edge-scanner-nba-spreads

id ▼	scan type ▼	detected at ▼	game id ▼	team code ▼	Kalshi Line ▼	rung ▼	yes exec price ▼	no exec price ▼	spread cents ▼	PIN Anchor ▼	PIN Yes Prob ▼	PIN No Prob ▼	PIN Yes Edge ▼	PIN No Edge ▼	PIN Best Side ▼	confidence ▼	executable ▼	settled at ▼	sub market ▼	is tie ▼

Edge Scanner Summary

YES Pinnacle Calibration (by Time Window)

Bucket	8AM Scan									10AM Scan									2PM Scan									Pre-Game									Closing									Early vs Close
	All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled Δ			With Edge Δ
	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Edge Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
95-100%	43	97.7%	+0.2	43	97.7%	43L	26.5%	+23.47c	+32.5%	36	97.2%	-0.3	35	97.1%	23L	25.3%	+21.79c	+29.6%	35	97.1%	-0.4	35	97.1%	35L	25.8%	+22.16c	+30.3%	26	96.2%	-1.3	26	96.2%	26L	24.0%	+19.82c	+26.6%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
90-95%	15	93.3%	+0.8	15	93.3%	15L	21.7%	+20.15c	+28.2%	15	93.3%	+0.8	14	92.9%	13L	21.4%	+19.33c	+26.9%	16	93.8%	+1.3	16	93.8%	16L	20.4%	+19.52c	+26.9%	12	91.7%	-0.8	12	91.7%	12L	24.1%	+21.08c	+30.7%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
85-90%	17	88.2%	+0.7	12	83.3%	12L	22.9%	+15.90c	+24.2%	14	85.7%	-1.8	11	81.8%	6L	21.4%	+13.11c	+19.6%	14	85.7%	-1.8	11	81.8%	11L	22.5%	+14.13c	+21.4%	8	87.5%	+0.0	7	85.7%	7L	21.7%	+17.06c	+25.6%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
80-85%	13	84.6%	+2.1	8	75.0%	8L	29.2%	+19.40c	+36.6%	13	84.6%	+2.1	7	71.4%	6L	27.0%	+14.21c	+25.9%	7	85.7%	+3.2	6	83.3%	6L	25.1%	+23.96c	+42.3%	6	83.3%	+0.8	5	80.0%	5L	22.6%	+17.58c	+29.3%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
75-80%	17	82.4%	+4.9	8	75.0%	8L	20.6%	+16.23c	+28.8%	19	84.2%	+6.7	9	77.8%	8L	18.4%	+16.90c	+28.9%	14	85.7%	+8.2	7	71.4%	7L	16.9%	+9.25c	+15.4%	8	75.0%	-2.5	6	66.7%	6L	23.2%	+10.32c	+19.1%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
70-75%	16	81.3%	+8.8	4	50.0%	4L	16.1%	-7.17c	-12.8%	17	76.5%	+4.0	4	25.0%	4L	26.6%	-19.79c	-44.7%	15	80.0%	+7.5	6	50.0%	6L	18.9%	-5.17c	-9.6%	10	80.0%	+7.5	5	60.0%	5L	20.9%	+5.78c	+11.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
65-70%	14	92.9%	+25.4	8	87.5%	8L	21.9%	+38.25c	+83.1%	17	94.1%	+26.6	7	85.7%	2L	21.2%	+36.00c	+77.3%	13	84.6%	+17.1	6	66.7%	6L	20.2%	+16.75c	+35.4%	9	77.8%	+10.3	6	66.7%	6L	15.6%	+12.59c	+24.2%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
60-65%	21	66.7%	+4.2	9	44.4%	9L	14.6%	-4.61c	-9.7%	23	65.2%	+2.7	8	25.0%	7L	22.3%	-15.39c	-39.1%	18	55.6%	-6.9	10	50.0%	10L	16.6%	+2.95c	+6.5%	11	63.6%	+1.1	6	66.7%	6L	14.1%	+15.86c	+32.8%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
55-60%	15	60.0%	+2.5	4	25.0%	4L	29.9%	-3.89c	-14.0%	20	70.0%	+12.5	5	40.0%	4L	27.5%	+10.62c	+38.2%	17	58.8%	+1.3	7	57.1%	7L	9.4%	+9.98c	+22.1%	7	42.9%	-14.6	4	50.0%	4L	20.3%	+11.13c	+30.3%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
