edge-scanner-nba-ml | Data Viewer

id ▼	scan type ▼	detected at ▼	game id ▼	team code ▼	Kalshi Line ▼	rung ▼	yes exec price ▼	no exec price ▼	spread cents ▼	PIN Anchor ▼	PIN Yes Prob ▼	PIN No Prob ▼	PIN Yes Edge ▼	PIN No Edge ▼	PIN Best Side ▼	confidence ▼	executable ▼	settled at ▼	sub market ▼	is tie ▼

Edge Scanner Summary

YES Pinnacle Calibration (by Time Window)

Bucket	8AM Scan									10AM Scan									2PM Scan									Pre-Game									Closing									Early vs Close
	All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled Δ			With Edge Δ
	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Edge Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
95-100%	1	100.0%	+2.5	1	100.0%	1L	9.3%	+11.16c	+12.7%	1	100.0%	+2.5	1	100.0%	1L	9.3%	+11.16c	+12.7%	1	100.0%	+2.5	1	100.0%	1L	9.3%	+11.16c	+12.7%	1	100.0%	+2.5	1	100.0%	1L	9.3%	+11.16c	+12.7%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
90-95%	2	100.0%	+7.5	2	100.0%	2L	1.2%	+9.76c	+10.9%	2	100.0%	+7.5	1	100.0%	1L	1.5%	+10.23c	+11.5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	100.0%	+7.5	1	100.0%	1L	0.7%	+9.30c	+10.3%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
85-90%	7	71.4%	-16.1	4	50.0%	4L	6.3%	-30.47c	-38.1%	7	71.4%	-16.1	2	50.0%	2L	5.3%	-32.27c	-39.6%	2	100.0%	+12.5	2	100.0%	2L	4.6%	+16.28c	+19.7%	3	66.7%	-20.8	1	0.0%	1L	22.3%	-63.00c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
80-85%	6	66.7%	-15.8	1	0.0%	1L	1.5%	-79.00c	-100.0%	6	83.3%	+0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	6	83.3%	+0.8	1	100.0%	1L	0.1%	+15.81c	+19.0%	4	50.0%	-32.5	1	0.0%	1L	1.0%	-78.00c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
75-80%	4	100.0%	+22.5	1	100.0%	1L	0.6%	+20.46c	+26.2%	5	100.0%	+22.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	7	71.4%	-6.1	2	0.0%	2L	7.3%	-70.00c	-100.0%	3	100.0%	+22.5	1	100.0%	1L	0.6%	+20.46c	+26.2%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
70-75%	4	100.0%	+27.5	1	100.0%	1L	4.1%	+30.69c	+45.8%	1	100.0%	+27.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	3	66.7%	-5.8	1	0.0%	1L	7.3%	-61.00c	-100.0%	2	100.0%	+27.5	1	100.0%	1L	3.1%	+29.76c	+43.8%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
65-70%	8	75.0%	+7.5	1	0.0%	1L	13.5%	-50.00c	-100.0%	7	71.4%	+3.9	1	0.0%	1L	13.5%	-50.00c	-100.0%	6	83.3%	+15.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	4	75.0%	+7.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
60-65%	8	75.0%	+12.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	9	77.8%	+15.3	1	0.0%	1L	1.1%	-58.00c	-100.0%	7	57.1%	-5.4	1	100.0%	1L	0.5%	+36.27c	+59.5%	2	100.0%	+37.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
55-60%	7	42.9%	-14.6	2	50.0%	2L	12.7%	+6.28c	+15.0%	8	37.5%	-20.0	1	100.0%	1L	3.5%	+45.57c	+89.4%	6	66.7%	+9.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	6	16.7%	-40.8	1	0.0%	1L	21.9%	-33.00c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
50-55%	6	50.0%	-2.5	1	0.0%	1L	18.9%	-32.00c	-100.0%	6	50.0%	-2.5	1	0.0%	—	18.9%	-32.00c	-100.0%	7	57.1%	+4.6	2	0.0%	2L	10.4%	-40.00c	-100.0%	6	66.7%	+14.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
45-50%	6	50.0%	+2.5	1	0.0%	1L	19.5%	-27.00c	-100.0%	6	50.0%	+2.5	1	0.0%	—	19.5%	-27.00c	-100.0%	7	42.9%	-4.6	2	0.0%	2L	11.9%	-33.50c	-100.0%	4	25.0%	-22.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40-45%	8	62.5%	+20.0	2	0.0%	2L	6.3%	-34.50c	-100.0%	8	62.5%	+20.0	3	33.3%	2L	5.7%	-3.14c	-9.0%	6	33.3%	-9.2	1	0.0%	1L	0.1%	-41.00c	-100.0%	6	83.3%	+40.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35-40%	7	14.3%	-23.2	2	0.0%	2L	19.2%	-17.00c	-100.0%	9	22.2%	-15.3	3	0.0%	3L	19.4%	-16.33c	-100.0%	7	42.9%	+5.4	2	0.0%	2L	19.2%	-17.00c	-100.0%	2	0.0%	-37.5	1	0.0%	1L	18.8%	-16.00c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30-35%	8	25.0%	-7.5	3	0.0%	3L	15.2%	-16.67c	-100.0%	7	28.6%	-3.9	3	0.0%	2L	15.2%	-16.67c	-100.0%	6	16.7%	-15.8	3	0.0%	3L	15.2%	-16.67c	-100.0%	4	25.0%	-7.5	2	0.0%	2L	14.3%	-17.00c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25-30%	4	0.0%	-27.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	0.0%	-27.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	3	33.3%	+5.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	2	0.0%	-27.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20-25%	4	0.0%	-22.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	5	0.0%	-22.5	1	0.0%	1L	2.1%	-18.00c	-100.0%	7	28.6%	+6.1	3	0.0%	3L	1.2%	-19.33c	-100.0%	3	0.0%	-22.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	6	33.3%	+15.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	6	16.7%	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	6	16.7%	-0.8	1	0.0%	1L	1.5%	-14.00c	-100.0%	4	50.0%	+32.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-15%	7	28.6%	+16.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	7	28.6%	+16.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	2	0.0%	-12.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	3	33.3%	+20.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5-10%	2	0.0%	-7.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	2	0.0%	-7.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
0-5%	1	0.0%	-2.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	0.0%	-2.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	0.0%	-2.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	0.0%	-2.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

