edge-scanner-nba-teamtotal

id ▼	scan type ▼	detected at ▼	game id ▼	team code ▼	Kalshi Line ▼	rung ▼	yes exec price ▼	no exec price ▼	spread cents ▼	PIN Anchor ▼	PIN Yes Prob ▼	PIN No Prob ▼	PIN Yes Edge ▼	PIN No Edge ▼	PIN Best Side ▼	confidence ▼	executable ▼	actual outcome ▼	settled at ▼	sub market ▼	is tie ▼

Edge Scanner Summary

YES Pinnacle Calibration (by Time Window)

Bucket	8AM Scan									10AM Scan									2PM Scan									Pre-Game									Closing									Early vs Close
	All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled Δ			With Edge Δ
	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Edge Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
95-100%	2	100.0%	+2.5	2	100.0%	2L	12.7%	+17.21c	+21.1%	7	71.4%	-26.1	4	75.0%	4L	7.0%	-14.23c	-16.1%	10	70.0%	-27.5	10	70.0%	10L	10.8%	-15.33c	-18.1%	3	66.7%	-30.8	3	66.7%	3L	8.5%	-20.53c	-23.8%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
90-95%	9	55.6%	-36.9	5	60.0%	5L	8.0%	-24.00c	-28.8%	17	70.6%	-21.9	10	80.0%	9L	7.5%	-4.39c	-5.3%	21	57.1%	-35.4	18	50.0%	18L	6.9%	-34.94c	-41.4%	11	63.6%	-28.9	7	71.4%	7L	3.2%	-16.07c	-18.5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
85-90%	27	74.1%	-13.4	12	66.7%	12L	4.4%	-15.70c	-19.3%	39	71.8%	-15.7	12	66.7%	11L	5.4%	-14.06c	-17.6%	43	74.4%	-13.1	23	65.2%	23L	6.0%	-15.45c	-19.3%	22	63.6%	-23.9	7	71.4%	7L	3.2%	-11.63c	-14.2%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
80-85%	45	91.1%	+8.6	16	81.3%	16L	4.8%	+3.28c	+4.3%	45	84.4%	+1.9	11	81.8%	11L	5.0%	+4.26c	+5.6%	57	80.7%	-1.8	27	81.5%	27L	6.7%	+5.39c	+7.2%	42	71.4%	-11.1	17	52.9%	17L	4.5%	-24.52c	-32.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
75-80%	58	70.7%	-6.8	11	63.6%	11L	10.4%	-3.50c	-5.3%	57	77.2%	-0.3	13	69.2%	10L	9.0%	+0.34c	+0.5%	74	71.6%	-5.9	23	65.2%	23L	8.1%	-3.75c	-5.6%	27	63.0%	-14.5	9	66.7%	9L	5.7%	-5.53c	-7.8%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
70-75%	70	78.6%	+6.1	12	50.0%	12L	8.8%	-12.98c	-21.0%	69	75.4%	+2.9	16	62.5%	11L	9.6%	+0.23c	+0.4%	65	76.9%	+4.4	19	57.9%	19L	9.0%	-5.02c	-8.2%	46	67.4%	-5.1	13	30.8%	13L	5.1%	-35.75c	-54.4%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
65-70%	69	66.7%	-0.8	15	53.3%	15L	9.9%	-3.52c	-6.4%	66	69.7%	+2.2	15	46.7%	12L	9.4%	-10.71c	-19.1%	71	69.0%	+1.5	22	54.5%	22L	9.3%	-3.45c	-6.1%	41	63.4%	-4.1	11	54.5%	11L	8.9%	-3.81c	-6.7%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
60-65%	57	73.7%	+11.2	10	50.0%	10L	8.1%	-2.96c	-5.8%	60	73.3%	+10.8	12	50.0%	10L	11.5%	+0.10c	+0.2%	49	69.4%	+6.9	17	35.3%	17L	9.2%	-17.40c	-33.8%	43	62.8%	+0.3	14	35.7%	14L	7.5%	-18.52c	-34.9%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
55-60%	65	49.2%	-8.3	16	31.3%	16L	6.6%	-18.64c	-38.2%	66	50.0%	-7.5	15	26.7%	13L	6.2%	-23.44c	-47.7%	68	58.8%	+1.3	20	40.0%	20L	6.4%	-10.30c	-21.1%	31	48.4%	-9.1	8	37.5%	8L	6.6%	-13.06c	-26.6%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