50-55%	26	80.8%	+28.3	12	75.0%	12L	12.2%	+33.60c	+88.0%	31	67.7%	+15.2	14	64.3%	13L	11.3%	+22.81c	+59.0%	27	74.1%	+21.6	11	54.5%	11L	12.7%	+14.76c	+39.5%	12	91.7%	+39.2	6	83.3%	6L	8.8%	+39.29c	+97.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
45-50%	21	66.7%	+19.2	8	62.5%	8L	12.3%	+26.14c	+78.0%	23	65.2%	+17.7	9	55.6%	8L	18.6%	+26.08c	+96.6%	22	63.6%	+16.1	13	53.8%	13L	7.3%	+13.02c	+33.7%	12	50.0%	+2.5	7	42.9%	7L	9.6%	+4.03c	+10.9%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40-45%	33	51.5%	+9.0	15	26.7%	15L	11.6%	-3.90c	-13.3%	42	47.6%	+5.1	19	26.3%	18L	11.9%	-3.82c	-13.2%	34	44.1%	+1.6	21	28.6%	21L	12.7%	-0.56c	-2.0%	15	46.7%	+4.2	9	44.4%	9L	10.5%	+12.25c	+40.7%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35-40%	36	55.6%	+18.1	18	50.0%	18L	9.4%	+20.92c	+78.6%	39	46.2%	+8.7	24	41.7%	19L	8.8%	+12.62c	+46.7%	37	40.5%	+3.0	19	36.8%	19L	10.5%	+9.24c	+35.9%	17	41.2%	+3.7	4	0.0%	4L	3.9%	-33.50c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30-35%	41	34.1%	+1.6	20	25.0%	20L	7.0%	-0.22c	-0.9%	48	33.3%	+0.8	23	26.1%	18L	8.0%	+1.67c	+7.2%	45	22.2%	-10.3	24	20.8%	24L	8.6%	-2.64c	-11.8%	25	40.0%	+7.5	14	42.9%	14L	6.9%	+16.16c	+66.1%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25-30%	49	34.7%	+7.2	26	34.6%	26L	4.1%	+11.03c	+50.9%	49	30.6%	+3.1	28	32.1%	27L	5.2%	+9.83c	+47.9%	49	24.5%	-3.0	24	25.0%	24L	7.6%	+5.46c	+30.2%	24	29.2%	+1.7	12	25.0%	12L	4.6%	+2.71c	+13.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20-25%	66	25.8%	+3.3	35	20.0%	35L	3.3%	+1.23c	+7.0%	69	24.6%	+2.1	36	16.7%	32L	3.7%	-1.38c	-8.1%	62	24.2%	+1.7	33	12.1%	33L	4.4%	-5.29c	-31.7%	32	25.0%	+2.5	20	20.0%	20L	3.0%	+0.95c	+5.3%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	70	27.1%	+9.6	33	18.2%	33L	2.3%	+2.97c	+21.1%	75	25.3%	+7.8	38	15.8%	30L	2.3%	+0.90c	+6.4%	75	20.0%	+2.5	35	5.7%	35L	3.0%	-8.25c	-60.6%	38	21.1%	+3.6	19	10.5%	19L	2.3%	-4.46c	-31.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-15%	50	22.0%	+9.5	8	12.5%	8L	1.1%	-0.39c	-3.2%	64	17.2%	+4.7	14	7.1%	12L	1.7%	-4.15c	-38.3%	51	17.6%	+5.1	11	18.2%	11L	1.2%	+5.16c	+43.3%	32	25.0%	+12.5	7	14.3%	7L	1.2%	+1.55c	+13.1%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5-10%	33	24.2%	+16.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	47	17.0%	+9.5	5	0.0%	5L	1.1%	-6.00c	-100.0%	38	26.3%	+18.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	13	38.5%	+31.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
0-5%	133	13.5%	+11.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	135	14.1%	+11.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	120	17.5%	+15.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	74	18.9%	+16.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

