%	3L	4.4%	-12.67c	-100.0%	73	17.8%	+0.3	5	0.0%	5L	3.3%	-13.60c	-100.0%	77	27.3%	+9.8	5	0.0%	3L	5.1%	-11.60c	-100.0%	53	34.0%	+16.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-15%	83	13.3%	+0.8	1	0.0%	1L	0.1%	-11.00c	-100.0%	82	12.2%	-0.3	2	0.0%	2L	1.4%	-10.00c	-100.0%	89	16.9%	+4.4	3	0.0%	1L	4.0%	-7.67c	-100.0%	63	22.2%	+9.7	1	0.0%	1L	0.1%	-11.00c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5-10%	35	17.1%	+9.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	36	16.7%	+9.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	49	20.4%	+12.9	6	0.0%	—	2.3%	-5.00c	-100.0%	38	15.8%	+8.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
0-5%	1	0.0%	-2.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	9	0.0%	-2.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	0.0%	-2.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

YES Our Model Calibration (by Time Window)

Bucket	8AM Scan									10AM Scan									2PM Scan									Pre-Game									Closing									Early vs Close
	All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled Δ			With Edge Δ
	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Edge Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
95-100%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
90-95%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
85-90%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
80-85%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
75-80%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
70-75%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
65-70%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
60-65%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
55-60%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
50-55%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
45-50%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40-45%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35-40%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30-35%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25-30%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20-25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-15%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5-10%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
0-5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

NO Our Model Calibration (by Time Window)

Bucket	8AM Scan									10AM Scan									2PM Scan									Pre-Game									Closing									Early vs Close
	All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled Δ			With Edge Δ
	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Edge Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
95-100%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
90-95%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
85-90%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
80-85%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
75-80%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
70-75%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
65-70%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
60-65%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
55-60%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
50-55%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
45-50%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40-45%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35-40%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30-35%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25-30%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20-25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-15%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5-10%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
0-5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Win Rate by Edge Size (by Time Window)

Edge	8AM Scan							10AM Scan							2PM Scan							Pre-Game							Closing							Early vs Close
Edge	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	—	PnL Δ	ROI Δ	—
0-2%	191	116	60.7%	191L	28514	-5.46c	-8.4%	170	114	67.1%	149L	38477	+0.82c	+1.3%	166	104	62.7%	146L	41348	-1.11c	-1.8%	146	87	59.6%	146L	88592	-5.18c	-8.2%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2-4%	195	149	76.4%	195L	20681	+4.31c	+6.1%	182	131	72.0%	158L	28540	+2.18c	+3.2%	209	139	66.5%	180L	22544	-0.95c	-1.4%	151	100	66.2%	151L	47921	-2.53c	-3.7%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4-6%	85	59	69.4%	85L	21539	+1.29c	+1.9%	93	68	73.1%	86L	32444	+4.88c	+7.3%	110	80	72.7%	96L	19723	+8.34c	+13.3%	98	58	59.2%	98L	39966	-8.72c	-13.1%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
6-8%	75	47	62.7%	75L	11973	-3.26c	-5.1%	89	53	59.6%	81L	16168	-7.39c	-11.3%	105	58	55.2%	82L	16813	-10.79c	-16.6%	76	51	67.1%	76L	30577	-1.86c	-2.8%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8-10%	69	52	75.4%	69L	11653	+8.78c	+13.6%	65	49	75.4%	64L	20879	+12.31c	+20.2%	110	75	68.2%	87L	14477	+0.60c	+0.9%	87	60	69.0%	87L	27284	-0.58c	-0.8%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-12%	34	28	82.4%	34L	18470	+24.95c	+45.7%	35	28	80.0%	34L	15732	+22.10c	+39.9%	52	34	65.4%	48L	18396	+5.85c	+10.1%	33	23	69.7%	33L	25656	+6.18c	+9.9%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12-15%	31	20	64.5%	31L	21351	+18.72c	+43.3%	29	18	62.1%	29L	22724	+18.55c	+45.4%	32	11	34.4%	28L	38434	-11.94c	-26.4%	17	5	29.4%	17L	6808	-12.42c	-30.2%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	41	25	61.0%	41L	26768	+26.12c	+82.0%	40	24	60.0%	37L	22734	+24.84c	+77.0%	45	21	46.7%	44L	31455	+1.85c	+4.3%	22	5	22.7%	22L	884	-10.66c	-32.8%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20%+	36	25	69.4%	36L	46385	+35.32c	+115.1%	36	24	66.7%	34L	56782	+32.91c	+107.8%	26	8	30.8%	23L	48967	-1.85c	-5.9%	21	1	4.8%	21L	0	-21.78c	-82.9%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