50-55%	58	70.7%	+18.2	7	57.1%	7L	12.5%	+16.43c	+42.8%	58	70.7%	+18.2	9	55.6%	7L	13.0%	+15.52c	+41.2%	61	68.9%	+16.4	13	30.8%	13L	9.9%	-11.04c	-27.1%	44	56.8%	+4.3	11	9.1%	11L	5.1%	-35.88c	-80.4%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
45-50%	68	48.5%	+1.0	13	30.8%	13L	10.0%	-6.12c	-17.2%	69	46.4%	-1.1	17	29.4%	15L	9.7%	-7.53c	-21.1%	59	50.8%	+3.3	15	33.3%	15L	6.4%	-7.36c	-18.7%	35	48.6%	+1.1	10	30.0%	10L	7.9%	-9.13c	-24.1%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40-45%	57	50.9%	+8.4	4	50.0%	4L	6.7%	+13.31c	+38.6%	62	58.1%	+15.6	7	42.9%	5L	5.4%	+4.55c	+12.5%	70	61.4%	+18.9	7	42.9%	7L	12.9%	+12.97c	+46.3%	39	48.7%	+6.2	4	25.0%	4L	5.2%	-11.34c	-32.2%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35-40%	65	43.1%	+5.6	7	42.9%	7L	2.6%	+7.44c	+22.3%	61	44.3%	+6.8	9	33.3%	9L	3.4%	-0.42c	-1.3%	59	37.3%	-0.2	9	33.3%	9L	4.1%	-0.04c	-0.1%	34	41.2%	+3.7	7	28.6%	7L	1.7%	-7.52c	-21.7%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30-35%	61	39.3%	+6.8	4	0.0%	4L	4.5%	-27.25c	-100.0%	66	39.4%	+6.9	6	16.7%	4L	4.0%	-11.97c	-43.0%	74	43.2%	+10.7	5	0.0%	5L	5.9%	-25.00c	-100.0%	38	34.2%	+1.7	5	20.0%	5L	2.4%	-9.57c	-33.4%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25-30%	62	32.3%	+4.8	8	0.0%	8L	3.1%	-22.75c	-100.0%	59	32.2%	+4.7	8	0.0%	7L	3.0%	-22.63c	-100.0%	65	32.3%	+4.8	7	0.0%	7L	3.4%	-21.86c	-100.0%	42	28.6%	+1.1	8	0.0%	8L	3.0%	-23.25c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20-25%	52	28.8%	+6.3	3	33.3%	3L	2.0%	+11.16c	+54.9%	58	34.5%	+12.0	2	50.0%	2L	1.8%	+26.73c	+130.4%	67	37.3%	+14.8	4	25.0%	4L	1.6%	+3.37c	+16.6%	39	20.5%	-2.0	1	0.0%	1L	0.4%	-20.00c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	41	36.6%	+19.1	1	0.0%	1L	4.5%	-12.00c	-100.0%	45	35.6%	+18.1	1	0.0%	1L	4.5%	-12.00c	-100.0%	45	31.1%	+13.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	27	22.2%	+4.7	1	0.0%	1L	4.5%	-12.00c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-15%	23	26.1%	+13.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	29	24.1%	+11.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	47	19.1%	+6.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	12	33.3%	+20.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5-10%	10	20.0%	+12.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	21	14.3%	+6.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	26	11.5%	+4.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	5	20.0%	+12.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
0-5%	2	0.0%	-2.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	8	12.5%	+10.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	12	16.7%	+14.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	0.0%	-2.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