NO Pinnacle Calibration (by Time Window)

Bucket	8AM Scan									10AM Scan									2PM Scan									Pre-Game									Closing									Early vs Close
	All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled Δ			With Edge Δ
	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Edge Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
95-100%	110	84.5%	-13.0	110	84.5%	110L	18.7%	+3.28c	+4.1%	115	84.3%	-13.2	115	84.3%	93L	18.5%	+3.10c	+3.9%	104	79.8%	-17.7	104	79.8%	104L	18.5%	-1.36c	-1.7%	65	80.0%	-17.5	65	80.0%	65L	18.5%	-1.40c	-1.7%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
90-95%	33	75.8%	-16.7	26	69.2%	26L	13.4%	-10.87c	-13.7%	48	83.3%	-9.2	33	75.8%	29L	17.3%	-0.20c	-0.3%	38	73.7%	-18.8	32	68.8%	32L	14.8%	-9.78c	-12.6%	13	61.5%	-31.0	10	50.0%	10L	15.6%	-28.61c	-36.7%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
85-90%	50	78.0%	-9.5	25	72.0%	25L	11.0%	-4.94c	-6.5%	64	82.8%	-4.7	31	80.6%	25L	13.2%	+5.99c	+8.2%	51	82.4%	-5.1	27	74.1%	27L	8.3%	-5.81c	-7.4%	32	75.0%	-12.5	19	68.4%	19L	15.3%	-4.62c	-6.4%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
80-85%	70	72.9%	-9.6	21	52.4%	21L	14.3%	-16.42c	-24.2%	74	74.3%	-8.2	23	56.5%	20L	18.2%	-8.00c	-12.7%	75	80.0%	-2.5	26	57.7%	26L	10.9%	-14.70c	-20.6%	38	78.9%	-3.6	14	57.1%	14L	13.4%	-12.63c	-18.4%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
75-80%	66	74.2%	-3.3	14	35.7%	14L	13.9%	-27.74c	-44.3%	69	75.4%	-2.1	16	37.5%	16L	14.8%	-24.64c	-40.2%	62	75.8%	-1.7	17	47.1%	17L	11.4%	-19.07c	-29.3%	32	75.0%	-2.5	4	50.0%	4L	9.0%	-18.48c	-27.4%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
70-75%	49	65.3%	-7.2	10	50.0%	10L	10.2%	-12.66c	-20.6%	49	69.4%	-3.1	8	50.0%	8L	11.9%	-10.55c	-17.8%	49	75.5%	+3.0	15	60.0%	15L	10.3%	-2.38c	-3.9%	24	70.8%	-1.7	7	42.9%	7L	10.9%	-18.16c	-30.3%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
65-70%	41	65.9%	-1.6	8	37.5%	8L	13.4%	-15.11c	-29.4%	48	66.7%	-0.8	9	44.4%	8L	13.7%	-8.47c	-16.5%	45	77.8%	+10.3	13	76.9%	13L	11.6%	+20.50c	+37.9%	25	60.0%	-7.5	6	66.7%	6L	18.5%	+16.06c	+33.2%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
60-65%	36	44.4%	-18.1	6	16.7%	6L	11.3%	-34.23c	-68.0%	39	53.8%	-8.7	6	33.3%	3L	11.5%	-17.19c	-34.8%	37	59.5%	-3.0	8	25.0%	8L	10.6%	-26.14c	-52.0%	17	58.8%	-3.7	6	33.3%	6L	7.1%	-23.69c	-42.3%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
55-60%	34	47.1%	-10.4	10	30.0%	10L	14.6%	-12.86c	-30.8%	43	51.2%	-6.3	13	38.5%	12L	16.2%	-2.91c	-7.3%	35	54.3%	-3.2	9	22.2%	9L	13.2%	-21.87c	-50.5%	16	50.0%	-7.5	4	50.0%	4L	17.9%	+9.90c	+26.1%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
50-55%	21	33.3%	-19.2	6	16.7%	6L	12.0%	-22.66c	-58.6%	23	34.8%	-17.7	7	0.0%	7L	14.7%	-35.57c	-100.0%	22	40.9%	-11.6	6	16.7%	6L	12.9%	-22.95c	-59.1%	12	50.0%	-2.5	2	0.0%	2L	17.8%	-35.50c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
45-50%	25	20.0%	-27.5	8	0.0%	8L	10.4%	-35.88c	-100.0%	30	33.3%	-14.2	9	0.0%	9L	11.0%	-35.11c	-100.0%	26	23.1%	-24.4	12	8.3%	12L	9.4%	-28.93c	-78.4%	11	9.1%	-38.4	3	0.0%	3L	6.2%	-39.67c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40-45%	15	40.0%	-2.5	3	0.0%	3L	9.3%	-30.67c	-100.0%	20	30.0%	-12.5	6	16.7%	6L	11.6%	-13.02c	-44.9%	17	41.2%	-1.3	6	50.0%	6L	8.4%	+15.66c	+48.9%	7	57.1%	+14.6	2	50.0%	2L	3.7%	+11.83c	+32.9%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35-40%	21	33.3%	-4.2	6	0.0%	6L	11.2%	-25.00c	-100.0%	23	34.8%	-2.7	8	12.5%	7L	12.7%	-11.44c	-49.0%	18	44.4%	+6.9	6	50.0%	6L	9.9%	+20.52c	+76.0%	11	36.4%	-1.1	3	33.3%	3L	9.6%	+4.22c	+15.3%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30-35%	14	7.1%	-25.4	4	0.0%	4L	12.5%	-18.25c	-100.0%	17	5.9%	-26.6	6	0.0%	6L	8.7%	-21.83c	-100.0%	13	15.4%	-17.1	7	0.0%	7L	9.4%	-20.86c	-100.0%	9	22.2%	-10.3	3	0.0%	3L	14.0%	-17.00c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25-30%	16	18.8%	-8.8	9	11.1%	9L	7.2%	-8.46c	-44.5%	17	23.5%	-4.0	11	9.1%	11L	7.2%	-10.30c	-54.5%	15	20.0%	-7.5	7	0.0%	7L	8.1%	-17.71c	-100.0%	10	20.0%	-7.5	4	0.0%	4L	5.4%	-20.50c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20-25%	17	17.6%	-4.9	5	20.0%	5L	4.2%	+2.08c	+12.4%	19	15.8%	-6.7	7	14.3%	7L	5.5%	-2.11c	-13.5%	14	14.3%	-8.2	6	0.0%	6L	6.3%	-15.00c	-100.0%	8	25.0%	+2.5	2	0.0%	2L	4.4%	-16.50c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	13	15.4%	-2.1	1	0.0%	1L	4.1%	-11.00c	-100.0%	13	15.4%	-2.1	2	0.0%	2L	2.1%	-14.00c	-100.0%	7	14.3%	-3.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	6	16.7%	-0.8	1	0.0%	1L	2.1%	-13.00c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-15%	17	11.8%	-0.7	1	0.0%	1L	0.9%	-12.00c	-100.0%	14	14.3%	+1.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	14	14.3%	+1.8	1	0.0%	1L	0.9%	-12.00c	-100.0%	8	12.5%	+0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5-10%	15	6.7%	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	15	6.7%	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	16	6.3%	-1.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	12	8.3%	+0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
0-5%	46	2.2%	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	38	2.6%	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	36	2.8%	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	27	3.7%	+1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