YES vs NO Performance (by Time Window)

Side	8AM Scan					10AM Scan					2PM Scan					Pre-Game					Closing					Early vs Close
Side	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI
YES (Buy Yes)	553	378	68.4%	+5.45c	+8.9%	553	375	67.8%	+5.05c	+8.3%	598	349	58.4%	-3.97c	-6.5%	443	246	55.5%	-8.12c	-13.0%	—	—	—	—	—	3785	2395	63.3%	+1.59c	+2.6%
NO (Buy No)	459	297	64.7%	+3.37c	+5.7%	456	286	62.7%	+2.05c	+3.5%	495	324	65.5%	+5.48c	+9.4%	365	220	60.3%	-0.74c	-1.2%	—	—	—	—	—	3015	1876	62.2%	+2.41c	+4.1%

Confidence Breakdown (3-Signal Test)

Signals: Spread<5c + Trade<15min + 2+ Books Agree. High=3/3, Medium=2/3, Low=0-1/3

Confidence	8AM Scan					10AM Scan					2PM Scan					Pre-Game					Closing					Early vs Close
	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
HIGH	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
MEDIUM	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
LOW	1012	1012	66.7%	+4560c	+7.5%	918	918	66.1%	+4277c	+7.8%	949	949	62.3%	+19c	+0.0%	808	808	57.7%	-3868c	-7.8%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Closing Line Value (CLV) — Beat Pinnacle's Close?

If you consistently beat the closing line, you have an edge. Need 2000+ wagers for significance.

Scan	Edges w/ CLV	Beat Close	Beat %
10am	1009	223	22.1%
12pm	234	85	36.3%
2pm	1077	244	22.7%
6am	667	200	30.0%
8am	1012	212	20.9%
injury-alert	959	308	32.1%
manual	474	105	22.2%
ml-fix	107	29	27.1%
pregame	808	154	19.1%
sigma-test	117	12	10.3%
sp-test	116	17	14.7%
sp-test2	112	23	20.5%

Dynamic Model Weights — Which De-Vig Methods Win?

Rolling performance per de-vig method. Weight = blend of win rate + ROI (1.0 = average, >1.5 = strong, <0.5 = weak).

Method	Sport	Market	Window	N	Win %	ROI	Avg Edge	Weight
shin	nba	ml	14d	74	68.9%	35.7%	5.1c	1.37
shin	nba	ml	30d	228	64.9%	28.3%	3.5c	1.29
shin	nba	ml	60d	740	64.3%	14.3%	3.3c	1.21
shin	nba	ml	90d	740	64.3%	14.3%	3.3c	1.21
shin	nba	total	30d	1696	62.4%	10.2%	5.0c	1.18
shin	nba	total	60d	6800	62.8%	3.3%	4.2c	1.14
shin	nba	total	90d	6800	62.8%	3.3%	4.2c	1.14
shin	nba	total	14d	513	58.9%	10.3%	7.2c	1.14
shin	nba	spread	30d	1867	49.3%	12.3%	7.0c	1.05
implied	nba	teamTotal	14d	855	53.8%	-7.9%	6.2c	1.00
shin	nba	spread	14d	760	44.6%	3.2%	8.5c	0.96
implied	nba	teamTotal	30d	2512	51.0%	-12.1%	3.3c	0.95
shin	nba	spread	60d	5601	41.1%	3.4%	4.8c	0.93
shin	nba	spread	90d	5601	41.1%	3.4%	4.8c	0.93
implied	nba	teamTotal	60d	7495	49.3%	-13.9%	-0.1c	0.92
implied	nba	teamTotal	90d	7495	49.3%	-13.9%	-0.1c	0.92

Meta-Labels — Single Features

Win rate by individual signal. Shows which features predict wins on their own.