NO Pinnacle Calibration (by Time Window)

Bucket	8AM Scan									10AM Scan									2PM Scan									Pre-Game									Closing									Early vs Close
	All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled Δ			With Edge Δ
	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Edge Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
95-100%	3	100.0%	+2.5	3	100.0%	3L	14.8%	+18.91c	+23.7%	8	87.5%	-10.0	8	87.5%	7L	12.5%	+2.69c	+3.2%	12	83.3%	-14.2	12	83.3%	12L	12.8%	-1.31c	-1.6%	1	100.0%	+2.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
90-95%	9	77.8%	-14.7	8	75.0%	8L	10.7%	-6.17c	-7.7%	21	85.7%	-6.8	18	83.3%	14L	11.3%	+2.30c	+2.9%	26	88.5%	-4.0	24	87.5%	24L	11.2%	+6.29c	+7.9%	5	80.0%	-12.5	5	80.0%	5L	5.4%	-6.43c	-7.5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
85-90%	23	73.9%	-13.6	11	72.7%	11L	11.0%	-3.86c	-5.1%	29	75.9%	-11.6	19	78.9%	15L	11.8%	+3.27c	+4.4%	47	80.9%	-6.6	31	80.6%	31L	8.7%	+2.29c	+3.0%	12	66.7%	-20.8	5	60.0%	5L	12.0%	-14.85c	-20.1%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
80-85%	41	63.4%	-19.1	8	75.0%	8L	9.7%	+2.74c	+3.9%	45	64.4%	-18.1	13	61.5%	10L	9.3%	-11.31c	-15.8%	45	68.9%	-13.6	18	66.7%	18L	8.6%	-7.07c	-9.8%	27	77.8%	-4.7	2	50.0%	2L	19.6%	-12.76c	-20.7%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
75-80%	52	71.2%	-6.3	14	64.3%	14L	14.7%	+2.42c	+4.0%	58	65.5%	-12.0	19	52.6%	16L	15.1%	-8.85c	-14.7%	67	62.7%	-14.8	32	56.3%	32L	11.5%	-9.41c	-14.7%	39	79.5%	+2.0	9	55.6%	9L	12.3%	-9.28c	-14.6%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
70-75%	62	67.7%	-4.8	11	54.5%	11L	10.7%	-6.06c	-10.2%	59	67.8%	-4.7	14	35.7%	13L	12.0%	-23.35c	-40.2%	65	67.7%	-4.8	24	41.7%	24L	12.1%	-17.72c	-30.5%	42	71.4%	-1.1	8	25.0%	8L	12.0%	-32.94c	-57.4%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
65-70%	61	60.7%	-6.8	14	14.3%	14L	17.3%	-34.32c	-71.4%	66	60.6%	-6.9	17	23.5%	13L	16.0%	-26.50c	-53.8%	74	56.8%	-10.7	24	45.8%	24L	14.1%	-6.91c	-13.5%	38	65.8%	-1.7	9	33.3%	9L	15.9%	-17.36c	-35.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
60-65%	65	56.9%	-5.6	17	47.1%	17L	10.4%	-4.58c	-9.1%	61	55.7%	-6.8	20	40.0%	19L	10.1%	-11.65c	-23.1%	59	62.7%	+0.2	21	33.3%	21L	10.2%	-17.43c	-35.1%	34	58.8%	-3.7	10	40.0%	10L	8.0%	-13.24c	-25.5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
55-60%	57	49.1%	-8.4	13	7.7%	13L	14.8%	-33.40c	-81.8%	62	41.9%	-15.6	16	6.3%	14L	13.8%	-35.45c	-85.4%	70	38.6%	-18.9	26	23.1%	26L	12.2%	-20.74c	-48.3%	39	51.3%	-6.2	10	10.0%	10L	13.1%	-32.42c	-77.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
50-55%	68	51.5%	-1.0	16	25.0%	16L	11.0%	-15.47c	-39.3%	69	53.6%	+1.1	18	22.2%	16L	10.5%	-18.75c	-46.9%	59	49.2%	-3.3	17	29.4%	17L	11.6%	-10.19c	-26.6%	35	51.4%	-1.1	6	33.3%	6L	6.6%	-11.03c	-25.7%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
45-50%	59	30.5%	-17.0	18	5.6%	18L	12.3%	-27.41c	-83.8%	58	29.3%	-18.2	22	13.6%	19L	10.9%	-21.09c	-61.8%	61	31.1%	-16.4	20	15.0%	20L	11.3%	-19.52c	-57.7%	44	43.2%	-4.3	12	8.3%	12L	13.0%	-23.66c	-74.7%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40-45%	64	50.0%	+7.5	7	0.0%	7L	11.5%	-29.86c	-100.0%	66	50.0%	+7.5	10	0.0%	9L	10.5%	-30.60c	-100.0%	68	41.2%	-1.3	19	21.1%	19L	10.5%	-9.85c	-32.9%	31	51.6%	+9.1	4	0.0%	4L	6.4%	-35.00c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35-40%	58	25.9%	-11.6	15	0.0%	15L	10.8%	-24.60c	-100.0%	60	26.7%	-10.8	17	5.9%	16L	10.2%	-19.49c	-77.8%	49	30.6%	-6.9	16	0.0%	16L	12.0%	-23.50c	-100.0%	43	37.2%	-0.3	9	0.0%	9L	9.2%	-26.67c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30-35%	69	33.3%	+0.8	11	18.2%	11L	6.7%	-7.32c	-29.8%	66	30.3%	-2.2	12	16.7%	12L	6.4%	-8.96c	-36.2%	71	31.0%	-1.5	13	23.1%	13L	6.0%	-3.10c	-12.4%	41	36.6%	+4.1	7	28.6%	7L	6.2%	+1.93c	+7.7%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25-30%	69	21.7%	-5.8	9	0.0%	9L	4.0%	-21.33c	-100.0%	69	24.6%	-2.9	9	0.0%	9L	4.0%	-21.33c	-100.0%	65	23.1%	-4.4	13	15.4%	13L	5.1%	-6.92c	-32.3%	46	32.6%	+5.1	7	0.0%	7L	4.2%	-21.00c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20-25%	58	29.3%	+6.8	3	0.0%	3L	0.7%	-20.33c	-100.0%	57	22.8%	+0.3	6	0.0%	6L	4.0%	-17.33c	-100.0%	74	28.4%	+5.9	8	12.5%	8L	3.2%	-6.08c	-34.0%	27	37.0%	+14.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	45	8.9%	-8.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	45	15.6%	-1.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	57	19.3%	+1.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	42	28.6%	+11.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-15%	27	25.9%	+13.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	39	28.2%	+15.7	1	0.0%	1L	2.7%	-9.00c	-100.0%	43	25.6%	+13.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	22	36.4%	+23.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5-10%	9	44.4%	+36.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	17	29.4%	+21.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	21	42.9%	+35.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	11	36.4%	+28.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
0-5%	2	0.0%	-2.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	7	28.6%	+26.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	10	30.0%	+27.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	3	33.3%	+30.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