YES Our Model Calibration (by Time Window)

Bucket	8AM Scan									10AM Scan									2PM Scan									Pre-Game									Closing									Early vs Close
	All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled Δ			With Edge Δ
	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Edge Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
95-100%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
90-95%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
85-90%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
80-85%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
75-80%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
70-75%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
65-70%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
60-65%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
55-60%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
50-55%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
45-50%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40-45%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35-40%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30-35%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25-30%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20-25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-15%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5-10%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
0-5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

NO Our Model Calibration (by Time Window)

Bucket	8AM Scan									10AM Scan									2PM Scan									Pre-Game									Closing									Early vs Close
	All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled Δ			With Edge Δ
	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Edge Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
95-100%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
90-95%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
85-90%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
80-85%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
75-80%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
70-75%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
65-70%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
60-65%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
55-60%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
50-55%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
45-50%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40-45%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35-40%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30-35%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25-30%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20-25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-15%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5-10%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
0-5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Win Rate by Edge Size (by Time Window)

Edge	8AM Scan							10AM Scan							2PM Scan							Pre-Game							Closing							Early vs Close
Edge	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	—	PnL Δ	ROI Δ	—
0-2%	90	40	44.4%	90L	17805	+7.83c	+22.3%	100	43	43.0%	87L	51428	+7.81c	+23.3%	81	40	49.4%	81L	13135	+5.93c	+14.1%	50	18	36.0%	50L	82533	+2.43c	+7.5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2-4%	65	21	32.3%	65L	52350	+0.75c	+2.5%	84	23	27.4%	77L	65312	-5.21c	-16.5%	67	25	37.3%	67L	19691	-2.37c	-6.1%	40	13	32.5%	40L	21763	-3.75c	-10.7%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4-6%	40	15	37.5%	40L	11969	+3.10c	+9.4%	48	18	37.5%	39L	11528	+0.67c	+1.9%	50	16	32.0%	50L	23349	-6.24c	-16.7%	19	4	21.1%	19L	22988	-4.24c	-17.3%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
6-8%	27	14	51.9%	27L	21146	+12.74c	+34.2%	31	13	41.9%	27L	5602	+6.20c	+18.1%	48	19	39.6%	48L	22399	+3.09c	+8.8%	16	11	68.8%	16L	40128	+30.79c	+88.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8-10%	35	15	42.9%	35L	12865	+8.23c	+24.8%	33	10	30.3%	29L	13138	-1.84c	-5.9%	46	21	45.7%	46L	43100	+6.00c	+15.7%	19	9	47.4%	19L	33874	+16.29c	+55.6%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-12%	54	20	37.0%	54L	18691	+3.54c	+11.0%	52	22	42.3%	43L	15782	+3.37c	+9.0%	55	17	30.9%	55L	46504	-4.57c	-13.3%	31	8	25.8%	31L	41389	-3.92c	-13.7%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12-15%	67	23	34.3%	67L	15221	-5.42c	-14.1%	72	23	31.9%	64L	35363	-9.26c	-23.0%	72	28	38.9%	72L	23659	-1.02c	-2.6%	35	13	37.1%	35L	9864	+0.17c	+0.5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	70	37	52.9%	70L	34396	+11.14c	+28.0%	73	42	57.5%	59L	35984	+18.49c	+50.4%	69	31	44.9%	69L	40766	+5.63c	+15.0%	47	16	34.0%	47L	61718	-1.22c	-3.6%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20%+	137	62	45.3%	137L	39576	+0.90c	+2.1%	149	80	53.7%	119L	71736	+10.76c	+26.3%	126	57	45.2%	126L	51695	+0.64c	+1.5%	83	36	43.4%	83L	91789	+1.55c	+3.9%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

YES vs NO Performance (by Time Window)

Side	8AM Scan					10AM Scan					2PM Scan					Pre-Game					Closing					Early vs Close
Side	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI
YES (Buy Yes)	385	151	39.2%	+7.77c	+26.2%	414	152	36.7%	+6.59c	+23.1%	356	113	31.7%	+1.93c	+6.8%	206	70	34.0%	+3.24c	+11.1%	—	—	—	—	—	2840	1001	35.2%	+4.86c	+16.8%
NO (Buy No)	347	154	44.4%	-3.47c	-7.5%	384	183	47.7%	-1.17c	-2.5%	354	177	50.0%	-1.83c	-3.6%	186	82	44.1%	+0.08c	+0.2%	—	—	—	—	—	2761	1303	47.2%	-2.38c	-4.9%