NO Pinnacle Calibration (by Time Window)

Bucket	8AM Scan									10AM Scan									2PM Scan									Pre-Game									Closing									Early vs Close
	All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled Δ			With Edge Δ
	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Edge Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
95-100%	1	100.0%	+2.5	1	100.0%	1L	10.2%	+12.09c	+13.9%	1	100.0%	+2.5	1	100.0%	1L	10.2%	+12.09c	+13.9%	1	100.0%	+2.5	1	100.0%	1L	10.2%	+12.09c	+13.9%	1	100.0%	+2.5	1	100.0%	1L	10.2%	+12.09c	+13.9%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
90-95%	2	100.0%	+7.5	2	100.0%	2L	1.2%	+9.76c	+10.9%	2	100.0%	+7.5	1	100.0%	1L	1.5%	+10.23c	+11.5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
85-90%	7	71.4%	-16.1	4	50.0%	4L	6.5%	-30.24c	-37.9%	7	71.4%	-16.1	3	66.7%	3L	3.7%	-17.79c	-21.3%	2	100.0%	+12.5	2	100.0%	2L	4.6%	+16.28c	+19.7%	3	66.7%	-20.8	1	0.0%	1L	22.3%	-63.00c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
80-85%	6	66.7%	-15.8	3	33.3%	3L	0.7%	-47.44c	-59.1%	6	83.3%	+0.8	1	0.0%	1L	0.0%	-81.00c	-100.0%	6	83.3%	+0.8	1	100.0%	1L	0.1%	+15.81c	+19.0%	4	50.0%	-32.5	1	0.0%	1L	1.0%	-78.00c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
75-80%	4	100.0%	+22.5	1	100.0%	1L	0.6%	+20.46c	+26.2%	5	100.0%	+22.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	7	71.4%	-6.1	2	0.0%	2L	7.3%	-70.00c	-100.0%	3	100.0%	+22.5	2	100.0%	2L	0.7%	+21.86c	+28.6%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
70-75%	4	100.0%	+27.5	2	100.0%	2L	1.9%	+27.90c	+39.9%	1	100.0%	+27.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	3	66.7%	-5.8	1	0.0%	1L	8.2%	-60.00c	-100.0%	2	100.0%	+27.5	1	100.0%	1L	3.1%	+29.76c	+43.8%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
65-70%	8	75.0%	+7.5	1	0.0%	1L	13.5%	-50.00c	-100.0%	7	71.4%	+3.9	1	0.0%	1L	13.5%	-50.00c	-100.0%	6	83.3%	+15.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	4	75.0%	+7.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
60-65%	8	75.0%	+12.5	1	100.0%	1L	0.0%	+36.27c	+59.5%	9	77.8%	+15.3	2	50.0%	2L	0.5%	-11.36c	-18.9%	7	57.1%	-5.4	1	100.0%	1L	0.5%	+36.27c	+59.5%	2	100.0%	+37.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
55-60%	7	42.9%	-14.6	2	50.0%	2L	13.2%	+6.78c	+16.3%	8	37.5%	-20.0	1	100.0%	1L	3.5%	+45.57c	+89.4%	6	66.7%	+9.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	6	16.7%	-40.8	1	0.0%	1L	22.9%	-32.00c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
50-55%	6	50.0%	-2.5	1	0.0%	1L	17.9%	-33.00c	-100.0%	6	50.0%	-2.5	1	0.0%	—	17.9%	-33.00c	-100.0%	7	57.1%	+4.6	2	0.0%	2L	11.4%	-39.00c	-100.0%	6	66.7%	+14.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
45-50%	6	50.0%	+2.5	1	0.0%	1L	20.5%	-26.00c	-100.0%	6	50.0%	+2.5	1	0.0%	—	20.5%	-26.00c	-100.0%	7	42.9%	-4.6	2	0.0%	2L	12.3%	-33.00c	-100.0%	4	25.0%	-22.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40-45%	8	62.5%	+20.0	2	0.0%	2L	6.8%	-34.00c	-100.0%	8	62.5%	+20.0	3	33.3%	2L	6.0%	-2.83c	-8.2%	6	33.3%	-9.2	1	0.0%	1L	0.1%	-41.00c	-100.0%	6	83.3%	+40.