YES Our Model Calibration (by Time Window)

Bucket	8AM Scan									10AM Scan									2PM Scan									Pre-Game									Closing									Early vs Close
	All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled Δ			With Edge Δ
	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Edge Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
95-100%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
90-95%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
85-90%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
80-85%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
75-80%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
70-75%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
65-70%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
60-65%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
55-60%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
50-55%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
45-50%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40-45%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35-40%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30-35%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25-30%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20-25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-15%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5-10%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
0-5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

NO Our Model Calibration (by Time Window)

Bucket	8AM Scan									10AM Scan									2PM Scan									Pre-Game									Closing									Early vs Close
	All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled Δ			With Edge Δ
	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Edge Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
95-100%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
90-95%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
85-90%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
80-85%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
75-80%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
70-75%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
65-70%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
60-65%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
55-60%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
50-55%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
45-50%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40-45%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35-40%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30-35%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25-30%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20-25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-15%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5-10%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
0-5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Win Rate by Edge Size (by Time Window)

Edge	8AM Scan							10AM Scan							2PM Scan							Pre-Game							Closing							Early vs Close
Edge	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	—	PnL Δ	ROI Δ	—
0-2%	64	38	59.4%	64L	9	+1.93c	+3.5%	65	45	69.2%	57L	462	+12.39c	+22.6%	87	53	60.9%	87L	237	+1.38c	+2.4%	65	28	43.1%	65L	17	-16.71c	-28.4%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2-4%	28	17	60.7%	28L	0	+5.51c	+10.3%	42	23	54.8%	39L	1005	-0.96c	-1.8%	63	37	58.7%	63L	163	-3.62c	-5.9%	30	13	43.3%	30L	54	-11.83c	-21.9%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4-6%	35	19	54.3%	35L	0	+0.58c	+1.1%	44	20	45.5%	39L	259	-10.04c	-18.5%	62	30	48.4%	62L	355	-10.17c	-17.8%	29	11	37.9%	29L	120	-16.15c	-30.5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
6-8%	40	21	52.5%	40L	0	+2.93c	+6.2%	56	26	46.4%	50L	478	-6.59c	-12.8%	71	33	46.5%	71L	114	-12.41c	-21.4%	36	11	30.6%	36L	0	-18.99c	-39.1%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8-10%	25	10	40.0%	25L	8	-13.53c	-25.9%	35	12	34.3%	25L	1586	-17.75c	-34.8%	54	28	51.9%	54L	645	-8.11c	-13.8%	13	5	38.5%	13L	0	-16.14c	-29.9%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-12%	18	10	55.6%	18L	0	+5.57c	+11.6%	23	13	56.5%	16L	621	+1.24c	+2.3%	39	16	41.0%	39L	416	-14.30c	-26.4%	7	4	57.1%	7L	0	+3.79c	+7.3%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12-15%	28	14	50.0%	28L	10	-3.40c	-6.6%	41	18	43.9%	34L	558	-8.54c	-16.7%	56	27	48.2%	56L	531	-8.19c	-14.8%	16	4	25.0%	16L	0	-22.12c	-47.9%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	47	26	55.3%	47L	42	+10.02c	+23.3%	56	27	48.2%	51L	196	+0.32c	+0.7%	69	29	42.0%	69L	198	-5.73c	-12.4%	23	4	17.4%	23L	14	-24.31c	-59.1%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20%+	39	19	48.7%	39L	121	+6.94c	+17.4%	44	21	47.7%	39L	1119	+5.18c	+12.7%	56	27	48.2%	56L	91	+4.33c	+10.3%	20	6	30.0%	20L	198	-11.67c	-28.8%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

YES vs NO Performance (by Time Window)

Side	8AM Scan					10AM Scan					2PM Scan					Pre-Game					Closing					Early vs Close
Side	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI
YES (Buy Yes)	444	225	50.7%	-8.26c	-14.3%	455	223	49.0%	-9.75c	-17.0%	489	248	50.7%	-8.65c	-14.9%	316	119	37.7%	-21.58c	-37.0%	—	—	—	—	—	3637	1827	50.2%	-8.59c	-14.9%
NO (Buy No)	457	263	57.5%	+2.16c	+4.0%	507	258	50.9%	-3.59c	-6.8%	554	253	45.7%	-9.08c	-17.0%	266	102	38.3%	-17.18c	-31.4%	—	—	—	—	—	3858	1866	48.4%	-6.94c	-12.9%