Confidence Breakdown (3-Signal Test)

Signals: Spread<5c + Trade<15min + 2+ Books Agree. High=3/3, Medium=2/3, Low=0-1/3

Confidence	8AM Scan					10AM Scan					2PM Scan					Pre-Game					Closing					Early vs Close
	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
HIGH	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
MEDIUM	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
LOW	732	732	41.7%	+1788c	+6.5%	687	687	42.9%	+2190c	+8.3%	710	710	40.8%	+41c	+0.1%	392	392	38.8%	+682c	+4.9%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Closing Line Value (CLV) — Beat Pinnacle's Close?

If you consistently beat the closing line, you have an edge. Need 2000+ wagers for significance.

Scan	Edges w/ CLV	Beat Close	Beat %
10am	773	403	52.1%
12pm	250	137	54.8%
2pm	672	317	47.2%
6am	615	328	53.3%
8am	732	356	48.6%
injury-alert	986	524	53.1%
manual	444	208	46.8%
ml-fix	113	45	39.8%
pregame	392	198	50.5%
sigma-test	124	52	41.9%
sp-test	119	47	39.5%
sp-test2	118	45	38.1%

Dynamic Model Weights — Which De-Vig Methods Win?

Rolling performance per de-vig method. Weight = blend of win rate + ROI (1.0 = average, >1.5 = strong, <0.5 = weak).

Method	Sport	Market	Window	N	Win %	ROI	Avg Edge	Weight
shin	nba	ml	14d	74	68.9%	35.7%	5.1c	1.37
shin	nba	ml	30d	228	64.9%	28.3%	3.5c	1.29
shin	nba	ml	60d	740	64.3%	14.3%	3.3c	1.21
shin	nba	ml	90d	740	64.3%	14.3%	3.3c	1.21
shin	nba	total	30d	1696	62.4%	10.2%	5.0c	1.18
shin	nba	total	60d	6800	62.8%	3.3%	4.2c	1.14
shin	nba	total	90d	6800	62.8%	3.3%	4.2c	1.14
shin	nba	total	14d	513	58.9%	10.3%	7.2c	1.14
shin	nba	spread	30d	1867	49.3%	12.3%	7.0c	1.05
implied	nba	teamTotal	14d	855	53.8%	-7.9%	6.2c	1.00
shin	nba	spread	14d	760	44.6%	3.2%	8.5c	0.96
implied	nba	teamTotal	30d	2512	51.0%	-12.1%	3.3c	0.95
shin	nba	spread	60d	5601	41.1%	3.4%	4.8c	0.93
shin	nba	spread	90d	5601	41.1%	3.4%	4.8c	0.93
implied	nba	teamTotal	60d	7495	49.3%	-13.9%	-0.1c	0.92
implied	nba	teamTotal	90d	7495	49.3%	-13.9%	-0.1c	0.92

Meta-Labels — Single Features

Win rate by individual signal. Shows which features predict wins on their own.

Feature	Sample Size	Wins	Win %	Avg PnL/Bet	Avg Edge
Moneyline market	740	476	64.3%	7.8c	3.3c
Scheduled scan	431	272	63.1%	1.1c	3.7c
Totals (over/under) market	6800	4271	62.8%	2.0c	4.2c
8 AM scan	2751	1546	56.2%	1.8c	1.9c
Steam move detected (sharp money)	4819	2685	55.7%	-0.1c	3.7c
10 AM scan	2873	1547	53.8%	0.4c	2.9c
scan: injury-alert	3404	1831	53.8%	1.9c	4.1c
Closing scan (1 min before game)	3264	1755	53.8%	-2.2c	2.8c
scan: 6am	2159	1156	53.5%	0.8c	1.7c
Large edge (8-15%)	2495	1327	53.2%	0.8c	10.9c
Low confidence (0-1 signals)	12983	6867	52.9%	-1.3c	2.8c
Small edge (2-4%)	13346	7013	52.5%	-3.2c	-2.2c
scan: 12pm	913	477	52.2%	-2.1c	6.0c
Medium edge (4-8%)	2657	1383	52.1%	-2.7c	5.9c
2 PM scan	2936	1509	51.4%	-3.1c	3.7c
No steam move	15817	8059	51.0%	-2.0c	2.4c
scan: manual	1836	932	50.8%	-3.6c	1.1c
scan: recovery	197	100	50.8%	-1.9c	5.2c
Confidence not scored yet	7653	3877	50.7%	-2.0c	2.6c
mkt: teamTotal	7495	3693	49.3%	-7.7c	-0.1c
scan: sigma-test	442	214	48.4%	-5.3c	0.3c
Extra-large edge (15%+)	2138	1021	47.8%	7.7c	20.2c
Pre-game scan	1843	878	47.6%	-7.8c	2.3c
scan: sp-test	437	197	45.1%	-8.4c	0.7c

Meta-Labels — Feature Combos

Win rate by 2-feature combinations. The best combos tell you when to bet bigger.