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35-40%	7	14.3%	-23.2	2	0.0%	2L	19.2%	-17.00c	-100.0%	9	22.2%	-15.3	3	0.0%	3L	19.7%	-16.00c	-100.0%	7	42.9%	+5.4	2	0.0%	2L	19.2%	-17.00c	-100.0%	2	0.0%	-37.5	1	0.0%	1L	18.8%	-16.00c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30-35%	8	25.0%	-7.5	3	0.0%	3L	15.2%	-16.67c	-100.0%	7	28.6%	-3.9	3	0.0%	2L	15.2%	-16.67c	-100.0%	6	16.7%	-15.8	3	0.0%	3L	15.2%	-16.67c	-100.0%	4	25.0%	-7.5	2	0.0%	2L	14.8%	-16.50c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25-30%	4	0.0%	-27.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	0.0%	-27.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	3	33.3%	+5.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	2	0.0%	-27.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20-25%	4	0.0%	-22.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	5	0.0%	-22.5	1	0.0%	1L	2.1%	-18.00c	-100.0%	7	28.6%	+6.1	3	0.0%	3L	1.2%	-19.33c	-100.0%	3	0.0%	-22.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	6	33.3%	+15.8	1	0.0%	1L	5.5%	-11.00c	-100.0%	6	16.7%	-0.8	1	0.0%	1L	5.5%	-11.00c	-100.0%	6	16.7%	-0.8	1	0.0%	1L	1.5%	-14.00c	-100.0%	4	50.0%	+32.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-15%	7	28.6%	+16.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	7	28.6%	+16.1	1	100.0%	1L	0.6%	+82.77c	+752.5%	2	0.0%	-12.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	3	33.3%	+20.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5-10%	2	0.0%	-7.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	2	0.0%	-7.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	0.0%	-7.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
0-5%	1	0.0%	-2.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	0.0%	-2.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	0.0%	-2.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	0.0%	-2.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

YES Our Model Calibration (by Time Window)

Bucket	8AM Scan									10AM Scan									2PM Scan									Pre-Game									Closing									Early vs Close
	All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled Δ			With Edge Δ
	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Edge Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
95-100%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
90-95%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
85-90%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
80-85%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
75-80%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
70-75%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
65-70%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
60-65%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
55-60%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
50-55%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
45-50%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40-45%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35-40%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30-35%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25-30%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20-25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-15%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5-10%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
0-5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