Confidence Breakdown (3-Signal Test)

Signals: Spread<5c + Trade<15min + 2+ Books Agree. High=3/3, Medium=2/3, Low=0-1/3

Confidence	8AM Scan					10AM Scan					2PM Scan					Pre-Game					Closing					Early vs Close
	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
HIGH	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
MEDIUM	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
LOW	901	901	54.2%	-2681c	-5.4%	832	832	50.7%	-4943c	-10.8%	1043	1043	48.0%	-9265c	-16.0%	582	582	38.0%	-11391c	-34.5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Dynamic Model Weights — Which De-Vig Methods Win?

Rolling performance per de-vig method. Weight = blend of win rate + ROI (1.0 = average, >1.5 = strong, <0.5 = weak).

Method	Sport	Market	Window	N	Win %	ROI	Avg Edge	Weight
shin	nba	ml	14d	74	68.9%	35.7%	5.1c	1.37
shin	nba	ml	30d	228	64.9%	28.3%	3.5c	1.29
shin	nba	ml	60d	740	64.3%	14.3%	3.3c	1.21
shin	nba	ml	90d	740	64.3%	14.3%	3.3c	1.21
shin	nba	total	30d	1696	62.4%	10.2%	5.0c	1.18
shin	nba	total	60d	6800	62.8%	3.3%	4.2c	1.14
shin	nba	total	90d	6800	62.8%	3.3%	4.2c	1.14
shin	nba	total	14d	513	58.9%	10.3%	7.2c	1.14
shin	nba	spread	30d	1867	49.3%	12.3%	7.0c	1.05
implied	nba	teamTotal	14d	855	53.8%	-7.9%	6.2c	1.00
shin	nba	spread	14d	760	44.6%	3.2%	8.5c	0.96
implied	nba	teamTotal	30d	2512	51.0%	-12.1%	3.3c	0.95
shin	nba	spread	60d	5601	41.1%	3.4%	4.8c	0.93
shin	nba	spread	90d	5601	41.1%	3.4%	4.8c	0.93
implied	nba	teamTotal	60d	7495	49.3%	-13.9%	-0.1c	0.92
implied	nba	teamTotal	90d	7495	49.3%	-13.9%	-0.1c	0.92

Meta-Labels — Single Features

Win rate by individual signal. Shows which features predict wins on their own.

Feature	Sample Size	Wins	Win %	Avg PnL/Bet	Avg Edge
Moneyline market	740	476	64.3%	7.8c	3.3c
Scheduled scan	431	272	63.1%	1.1c	3.7c
Totals (over/under) market	6800	4271	62.8%	2.0c	4.2c
8 AM scan	2751	1546	56.2%	1.8c	1.9c
Steam move detected (sharp money)	4819	2685	55.7%	-0.1c	3.7c
10 AM scan	2873	1547	53.8%	0.4c	2.9c
scan: injury-alert	3404	1831	53.8%	1.9c	4.1c
Closing scan (1 min before game)	3264	1755	53.8%	-2.2c	2.8c
scan: 6am	2159	1156	53.5%	0.8c	1.7c
Large edge (8-15%)	2495	1327	53.2%	0.8c	10.9c
Low confidence (0-1 signals)	12983	6867	52.9%	-1.3c	2.8c
Small edge (2-4%)	13346	7013	52.5%	-3.2c	-2.2c
scan: 12pm	913	477	52.2%	-2.1c	6.0c
Medium edge (4-8%)	2657	1383	52.1%	-2.7c	5.9c
2 PM scan	2936	1509	51.4%	-3.1c	3.7c
No steam move	15817	8059	51.0%	-2.0c	2.4c
scan: manual	1836	932	50.8%	-3.6c	1.1c
scan: recovery	197	100	50.8%	-1.9c	5.2c
Confidence not scored yet	7653	3877	50.7%	-2.0c	2.6c
mkt: teamTotal	7495	3693	49.3%	-7.7c	-0.1c
scan: sigma-test	442	214	48.4%	-5.3c	0.3c
Extra-large edge (15%+)	2138	1021	47.8%	7.7c	20.2c
Pre-game scan	1843	878	47.6%	-7.8c	2.3c
scan: sp-test	437	197	45.1%	-8.4c	0.7c

Meta-Labels — Feature Combos

Win rate by 2-feature combinations. The best combos tell you when to bet bigger.