Feature	Sample Size	Wins	Win %	Avg PnL/Bet	Avg Edge
Scheduled scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	86	67	77.9%	6.5c	6.2c
Scheduled scan + Large edge (8-15%)	92	69	75.0%	5.6c	9.9c
Moneyline market + Small edge (2-4%)	535	374	69.9%	7.4c	-0.6c
Confidence not scored yet + Moneyline market	275	183	66.5%	9.7c	3.4c
Moneyline market + Large edge (8-15%)	70	46	65.7%	9.3c	10.9c
Totals (over/under) market + Small edge (2-4%)	4121	2633	63.9%	0.1c	0.1c
Totals (over/under) market + Large edge (8-15%)	941	601	63.9%	7.9c	10.6c
Totals (over/under) market + Medium edge (4-8%)	1162	742	63.9%	-1.9c	5.8c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Totals (over/under) market	4593	2907	63.3%	1.9c	4.2c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Moneyline market	465	293	63.0%	6.8c	3.3c
8 AM scan + Large edge (8-15%)	283	177	62.5%	8.3c	10.9c
Confidence not scored yet + Totals (over/under) market	2207	1364	61.8%	2.1c	4.2c
8 AM scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	309	179	57.9%	2.0c	5.9c
10 AM scan + Large edge (8-15%)	323	187	57.9%	4.3c	11.0c
Pre-game scan + Large edge (8-15%)	212	121	57.1%	-1.8c	10.3c
Closing scan (1 min before game) + Large edge (8-15%)	388	221	57.0%	-2.4c	10.7c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Steam move detected (sharp money)	3016	1710	56.7%	-1.5c	3.5c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Large edge (8-15%)	1627	921	56.6%	2.4c	10.9c
8 AM scan + Extra-large edge (15%+)	263	148	56.3%	17.8c	19.9c
Closing scan (1 min before game) + Medium edge (4-8%)	493	277	56.2%	-6.6c	5.9c
scan: 6am + Medium edge (4-8%)	212	119	56.1%	5.7c	5.9c
scan: injury-alert + Extra-large edge (15%+)	453	252	55.6%	13.7c	20.8c
scan: 6am + Large edge (8-15%)	217	120	55.3%	8.7c	11.4c
8 AM scan + Small edge (2-4%)	1896	1042	55.0%	-1.4c	-2.5c
scan: 12pm + Extra-large edge (15%+)	133	73	54.9%	8.2c	19.4c
10 AM scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	369	201	54.5%	-2.3c	5.9c
Closing scan (1 min before game) + Extra-large edge (15%+)	160	87	54.4%	5.4c	18.8c
Scheduled scan + Small edge (2-4%)	232	126	54.3%	-3.1c	-0.9c
Confidence not scored yet + Steam move detected (sharp money)	1803	975	54.1%	2.1c	4.1c
scan: 6am + Small edge (2-4%)	1486	801	53.9%	-2.7c	-3.3c
scan: injury-alert + Small edge (2-4%)	1997	1075	53.8%	-0.8c	-1.9c
10 AM scan + Extra-large edge (15%+)	314	169	53.8%	15.6c	21.5c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Medium edge (4-8%)	1714	922	53.8%	-2.0c	5.9c
scan: manual + Small edge (2-4%)	1323	708	53.5%	-3.8c	-3.2c
scan: injury-alert + Large edge (8-15%)	513	273	53.2%	3.4c	11.2c
2 PM scan + Large edge (8-15%)	454	241	53.1%	-3.3c	10.7c
10 AM scan + Small edge (2-4%)	1867	990	53.0%	-2.4c	-2.2c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Small edge (2-4%)	8306	4386	52.8%	-3.4c	-2.2c
Closing scan (1 min before game) + Small edge (2-4%)	2223	1170	52.6%	-1.8c	-0.4c
2 PM scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	462	243	52.6%	-4.5c	5.9c
scan: 12pm + Small edge (2-4%)	424	223	52.6%	-5.3c	-0.6c
scan: 12pm + Large edge (8-15%)	200	105	52.5%	-1.5c	11.2c
2 PM scan + Small edge (2-4%)	1727	905	52.4%	-3.1c	-1.4c
scan: injury-alert + Medium edge (4-8%)	441	231	52.4%	0.0c	5.9c
Confidence not scored yet + Small edge (2-4%)	5040	2627	52.1%	-3.0c	-2.2c
scan: sigma-test + Medium edge (4-8%)	48	25	52.1%	-5.6c	5.8c
scan: recovery + Small edge (2-4%)	104	54	51.9%	-3.8c	-0.5c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + No steam move	9967	5157	51.7%	-1.2c	2.6c
scan: recovery + Medium edge (4-8%)	33	17	51.5%	4.7c	6.2c
Totals (over/under) market + Extra-large edge (15%+)	576	295	51.2%	13.7c	19.6c
Pre-game scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	280	143	51.1%	-7.9c	5.9c
Moneyline market + Medium edge (4-8%)	47	24	51.1%	5.7c	6.4c
mkt: teamTotal + Small edge (2-4%)	5123	2578	50.3%	-9.3c	-5.9c
scan: sigma-test + Small edge (2-4%)	359	180	50.1%	-3.9c	-2.0c
scan: recovery + Large edge (8-15%)	34	17	50.0%	-4.1c	10.4c
Confidence not scored yet + No steam move	5850	2902	49.6%	-3.3c	2.2c
mkt: teamTotal + Medium edge (4-8%)	777	384	49.4%	-5.3c	6.1c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + mkt: teamTotal	4519	2229	49.3%	-7.9c	-0.1c
Confidence not scored yet + mkt: teamTotal	2976	1464	49.2%	-7.6c	-0.2c
Confidence not scored yet + Medium edge (4-8%)	943	461	48.9%	-4.0c	5.9c
scan: 12pm + Medium edge (4-8%)	156	76	48.7%	-3.1c	5.8c
scan: sp-test + Small edge (2-4%)	329	160	48.6%	-6.9c	-2.4c
scan: ml-fix + Small edge (2-4%)	303	146	48.2%	-5.6c	-2.3c
Pre-game scan + Small edge (2-4%)	1225	589	48.1%	-7.9c	-1.7c
Confidence not scored yet + Extra-large edge (15%+)	802	383	47.8%	6.9c	20.4c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Extra-large edge (15%+)	1336	638	47.8%	8.1c	20.1c
Scheduled scan + Extra-large edge (15%+)	21	10	47.6%	6.4c	18.2c
scan: 6am + Extra-large edge (15%+)	244	116	47.5%	10.3c	19.8c
scan: manual + Medium edge (4-8%)	173	82	47.4%	-7.5c	5.9c
Spread market + Extra-large edge (15%+)	689	326	47.3%	9.6c	21.3c
Spread market + Large edge (8-15%)	674	317	47.0%	1.9c	11.2c
mkt: teamTotal + Extra-large edge (15%+)	785	368	46.9%	1.2c	19.7c
Confidence not scored yet + Large edge (8-15%)	868	406	46.8%	-2.2c	11.0c
scan: recovery + Extra-large edge (15%+)	26	12	46.2%	0.2c	19.8c
scan: sp-test2 + Small edge (2-4%)	306	140	45.8%	-7.7c	-2.2c
mkt: teamTotal + Large edge (8-15%)	810	363	44.8%	-9.1c	11.2c