NO Our Model Calibration (by Time Window)

Bucket	8AM Scan									10AM Scan									2PM Scan									Pre-Game									Closing									Early vs Close
	All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled Δ			With Edge Δ
	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Edge Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
95-100%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
90-95%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
85-90%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
80-85%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
75-80%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
70-75%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
65-70%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
60-65%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
55-60%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
50-55%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
45-50%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40-45%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35-40%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30-35%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25-30%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20-25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-15%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5-10%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
0-5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Win Rate by Edge Size (by Time Window)

Edge	8AM Scan							10AM Scan							2PM Scan							Pre-Game							Closing							Early vs Close
Edge	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	—	PnL Δ	ROI Δ	—
0-2%	14	11	78.6%	14L	687527	-3.45c	-4.3%	10	4	40.0%	10L	422887	-31.11c	-44.1%	17	11	64.7%	17L	1674196	+19.25c	+44.5%	6	4	66.7%	6L	2579851	-13.76c	-17.3%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2-4%	9	5	55.6%	9L	618414	-11.52c	-17.5%	7	5	71.4%	5L	1057211	+32.20c	+89.8%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2	2	100.0%	2L	389750	+29.76c	+43.8%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4-6%	2	2	100.0%	2L	748157	+56.73c	+145.5%	2	1	50.0%	2L	11624	+24.26c	+103.2%	3	3	100.0%	3L	1798361	+54.25c	+130.2%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
6-8%	2	2	100.0%	2L	1294660	+72.08c	+320.3%	2	2	100.0%	2L	0	+72.08c	+320.3%	7	0	0.0%	7L	648136	-55.14c	-100.0%	2	2	100.0%	2L	1793101	+72.08c	+320.3%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8-10%	1	1	100.0%	1L	0	+11.16c	+12.7%	3	3	100.0%	3L	0	+17.36c	+21.3%	4	3	75.0%	4L	462556	-1.98c	-2.6%	1	1	100.0%	1L	0	+11.16c	+12.7%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-12%	3	3	100.0%	3L	275822	+47.43c	+96.8%	3	3	100.0%	3L	0	+47.43c	+96.8%	1	1	100.0%	1L	0	+12.09c	+13.9%	1	1	100.0%	1L	0	+12.09c	+13.9%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12-15%	2	0	0.0%	2L	566400	-50.00c	-100.0%	2	0	0.0%	2L	0	-50.00c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	9	6	66.7%	9L	1034794	+41.58c	+193.9%	10	4	40.0%	5L	1526232	+17.09c	+82.1%	9	1	11.1%	9L	275141	-10.97c	-51.2%	2	0	0.0%	2L	0	-16.00c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20%+	7	2	28.6%	7L	539803	-6.92c	-20.3%	4	2	50.0%	3L	1042918	+31.44c	+202.8%	3	0	0.0%	3L	0	-16.00c	-100.0%	6	0	0.0%	6L	127610	-35.50c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

YES vs NO Performance (by Time Window)

Side	8AM Scan					10AM Scan					2PM Scan					Pre-Game					Closing					Early vs Close
Side	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI
YES (Buy Yes)	49	37	75.5%	+13.92c	+23.4%	45	30	66.7%	+11.08c	+20.7%	46	23	50.0%	-2.03c	-4.0%	28	18	64.3%	+2.72c	+4.5%	—	—	—	—	—	348	225	64.7%	+7.56c	+13.7%
NO (Buy No)	57	41	71.9%	+12.22c	+21.1%	59	40	67.8%	+13.53c	+25.8%	44	22	50.0%	-1.77c	-3.5%	33	21	63.6%	+4.98c	+8.7%	—	—	—	—	—	392	251	64.0%	+8.08c	+14.9%

Confidence Breakdown (3-Signal Test)

Signals: Spread<5c + Trade<15min + 2+ Books Agree. High=3/3, Medium=2/3, Low=0-1/3

Confidence	8AM Scan					10AM Scan					2PM Scan					Pre-Game					Closing					Early vs Close
	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
HIGH	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
MEDIUM	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
LOW	106	106	73.6%	+1379c	+22.2%	88	88	67.0%	+1019c	+21.6%	90	90	50.0%	-171c	-3.8%	61	61	63.9%	+240c	+6.7%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Closing Line Value (CLV) — Beat Pinnacle's Close?