Feature	Sample Size	Wins	Win %	Avg PnL/Bet	Avg Edge
Moneyline market	740	476	64.3%	7.8c	3.3c
Scheduled scan	431	272	63.1%	1.1c	3.7c
Totals (over/under) market	6800	4271	62.8%	2.0c	4.2c
8 AM scan	2751	1546	56.2%	1.8c	1.9c
Steam move detected (sharp money)	4819	2685	55.7%	-0.1c	3.7c
10 AM scan	2873	1547	53.8%	0.4c	2.9c
scan: injury-alert	3404	1831	53.8%	1.9c	4.1c
Closing scan (1 min before game)	3264	1755	53.8%	-2.2c	2.8c
scan: 6am	2159	1156	53.5%	0.8c	1.7c
Large edge (8-15%)	2495	1327	53.2%	0.8c	10.9c
Low confidence (0-1 signals)	12983	6867	52.9%	-1.3c	2.8c
Small edge (2-4%)	13346	7013	52.5%	-3.2c	-2.2c
scan: 12pm	913	477	52.2%	-2.1c	6.0c
Medium edge (4-8%)	2657	1383	52.1%	-2.7c	5.9c
2 PM scan	2936	1509	51.4%	-3.1c	3.7c
No steam move	15817	8059	51.0%	-2.0c	2.4c
scan: manual	1836	932	50.8%	-3.6c	1.1c
scan: recovery	197	100	50.8%	-1.9c	5.2c
Confidence not scored yet	7653	3877	50.7%	-2.0c	2.6c
mkt: teamTotal	7495	3693	49.3%	-7.7c	-0.1c
scan: sigma-test	442	214	48.4%	-5.3c	0.3c
Extra-large edge (15%+)	2138	1021	47.8%	7.7c	20.2c
Pre-game scan	1843	878	47.6%	-7.8c	2.3c
scan: sp-test	437	197	45.1%	-8.4c	0.7c

Meta-Labels — Feature Combos

Win rate by 2-feature combinations. The best combos tell you when to bet bigger.