Feature	Sample Size	Wins	Win %	Avg PnL/Bet	Avg Edge
Scheduled scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	86	67	77.9%	6.5c	6.2c
Scheduled scan + Large edge (8-15%)	92	69	75.0%	5.6c	9.9c
Moneyline market + Small edge (2-4%)	535	374	69.9%	7.4c	-0.6c
Confidence not scored yet + Moneyline market	275	183	66.5%	9.7c	3.4c
Moneyline market + Large edge (8-15%)	70	46	65.7%	9.3c	10.9c
Totals (over/under) market + Small edge (2-4%)	4121	2633	63.9%	0.1c	0.1c
Totals (over/under) market + Large edge (8-15%)	941	601	63.9%	7.9c	10.6c
Totals (over/under) market + Medium edge (4-8%)	1162	742	63.9%	-1.9c	5.8c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Totals (over/under) market	4593	2907	63.3%	1.9c	4.2c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Moneyline market	465	293	63.0%	6.8c	3.3c
8 AM scan + Large edge (8-15%)	283	177	62.5%	8.3c	10.9c
Confidence not scored yet + Totals (over/under) market	2207	1364	61.8%	2.1c	4.2c
8 AM scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	309	179	57.9%	2.0c	5.9c
10 AM scan + Large edge (8-15%)	323	187	57.9%	4.3c	11.0c
Pre-game scan + Large edge (8-15%)	212	121	57.1%	-1.8c	10.3c
Closing scan (1 min before game) + Large edge (8-15%)	388	221	57.0%	-2.4c	10.7c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Steam move detected (sharp money)	3016	1710	56.7%	-1.5c	3.5c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Large edge (8-15%)	1627	921	56.6%	2.4c	10.9c
8 AM scan + Extra-large edge (15%+)	263	148	56.3%	17.8c	19.9c
Closing scan (1 min before game) + Medium edge (4-8%)	493	277	56.2%	-6.6c	5.9c
scan: 6am + Medium edge (4-8%)	212	119	56.1%	5.7c	5.9c
scan: injury-alert + Extra-large edge (15%+)	453	252	55.6%	13.7c	20.8c
scan: 6am + Large edge (8-15%)	217	120	55.3%	8.7c	11.4c
8 AM scan + Small edge (2-4%)	1896	1042	55.0%	-1.4c	-2.5c
scan: 12pm + Extra-large edge (15%+)	133	73	54.9%	8.2c	19.4c
10 AM scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	369	201	54.5%	-2.3c	5.9c
Closing scan (1 min before game) + Extra-large edge (15%+)	160	87	54.4%	5.4c	18.8c
Scheduled scan + Small edge (2-4%)	232	126	54.3%	-3.1c	-0.9c
Confidence not scored yet + Steam move detected (sharp money)	1803	975	54.1%	2.1c	4.1c
scan: 6am + Small edge (2-4%)	1486	801	53.9%	-2.7c	-3.3c
scan: injury-alert + Small edge (2-4%)	1997	1075	53.8%	-0.8c	-1.9c
10 AM scan + Extra-large edge (15%+)	314	169	53.8%	15.6c	21.5c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Medium edge (4-8%)	1714	922	53.8%	-2.0c	5.9c
scan: manual + Small edge (2-4%)	1323	708	53.5%	-3.8c	-3.2c
scan: injury-alert + Large edge (8-15%)	513	273	53.2%	3.4c	11.2c
2 PM scan + Large edge (8-15%)	454	241	53.1%	-3.3c	10.7c
10 AM scan + Small edge (2-4%)	1867	990	53.0%	-2.4c	-2.2c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Small edge (2-4%)	8306	4386	52.8%	-3.4c	-2.2c
Closing scan (1 min before game) + Small edge (2-4%)	2223	1170	52.6%	-1.8c	-0.4c
2 PM scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	462	243	52.6%	-4.5c	5.9c
scan: 12pm + Small edge (2-4%)	424	223	52.6%	-5.3c	-0.6c
scan: 12pm + Large edge (8-15%)	200	105	52.5%	-1.5c	11.2c
2 PM scan + Small edge (2-4%)	1727	905	52.4%	-3.1c	-1.4c
scan: injury-alert + Medium edge (4-8%)	441	231	52.4%	0.0c	5.9c
Confidence not scored yet + Small edge (2-4%)	5040	2627	52.1%	-3.0c	-2.2c
scan: sigma-test + Medium edge (4-8%)	48	25	52.1%	-5.6c	5.8c
scan: recovery + Small edge (2-4%)	104	54	51.9%	-3.8c	-0.5c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + No steam move	9967	5157	51.7%	-1.2c	2.6c
scan: recovery + Medium edge (4-8%)	33	17	51.5%	4.7c	6.2c
Totals (over/under) market + Extra-large edge (15%+)	576	295	51.2%	13.7c	19.6c
Pre-game scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	280	143	51.1%	-7.9c	5.9c
Moneyline market + Medium edge (4-8%)	47	24	51.1%	5.7c	6.4c
mkt: teamTotal + Small edge (2-4%)	5123	2578	50.3%	-9.3c	-5.9c
scan: sigma-test + Small edge (2-4%)	359	180	50.1%	-3.9c	-2.0c
scan: recovery + Large edge (8-15%)	34	17	50.0%	-4.1c	10.4c
Confidence not scored yet + No steam move	5850	2902	49.6%	-3.3c	2.2c
mkt: teamTotal + Medium edge (4-8%)	777	384	49.4%	-5.3c	6.1c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + mkt: teamTotal	4519	2229	49.3%	-7.9c	-0.1c
Confidence not scored yet + mkt: teamTotal	2976	1464	49.2%	-7.6c	-0.2c
Confidence not scored yet + Medium edge (4-8%)	943	461	48.9%	-4.0c	5.9c
scan: 12pm + Medium edge (4-8%)	156	76	48.7%	-3.1c	5.8c
scan: sp-test + Small edge (2-4%)	329	160	48.6%	-6.9c	-2.4c
scan: ml-fix + Small edge (2-4%)	303	146	48.2%	-5.6c	-2.3c
Pre-game scan + Small edge (2-4%)	1225	589	48.1%	-7.9c	-1.7c
Confidence not scored yet + Extra-large edge (15%+)	802	383	47.8%	6.9c	20.4c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Extra-large edge (15%+)	1336	638	47.8%	8.1c	20.1c
Scheduled scan + Extra-large edge (15%+)	21	10	47.6%	6.4c	18.2c
scan: 6am + Extra-large edge (15%+)	244	116	47.5%	10.3c	19.8c
scan: manual + Medium edge (4-8%)	173	82	47.4%	-7.5c	5.9c
Spread market + Extra-large edge (15%+)	689	326	47.3%	9.6c	21.3c
Spread market + Large edge (8-15%)	674	317	47.0%	1.9c	11.2c
mkt: teamTotal + Extra-large edge (15%+)	785	368	46.9%	1.2c	19.7c
Confidence not scored yet + Large edge (8-15%)	868	406	46.8%	-2.2c	11.0c
scan: recovery + Extra-large edge (15%+)	26	12	46.2%	0.2c	19.8c
scan: sp-test2 + Small edge (2-4%)	306	140	45.8%	-7.7c	-2.2c
mkt: teamTotal + Large edge (8-15%)	810	363	44.8%	-9.1c	11.2c