If you consistently beat the closing line, you have an edge. Need 2000+ wagers for significance.

Scan	Edges w/ CLV	Beat Close	Beat %
10am	104	47	45.2%
12pm	26	14	53.8%
2pm	90	44	48.9%
6am	94	42	44.7%
8am	106	45	42.5%
injury-alert	120	56	46.7%
manual	65	26	40.0%
ml-fix	12	7	58.3%
pregame	61	24	39.3%
sigma-test	14	2	14.3%
sp-test	14	6	42.9%
sp-test2	12	6	50.0%

Dynamic Model Weights — Which De-Vig Methods Win?

Rolling performance per de-vig method. Weight = blend of win rate + ROI (1.0 = average, >1.5 = strong, <0.5 = weak).

Method	Sport	Market	Window	N	Win %	ROI	Avg Edge	Weight
shin	nba	ml	14d	74	68.9%	35.7%	5.1c	1.37
shin	nba	ml	30d	228	64.9%	28.3%	3.5c	1.29
shin	nba	ml	60d	740	64.3%	14.3%	3.3c	1.21
shin	nba	ml	90d	740	64.3%	14.3%	3.3c	1.21
shin	nba	total	30d	1696	62.4%	10.2%	5.0c	1.18
shin	nba	total	60d	6800	62.8%	3.3%	4.2c	1.14
shin	nba	total	90d	6800	62.8%	3.3%	4.2c	1.14
shin	nba	total	14d	513	58.9%	10.3%	7.2c	1.14
shin	nba	spread	30d	1867	49.3%	12.3%	7.0c	1.05
implied	nba	teamTotal	14d	855	53.8%	-7.9%	6.2c	1.00
shin	nba	spread	14d	760	44.6%	3.2%	8.5c	0.96
implied	nba	teamTotal	30d	2512	51.0%	-12.1%	3.3c	0.95
shin	nba	spread	60d	5601	41.1%	3.4%	4.8c	0.93
shin	nba	spread	90d	5601	41.1%	3.4%	4.8c	0.93
implied	nba	teamTotal	60d	7495	49.3%	-13.9%	-0.1c	0.92
implied	nba	teamTotal	90d	7495	49.3%	-13.9%	-0.1c	0.92

Meta-Labels — Single Features

Win rate by individual signal. Shows which features predict wins on their own.

Feature	Sample Size	Wins	Win %	Avg PnL/Bet	Avg Edge
Moneyline market	740	476	64.3%	7.8c	3.3c
Scheduled scan	431	272	63.1%	1.1c	3.7c
Totals (over/under) market	6800	4271	62.8%	2.0c	4.2c
8 AM scan	2751	1546	56.2%	1.8c	1.9c
Steam move detected (sharp money)	4819	2685	55.7%	-0.1c	3.7c
10 AM scan	2873	1547	53.8%	0.4c	2.9c
scan: injury-alert	3404	1831	53.8%	1.9c	4.1c
Closing scan (1 min before game)	3264	1755	53.8%	-2.2c	2.8c
scan: 6am	2159	1156	53.5%	0.8c	1.7c
Large edge (8-15%)	2495	1327	53.2%	0.8c	10.9c
Low confidence (0-1 signals)	12983	6867	52.9%	-1.3c	2.8c
Small edge (2-4%)	13346	7013	52.5%	-3.2c	-2.2c
scan: 12pm	913	477	52.2%	-2.1c	6.0c
Medium edge (4-8%)	2657	1383	52.1%	-2.7c	5.9c
2 PM scan	2936	1509	51.4%	-3.1c	3.7c
No steam move	15817	8059	51.0%	-2.0c	2.4c
scan: manual	1836	932	50.8%	-3.6c	1.1c
scan: recovery	197	100	50.8%	-1.9c	5.2c
Confidence not scored yet	7653	3877	50.7%	-2.0c	2.6c
mkt: teamTotal	7495	3693	49.3%	-7.7c	-0.1c
scan: sigma-test	442	214	48.4%	-5.3c	0.3c
Extra-large edge (15%+)	2138	1021	47.8%	7.7c	20.2c
Pre-game scan	1843	878	47.6%	-7.8c	2.3c
scan: sp-test	437	197	45.1%	-8.4c	0.7c

Meta-Labels — Feature Combos

Win rate by 2-feature combinations. The best combos tell you when to bet bigger.