Feature	Sample Size	Wins	Win %	Avg PnL/Bet	Avg Edge
Scheduled scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	86	67	77.9%	6.5c	6.2c
Scheduled scan + Large edge (8-15%)	92	69	75.0%	5.6c	9.9c
Moneyline market + Small edge (2-4%)	535	374	69.9%	7.4c	-0.6c
Confidence not scored yet + Moneyline market	275	183	66.5%	9.7c	3.4c
Moneyline market + Large edge (8-15%)	70	46	65.7%	9.3c	10.9c
Totals (over/under) market + Small edge (2-4%)	4121	2633	63.9%	0.1c	0.1c
Totals (over/under) market + Large edge (8-15%)	941	601	63.9%	7.9c	10.6c
Totals (over/under) market + Medium edge (4-8%)	1162	742	63.9%	-1.9c	5.8c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Totals (over/under) market	4593	2907	63.3%	1.9c	4.2c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Moneyline market	465	293	63.0%	6.8c	3.3c
8 AM scan + Large edge (8-15%)	283	177	62.5%	8.3c	10.9c
Confidence not scored yet + Totals (over/under) market	2207	1364	61.8%	2.1c	4.2c
8 AM scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	309	179	57.9%	2.0c	5.9c
10 AM scan + Large edge (8-15%)	323	187	57.9%	4.3c	11.0c
Pre-game scan + Large edge (8-15%)	212	121	57.1%	-1.8c	10.3c
Closing scan (1 min before game) + Large edge (8-15%)	388	221	57.0%	-2.4c	10.7c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Steam move detected (sharp money)	3016	1710	56.7%	-1.5c	3.5c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Large edge (8-15%)	1627	921	56.6%	2.4c	10.9c
8 AM scan + Extra-large edge (15%+)	263	148	56.3%	17.8c	19.9c
Closing scan (1 min before game) + Medium edge (4-8%)	493	277	56.2%	-6.6c	5.9c
scan: 6am + Medium edge (4-8%)	212	119	56.1%	5.7c	5.9c
scan: injury-alert + Extra-large edge (15%+)	453	252	55.6%	13.7c	20.8c
scan: 6am + Large edge (8-15%)	217	120	55.3%	8.7c	11.4c
8 AM scan + Small edge (2-4%)	1896	1042	55.0%	-1.4c	-2.5c
scan: 12pm + Extra-large edge (15%+)	133	73	54.9%	8.2c	19.4c
10 AM scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	369	201	54.5%	-2.3c	5.9c
Closing scan (1 min before game) + Extra-large edge (15%+)	160	87	54.4%	5.4c	18.8c
Scheduled scan + Small edge (2-4%)	232	126	54.3%	-3.1c	-0.9c
Confidence not scored yet + Steam move detected (sharp money)	1803	975	54.1%	2.1c	4.1c
scan: 6am + Small edge (2-4%)	1486	801	53.9%	-2.7c	-3.3c
scan: injury-alert + Small edge (2-4%)	1997	1075	53.8%	-0.8c	-1.9c
10 AM scan + Extra-large edge (15%+)	314	169	53.8%	15.6c	21.5c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Medium edge (4-8%)	1714	922	53.8%	-2.0c	5.9c
scan: manual + Small edge (2-4%)	1323	708	53.5%	-3.8c	-3.2c
scan: injury-alert + Large edge (8-15%)	513	273	53.2%	3.4c	11.2c
2 PM scan + Large edge (8-15%)	454	241	53.1%	-3.3c	10.7c
10 AM scan + Small edge (2-4%)	1867	990	53.0%	-2.4c	-2.2c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Small edge (2-4%)	8306	4386	52.8%	-3.4c	-2.2c
Closing scan (1 min before game) + Small edge (2-4%)	2223	1170	52.6%	-1.8c	-0.4c
2 PM scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	462	243	52.6%	-4.5c	5.9c
scan: 12pm + Small edge (2-4%)	424	223	52.6%	-5.3c	-0.6c
scan: 12pm + Large edge (8-15%)	200	105	52.5%	-1.5c	11.2c
2 PM scan + Small edge (2-4%)	1727	905	52.4%	-3.1c	-1.4c
scan: injury-alert + Medium edge (4-8%)	441	231	52.4%	0.0c	5.9c
Confidence not scored yet + Small edge (2-4%)	5040	2627	52.1%	-3.0c	-2.2c
scan: sigma-test + Medium edge (4-8%)	48	25	52.1%	-5.6c	5.8c
scan: recovery + Small edge (2-4%)	104	54	51.9%	-3.8c	-0.5c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + No steam move	9967	5157	51.7%	-1.2c	2.6c
scan: recovery + Medium edge (4-8%)	33	17	51.5%	4.7c	6.2c
Totals (over/under) market + Extra-large edge (15%+)	576	295	51.2%	13.7c	19.6c
Pre-game scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	280	143	51.1%	-7.9c	5.9c
Moneyline market + Medium edge (4-8%)	47	24	51.1%	5.7c	6.4c
mkt: teamTotal + Small edge (2-4%)	5123	2578	50.3%	-9.3c	-5.9c
scan: sigma-test + Small edge (2-4%)	359	180	50.1%	-3.9c	-2.0c
scan: recovery + Large edge (8-15%)	34	17	50.0%	-4.1c	10.4c
Confidence not scored yet + No steam move	5850	2902	49.6%	-3.3c	2.2c
mkt: teamTotal + Medium edge (4-8%)	777	384	49.4%	-5.3c	6.1c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + mkt: teamTotal	4519	2229	49.3%	-7.9c	-0.1c
Confidence not scored yet + mkt: teamTotal	2976	1464	49.2%	-7.6c	-0.2c
Confidence not scored yet + Medium edge (4-8%)	943	461	48.9%	-4.0c	5.9c
scan: 12pm + Medium edge (4-8%)	156	76	48.7%	-3.1c	5.8c
scan: sp-test + Small edge (2-4%)	329	160	48.6%	-6.9c	-2.4c
scan: ml-fix + Small edge (2-4%)	303	146	48.2%	-5.6c	-2.3c
Pre-game scan + Small edge (2-4%)	1225	589	48.1%	-7.9c	-1.7c
Confidence not scored yet + Extra-large edge (15%+)	802	383	47.8%	6.9c	20.4c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Extra-large edge (15%+)	1336	638	47.8%	8.1c	20.1c
Scheduled scan + Extra-large edge (15%+)	21	10	47.6%	6.4c	18.2c
scan: 6am + Extra-large edge (15%+)	244	116	47.5%	10.3c	19.8c
scan: manual + Medium edge (4-8%)	173	82	47.4%	-7.5c	5.9c
Spread market + Extra-large edge (15%+)	689	326	47.3%	9.6c	21.3c
Spread market + Large edge (8-15%)	674	317	47.0%	1.9c	11.2c
mkt: teamTotal + Extra-large edge (15%+)	785	368	46.9%	1.2c	19.7c
Confidence not scored yet + Large edge (8-15%)	868	406	46.8%	-2.2c	11.0c
scan: recovery + Extra-large edge (15%+)	26	12	46.2%	0.2c	19.8c
scan: sp-test2 + Small edge (2-4%)	306	140	45.8%	-7.7c	-2.2c
mkt: teamTotal + Large edge (8-15%)	810	363	44.8%	-9.1c	11.2c