Alpha Decay — Is the Edge Fading? (Last 16 Weeks)

Weekly ROI per strategy. Declining ROI = strategy crowding out. Each row is one ISO week.

Strategy	Week	N	Win %	ROI	Avg Edge
implied::teamTotal	2026-W19	180	52.8%	-12.3%	6.6c
	2026-W18	295	60.0%	-2.6%	4.9c
	2026-W17	646	50.6%	-9.9%	6.9c
	2026-W16	835	43.7%	-27.1%	1.7c
	2026-W15	774	52.2%	-2.6%	-0.2c
	2026-W14	3407	50.8%	-12.0%	-2.0c
	2026-W13	1358	43.7%	-21.2%	-2.0c

shin::ml	2026-W19	18	94.4%	204.2%	2.7c
	2026-W18	14	85.7%	20.3%	4.7c
	2026-W17	66	51.5%	14.7%	4.0c
	2026-W16	82	59.8%	-0.1%	3.5c
	2026-W15	64	71.9%	74.2%	3.9c
	2026-W14	392	61.5%	4.0%	4.0c
	2026-W13	104	74.0%	21.2%	0.0c
	2026-W12	16	37.5%	-30.3%	2.7c

shin::spread	2026-W19	221	51.1%	23.1%	13.5c
	2026-W18	292	35.6%	-13.5%	4.2c
	2026-W17	413	44.8%	-4.9%	8.2c
	2026-W16	557	59.2%	34.8%	5.4c
	2026-W15	529	44.8%	-0.2%	6.2c
	2026-W14	2620	39.5%	6.3%	3.7c
	2026-W13	969	30.9%	-18.2%	3.4c
	2026-W12	227	44.9%	-18.1%	4.0c

shin::total	2026-W19	122	84.4%	72.7%	5.1c
	2026-W18	152	59.9%	10.6%	5.9c
	2026-W17	395	53.4%	-7.0%	7.5c
	2026-W16	608	56.7%	-4.9%	3.7c
	2026-W15	547	68.7%	30.6%	4.4c
	2026-W14	2909	62.8%	4.2%	3.8c
	2026-W13	1878	64.9%	-3.3%	3.7c
	2026-W12	189	52.9%	-1.0%	5.5c

Odds-as-Features — Which Numbers Predict Wins?

Point-biserial correlation between each edge feature and win/loss. Higher |r| = more predictive. Positive r = higher value → more wins.