Feature	Sample Size	Wins	Win %	Avg PnL/Bet	Avg Edge
Scheduled scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	86	67	77.9%	6.5c	6.2c
Scheduled scan + Large edge (8-15%)	92	69	75.0%	5.6c	9.9c
Moneyline market + Small edge (2-4%)	535	374	69.9%	7.4c	-0.6c
Confidence not scored yet + Moneyline market	275	183	66.5%	9.7c	3.4c
Moneyline market + Large edge (8-15%)	70	46	65.7%	9.3c	10.9c
Totals (over/under) market + Small edge (2-4%)	4121	2633	63.9%	0.1c	0.1c
Totals (over/under) market + Large edge (8-15%)	941	601	63.9%	7.9c	10.6c
Totals (over/under) market + Medium edge (4-8%)	1162	742	63.9%	-1.9c	5.8c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Totals (over/under) market	4593	2907	63.3%	1.9c	4.2c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Moneyline market	465	293	63.0%	6.8c	3.3c
8 AM scan + Large edge (8-15%)	283	177	62.5%	8.3c	10.9c
Confidence not scored yet + Totals (over/under) market	2207	1364	61.8%	2.1c	4.2c
8 AM scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	309	179	57.9%	2.0c	5.9c
10 AM scan + Large edge (8-15%)	323	187	57.9%	4.3c	11.0c
Pre-game scan + Large edge (8-15%)	212	121	57.1%	-1.8c	10.3c
Closing scan (1 min before game) + Large edge (8-15%)	388	221	57.0%	-2.4c	10.7c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Steam move detected (sharp money)	3016	1710	56.7%	-1.5c	3.5c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Large edge (8-15%)	1627	921	56.6%	2.4c	10.9c
8 AM scan + Extra-large edge (15%+)	263	148	56.3%	17.8c	19.9c
Closing scan (1 min before game) + Medium edge (4-8%)	493	277	56.2%	-6.6c	5.9c
scan: 6am + Medium edge (4-8%)	212	119	56.1%	5.7c	5.9c
scan: injury-alert + Extra-large edge (15%+)	453	252	55.6%	13.7c	20.8c
scan: 6am + Large edge (8-15%)	217	120	55.3%	8.7c	11.4c
8 AM scan + Small edge (2-4%)	1896	1042	55.0%	-1.4c	-2.5c
scan: 12pm + Extra-large edge (15%+)	133	73	54.9%	8.2c	19.4c
10 AM scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	369	201	54.5%	-2.3c	5.9c
Closing scan (1 min before game) + Extra-large edge (15%+)	160	87	54.4%	5.4c	18.8c
Scheduled scan + Small edge (2-4%)	232	126	54.3%	-3.1c	-0.9c
Confidence not scored yet + Steam move detected (sharp money)	1803	975	54.1%	2.1c	4.1c
scan: 6am + Small edge (2-4%)	1486	801	53.9%	-2.7c	-3.3c
scan: injury-alert + Small edge (2-4%)	1997	1075	53.8%	-0.8c	-1.9c
10 AM scan + Extra-large edge (15%+)	314	169	53.8%	15.6c	21.5c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Medium edge (4-8%)	1714	922	53.8%	-2.0c	5.9c
scan: manual + Small edge (2-4%)	1323	708	53.5%	-3.8c	-3.2c
scan: injury-alert + Large edge (8-15%)	513	273	53.2%	3.4c	11.2c
2 PM scan + Large edge (8-15%)	454	241	53.1%	-3.3c	10.7c
10 AM scan + Small edge (2-4%)	1867	990	53.0%	-2.4c	-2.2c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Small edge (2-4%)	8306	4386	52.8%	-3.4c	-2.2c
Closing scan (1 min before game) + Small edge (2-4%)	2223	1170	52.6%	-1.8c	-0.4c
2 PM scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	462	243	52.6%	-4.5c	5.9c