Alpha Decay — Is the Edge Fading? (Last 16 Weeks)

Weekly ROI per strategy. Declining ROI = strategy crowding out. Each row is one ISO week.

Strategy	Week	N	Win %	ROI	Avg Edge
implied::teamTotal	2026-W19	180	52.8%	-12.3%	6.6c
	2026-W18	295	60.0%	-2.6%	4.9c
	2026-W17	646	50.6%	-9.9%	6.9c
	2026-W16	835	43.7%	-27.1%	1.7c
	2026-W15	774	52.2%	-2.6%	-0.2c
	2026-W14	3407	50.8%	-12.0%	-2.0c
	2026-W13	1358	43.7%	-21.2%	-2.0c

shin::ml	2026-W19	18	94.4%	204.2%	2.7c
	2026-W18	14	85.7%	20.3%	4.7c
	2026-W17	66	51.5%	14.7%	4.0c
	2026-W16	82	59.8%	-0.1%	3.5c
	2026-W15	64	71.9%	74.2%	3.9c
	2026-W14	392	61.5%	4.0%	4.0c
	2026-W13	104	74.0%	21.2%	0.0c
	2026-W12	16	37.5%	-30.3%	2.7c

shin::spread	2026-W19	221	51.1%	23.1%	13.5c
	2026-W18	292	35.6%	-13.5%	4.2c
	2026-W17	413	44.8%	-4.9%	8.2c
	2026-W16	557	59.2%	34.8%	5.4c
	2026-W15	529	44.8%	-0.2%	6.2c
	2026-W14	2620	39.5%	6.3%	3.7c
	2026-W13	969	30.9%	-18.2%	3.4c
	2026-W12	227	44.9%	-18.1%	4.0c

shin::total	2026-W19	122	84.4%	72.7%	5.1c
	2026-W18	152	59.9%	10.6%	5.9c
	2026-W17	395	53.4%	-7.0%	7.5c
	2026-W16	608	56.7%	-4.9%	3.7c
	2026-W15	547	68.7%	30.6%	4.4c
	2026-W14	2909	62.8%	4.2%	3.8c
	2026-W13	1878	64.9%	-3.3%	3.7c
	2026-W12	189	52.9%	-1.0%	5.5c

Odds-as-Features — Which Numbers Predict Wins?

Point-biserial correlation between each edge feature and win/loss. Higher |r| = more predictive. Positive r = higher value → more wins.

#	Feature	N	Mean (Win)	Mean (Loss)	Correlation	\|r\|
1	Execution Price	20636	0.5925	0.4437	0.3111	0.3111
2	Exec Price (No)	20636	0.5620	0.5990	-0.0767	0.0767
3	Model Prob (Yes)	20636	0.4855	0.4446	0.0765	0.0765
4	Model Prob (No)	20636	0.5145	0.5554	-0.0765	0.0765
5	Net Edge (Yes)	20636	-0.0633	-0.0844	0.0629	0.0629
6	Spread (cents)	20521	10.0579	11.8112	-0.0605	0.0605
7	Pinnacle Move	7189	1.5988	2.0870	-0.0499	0.0499
8	Steam Detected	20636	0.2499	0.2157	0.0404	0.0404
9	Exec Price (Yes)	20636	0.5382	0.5186	0.0380	0.0380
10	Net Edge (No)	20636	-0.0585	-0.0543	-0.0130	0.0130
11	Net Edge	20636	0.0280	0.0268	0.0064	0.0064
12	Steam Magnitude	20636	0.6954	0.6833	0.0031	0.0031
13	Trade Volume	12983	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
14	Taker % (Yes)	12983	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
15	Soft Book Consensus	12983	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
16	Is Longshot	20636	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000

Fill Quality Monitoring — Are We Getting Profiled?