Alpha Decay — Is the Edge Fading? (Last 16 Weeks)

Weekly ROI per strategy. Declining ROI = strategy crowding out. Each row is one ISO week.

Strategy	Week	N	Win %	ROI	Avg Edge
implied::teamTotal	2026-W19	180	52.8%	-12.3%	6.6c
	2026-W18	295	60.0%	-2.6%	4.9c
	2026-W17	646	50.6%	-9.9%	6.9c
	2026-W16	835	43.7%	-27.1%	1.7c
	2026-W15	774	52.2%	-2.6%	-0.2c
	2026-W14	3407	50.8%	-12.0%	-2.0c
	2026-W13	1358	43.7%	-21.2%	-2.0c

shin::ml	2026-W19	18	94.4%	204.2%	2.7c
	2026-W18	14	85.7%	20.3%	4.7c
	2026-W17	66	51.5%	14.7%	4.0c
	2026-W16	82	59.8%	-0.1%	3.5c
	2026-W15	64	71.9%	74.2%	3.9c
	2026-W14	392	61.5%	4.0%	4.0c
	2026-W13	104	74.0%	21.2%	0.0c
	2026-W12	16	37.5%	-30.3%	2.7c

shin::spread	2026-W19	221	51.1%	23.1%	13.5c
	2026-W18	292	35.6%	-13.5%	4.2c
	2026-W17	413	44.8%	-4.9%	8.2c
	2026-W16	557	59.2%	34.8%	5.4c
	2026-W15	529	44.8%	-0.2%	6.2c
	2026-W14	2620	39.5%	6.3%	3.7c
	2026-W13	969	30.9%	-18.2%	3.4c
	2026-W12	227	44.9%	-18.1%	4.0c

shin::total	2026-W19	122	84.4%	72.7%	5.1c
	2026-W18	152	59.9%	10.6%	5.9c
	2026-W17	395	53.4%	-7.0%	7.5c
	2026-W16	608	56.7%	-4.9%	3.7c
	2026-W15	547	68.7%	30.6%	4.4c
	2026-W14	2909	62.8%	4.2%	3.8c
	2026-W13	1878	64.9%	-3.3%	3.7c
	2026-W12	189	52.9%	-1.0%	5.5c

Odds-as-Features — Which Numbers Predict Wins?

Point-biserial correlation between each edge feature and win/loss. Higher |r| = more predictive. Positive r = higher value → more wins.