#	Feature	N	Mean (Win)	Mean (Loss)	Correlation	\|r\|
1	Execution Price	20636	0.5925	0.4437	0.3111	0.3111
2	Exec Price (No)	20636	0.5620	0.5990	-0.0767	0.0767
3	Model Prob (Yes)	20636	0.4855	0.4446	0.0765	0.0765
4	Model Prob (No)	20636	0.5145	0.5554	-0.0765	0.0765
5	Net Edge (Yes)	20636	-0.0633	-0.0844	0.0629	0.0629
6	Spread (cents)	20521	10.0579	11.8112	-0.0605	0.0605
7	Pinnacle Move	7189	1.5988	2.0870	-0.0499	0.0499
8	Steam Detected	20636	0.2499	0.2157	0.0404	0.0404
9	Exec Price (Yes)	20636	0.5382	0.5186	0.0380	0.0380
10	Net Edge (No)	20636	-0.0585	-0.0543	-0.0130	0.0130
11	Net Edge	20636	0.0280	0.0268	0.0064	0.0064
12	Steam Magnitude	20636	0.6954	0.6833	0.0031	0.0031
13	Trade Volume	12983	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
14	Taker % (Yes)	12983	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
15	Soft Book Consensus	12983	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
16	Is Longshot	20636	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000

Fill Quality Monitoring — Are We Getting Profiled?

Tracks execution quality over time. Rising slippage or widening spreads may indicate account profiling by market makers.

Period	Sport	Market	N	Avg Spread	Avg Slippage	Fill Rate	Avg Edge	Taker %
2026-W19	nba	total	122	1.5	19.88%	100%	5.13%	0.0%
2026-W19	nba	teamTotal	190	8.5	38.99%	100%	6.16%	0.0%
2026-W19	nba	spread	223	1.5	25.42%	100%	13.38%	0.0%
2026-W19	nba	ml	22	1.2	20.89%	100%	2.57%	0.0%
2026-W18	nba	total	152	2.0	20.82%	100%	5.88%	0.0%
2026-W18	nba	teamTotal	313	10.5	31.74%	100%	4.34%	0.0%
2026-W18	nba	spread	292	2.3	24.31%	100%	4.22%	0.0%
2026-W18	nba	ml	14	1.0	25.64%	100%	4.74%	0.0%
2026-W17	nba	total	398	2.3	14.83%	100%	7.44%	0.0%
2026-W17	nba	teamTotal	705	11.3	25.28%	100%	6.19%	0.0%
2026-W17	nba	spread	416	2.4	24.12%	100%	8.20%	0.0%
2026-W17	nba	ml	66	1.1	19.13%	100%	3.99%	0.0%
2026-W16	nba	total	609	3.3	14.44%	100%	3.72%	0.0%
2026-W16	nba	teamTotal	981	22.4	28.28%	100%	1.14%	0.0%
2026-W16	nba	spread	564	2.8	23.72%	100%	5.31%	0.0%
2026-W16	nba	ml	82	1.8	20.69%	100%	3.48%	0.0%
2026-W15	nba	total	547	4.7	24.79%	100%	4.43%	0.0%
2026-W15	nba	teamTotal	1106	31.8	30.86%	100%	-2.97%	0.0%
2026-W15	nba	spread	541	5.4	24.88%	100%	5.83%	0.0%
2026-W15	nba	ml	64	1.0	19.26%	100%	3.94%	0.0%
2026-W14	nba	total	2916	5.8	21.70%	100%	3.78%	0.0%
2026-W14	nba	teamTotal	4486	29.7	29.97%	100%	-4.20%	0.0%
2026-W14	nba	spread	2666	5.0	18.03%	100%	3.56%	0.0%
2026-W14	nba	ml	392	1.1	25.91%	100%	3.97%	0.0%
2026-W13	nba	total	1878	3.0	19.00%	100%	3.74%	0.0%
2026-W13	nba	teamTotal	1838	33.1	27.55%	100%	-4.41%	0.0%
2026-W13	nba	spread	978	5.6	19.19%	100%	3.31%	0.0%
2026-W13	nba	ml	104	1.1	22.06%	100%	0.03%	0.0%
2026-W12	nba	total	193	2.6	24.84%	39%	5.43%	0.0%
2026-W12	nba	spread	240	4.4	33.65%	53%	4.09%	0.0%
2026-W12	nba	ml	16	1.0	10.97%	50%	2.71%	0.0%

Granger Causality — Does X Predict Y?

Tests if lagged values of one series help predict another. Significant (p<0.05) means X Granger-causes Y — useful for timing entries.

X (Cause)	Y (Effect)	Lag	F-Stat	p-value	Direction	Significant?	N
edge_net_edge	outcome	1	51.156	<0.001	negative	YES	39127
edge_spread_cents	outcome	1	39.222	<0.001	positive	YES	39127
edge_steam_magnitude	outcome	1	2.476	0.1156	positive	no	39127

Data Viewer: edge-scanner-nba-spreads

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