Tracks execution quality over time. Rising slippage or widening spreads may indicate account profiling by market makers.

Period	Sport	Market	N	Avg Spread	Avg Slippage	Fill Rate	Avg Edge	Taker %
2026-W19	nba	total	122	1.5	19.88%	100%	5.13%	0.0%
2026-W19	nba	teamTotal	190	8.5	38.99%	100%	6.16%	0.0%
2026-W19	nba	spread	223	1.5	25.42%	100%	13.38%	0.0%
2026-W19	nba	ml	22	1.2	20.89%	100%	2.57%	0.0%
2026-W18	nba	total	152	2.0	20.82%	100%	5.88%	0.0%
2026-W18	nba	teamTotal	313	10.5	31.74%	100%	4.34%	0.0%
2026-W18	nba	spread	292	2.3	24.31%	100%	4.22%	0.0%
2026-W18	nba	ml	14	1.0	25.64%	100%	4.74%	0.0%
2026-W17	nba	total	398	2.3	14.83%	100%	7.44%	0.0%
2026-W17	nba	teamTotal	705	11.3	25.28%	100%	6.19%	0.0%
2026-W17	nba	spread	416	2.4	24.12%	100%	8.20%	0.0%
2026-W17	nba	ml	66	1.1	19.13%	100%	3.99%	0.0%
2026-W16	nba	total	609	3.3	14.44%	100%	3.72%	0.0%
2026-W16	nba	teamTotal	981	22.4	28.28%	100%	1.14%	0.0%
2026-W16	nba	spread	564	2.8	23.72%	100%	5.31%	0.0%
2026-W16	nba	ml	82	1.8	20.69%	100%	3.48%	0.0%
2026-W15	nba	total	547	4.7	24.79%	100%	4.43%	0.0%
2026-W15	nba	teamTotal	1106	31.8	30.86%	100%	-2.97%	0.0%
2026-W15	nba	spread	541	5.4	24.88%	100%	5.83%	0.0%
2026-W15	nba	ml	64	1.0	19.26%	100%	3.94%	0.0%
2026-W14	nba	total	2916	5.8	21.70%	100%	3.78%	0.0%
2026-W14	nba	teamTotal	4486	29.7	29.97%	100%	-4.20%	0.0%
2026-W14	nba	spread	2666	5.0	18.03%	100%	3.56%	0.0%
2026-W14	nba	ml	392	1.1	25.91%	100%	3.97%	0.0%
2026-W13	nba	total	1878	3.0	19.00%	100%	3.74%	0.0%
2026-W13	nba	teamTotal	1838	33.1	27.55%	100%	-4.41%	0.0%
2026-W13	nba	spread	978	5.6	19.19%	100%	3.31%	0.0%
2026-W13	nba	ml	104	1.1	22.06%	100%	0.03%	0.0%
2026-W12	nba	total	193	2.6	24.84%	39%	5.43%	0.0%
2026-W12	nba	spread	240	4.4	33.65%	53%	4.09%	0.0%
2026-W12	nba	ml	16	1.0	10.97%	50%	2.71%	0.0%

Granger Causality — Does X Predict Y?

Tests if lagged values of one series help predict another. Significant (p<0.05) means X Granger-causes Y — useful for timing entries.

X (Cause)	Y (Effect)	Lag	F-Stat	p-value	Direction	Significant?	N
edge_net_edge	outcome	1	51.156	<0.001	negative	YES	39127
edge_spread_cents	outcome	1	39.222	<0.001	positive	YES	39127
edge_steam_magnitude	outcome	1	2.476	0.1156	positive	no	39127

Data Viewer: edge-scanner-nba-totals

sports_edges (0 total rows, showing 0 of 0)