#	Feature	N	Mean (Win)	Mean (Loss)	Correlation	\|r\|
1	Execution Price	20636	0.5925	0.4437	0.3111	0.3111
2	Exec Price (No)	20636	0.5620	0.5990	-0.0767	0.0767
3	Model Prob (Yes)	20636	0.4855	0.4446	0.0765	0.0765
4	Model Prob (No)	20636	0.5145	0.5554	-0.0765	0.0765
5	Net Edge (Yes)	20636	-0.0633	-0.0844	0.0629	0.0629
6	Spread (cents)	20521	10.0579	11.8112	-0.0605	0.0605
7	Pinnacle Move	7189	1.5988	2.0870	-0.0499	0.0499
8	Steam Detected	20636	0.2499	0.2157	0.0404	0.0404
9	Exec Price (Yes)	20636	0.5382	0.5186	0.0380	0.0380
10	Net Edge (No)	20636	-0.0585	-0.0543	-0.0130	0.0130
11	Net Edge	20636	0.0280	0.0268	0.0064	0.0064
12	Steam Magnitude	20636	0.6954	0.6833	0.0031	0.0031
13	Trade Volume	12983	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
14	Taker % (Yes)	12983	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
15	Soft Book Consensus	12983	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
16	Is Longshot	20636	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000

Fill Quality Monitoring — Are We Getting Profiled?

Tracks execution quality over time. Rising slippage or widening spreads may indicate account profiling by market makers.

Period	Sport	Market	N	Avg Spread	Avg Slippage	Fill Rate	Avg Edge	Taker %
2026-W19	nba	total	122	1.5	19.88%	100%	5.13%	0.0%
2026-W19	nba	teamTotal	190	8.5	38.99%	100%	6.16%	0.0%
2026-W19	nba	spread	223	1.5	25.42%	100%	13.38%	0.0%
2026-W19	nba	ml	22	1.2	20.89%	100%	2.57%	0.0%
2026-W18	nba	total	152	2.0	20.82%	100%	5.88%	0.0%
2026-W18	nba	teamTotal	313	10.5	31.74%	100%	4.34%	0.0%
2026-W18	nba	spread	292	2.3	24.31%	100%	4.22%	0.0%
2026-W18	nba	ml	14	1.0	25.64%	100%	4.74%	0.0%
2026-W17	nba	total	398	2.3	14.83%	100%	7.44%	0.0%
2026-W17	nba	teamTotal	705	11.3	25.28%	100%	6.19%	0.0%
2026-W17	nba	spread	416	2.4	24.12%	100%	8.20%	0.0%
2026-W17	nba	ml	66	1.1	19.13%	100%	3.99%	0.0%
2026-W16	nba	total	609	3.3	14.44%	100%	3.72%	0.0%
2026-W16	nba	teamTotal	981	22.4	28.28%	100%	1.14%	0.0%
2026-W16	nba	spread	564	2.8	23.72%	100%	5.31%	0.0%
2026-W16	nba	ml	82	1.8	20.69%	100%	3.48%	0.0%
2026-W15	nba	total	547	4.7	24.79%	100%	4.43%	0.0%
2026-W15	nba	teamTotal	1106	31.8	30.86%	100%	-2.97%	0.0%
2026-W15	nba	spread	541	5.4	24.88%	100%	5.83%	0.0%
2026-W15	nba	ml	64	1.0	19.26%	100%	3.94%	0.0%
2026-W14	nba	total	2916	5.8	21.70%	100%	3.78%	0.0%
2026-W14	nba	teamTotal	4486	29.7	29.97%	100%	-4.20%	0.0%
2026-W14	nba	spread	2666	5.0	18.03%	100%	3.56%	0.0%
2026-W14	nba	ml	392	1.1	25.91%	100%	3.97%	0.0%
2026-W13	nba	total	1878	3.0	19.00%	100%	3.74%	0.0%
2026-W13	nba	teamTotal	1838	33.1	27.55%	100%	-4.41%	0.0%
2026-W13	nba	spread	978	5.6	19.19%	100%	3.31%	0.0%
2026-W13	nba	ml	104	1.1	22.06%	100%	0.03%	0.0%
2026-W12	nba	total	193	2.6	24.84%	39%	5.43%	0.0%
2026-W12	nba	spread	240	4.4	33.65%	53%	4.09%	0.0%
2026-W12	nba	ml	16	1.0	10.97%	50%	2.71%	0.0%

Granger Causality — Does X Predict Y?

Tests if lagged values of one series help predict another. Significant (p<0.05) means X Granger-causes Y — useful for timing entries.

X (Cause)	Y (Effect)	Lag	F-Stat	p-value	Direction	Significant?	N
edge_net_edge	outcome	1	51.156	<0.001	negative	YES	39127
edge_spread_cents	outcome	1	39.222	<0.001	positive	YES	39127
edge_steam_magnitude	outcome	1	2.476	0.1156	positive	no	39127

Data Viewer: edge-scanner-nba-teamtotal

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