scan: 12pm + Small edge (2-4%)	424	223	52.6%	-5.3c	-0.6c
scan: 12pm + Large edge (8-15%)	200	105	52.5%	-1.5c	11.2c
2 PM scan + Small edge (2-4%)	1727	905	52.4%	-3.1c	-1.4c
scan: injury-alert + Medium edge (4-8%)	441	231	52.4%	0.0c	5.9c
Confidence not scored yet + Small edge (2-4%)	5040	2627	52.1%	-3.0c	-2.2c
scan: sigma-test + Medium edge (4-8%)	48	25	52.1%	-5.6c	5.8c
scan: recovery + Small edge (2-4%)	104	54	51.9%	-3.8c	-0.5c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + No steam move	9967	5157	51.7%	-1.2c	2.6c
scan: recovery + Medium edge (4-8%)	33	17	51.5%	4.7c	6.2c
Totals (over/under) market + Extra-large edge (15%+)	576	295	51.2%	13.7c	19.6c
Pre-game scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	280	143	51.1%	-7.9c	5.9c
Moneyline market + Medium edge (4-8%)	47	24	51.1%	5.7c	6.4c
mkt: teamTotal + Small edge (2-4%)	5123	2578	50.3%	-9.3c	-5.9c
scan: sigma-test + Small edge (2-4%)	359	180	50.1%	-3.9c	-2.0c
scan: recovery + Large edge (8-15%)	34	17	50.0%	-4.1c	10.4c
Confidence not scored yet + No steam move	5850	2902	49.6%	-3.3c	2.2c
mkt: teamTotal + Medium edge (4-8%)	777	384	49.4%	-5.3c	6.1c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + mkt: teamTotal	4519	2229	49.3%	-7.9c	-0.1c
Confidence not scored yet + mkt: teamTotal	2976	1464	49.2%	-7.6c	-0.2c
Confidence not scored yet + Medium edge (4-8%)	943	461	48.9%	-4.0c	5.9c
scan: 12pm + Medium edge (4-8%)	156	76	48.7%	-3.1c	5.8c
scan: sp-test + Small edge (2-4%)	329	160	48.6%	-6.9c	-2.4c
scan: ml-fix + Small edge (2-4%)	303	146	48.2%	-5.6c	-2.3c
Pre-game scan + Small edge (2-4%)	1225	589	48.1%	-7.9c	-1.7c
Confidence not scored yet + Extra-large edge (15%+)	802	383	47.8%	6.9c	20.4c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Extra-large edge (15%+)	1336	638	47.8%	8.1c	20.1c
Scheduled scan + Extra-large edge (15%+)	21	10	47.6%	6.4c	18.2c
scan: 6am + Extra-large edge (15%+)	244	116	47.5%	10.3c	19.8c
scan: manual + Medium edge (4-8%)	173	82	47.4%	-7.5c	5.9c
Spread market + Extra-large edge (15%+)	689	326	47.3%	9.6c	21.3c
Spread market + Large edge (8-15%)	674	317	47.0%	1.9c	11.2c
mkt: teamTotal + Extra-large edge (15%+)	785	368	46.9%	1.2c	19.7c
Confidence not scored yet + Large edge (8-15%)	868	406	46.8%	-2.2c	11.0c
scan: recovery + Extra-large edge (15%+)	26	12	46.2%	0.2c	19.8c
scan: sp-test2 + Small edge (2-4%)	306	140	45.8%	-7.7c	-2.2c
mkt: teamTotal + Large edge (8-15%)	810	363	44.8%	-9.1c	11.2c

Alpha Decay — Is the Edge Fading? (Last 16 Weeks)

Weekly ROI per strategy. Declining ROI = strategy crowding out. Each row is one ISO week.

Strategy	Week	N	Win %	ROI	Avg Edge
implied::teamTotal	2026-W19	180	52.8%	-12.3%	6.6c
	2026-W18	295	60.0%	-2.6%	4.9c
	2026-W17	646	50.6%	-9.9%	6.9c
	2026-W16	835	43.7%	-27.1%	1.7c
	2026-W15	774	52.2%	-2.6%	-0.2c
	2026-W14	3407	50.8%	-12.0%	-2.0c
	2026-W13	1358	43.7%	-21.2%	-2.0c

shin::ml	2026-W19	18	94.4%	204.2%	2.7c
	2026-W18	14	85.7%	20.3%	4.7c
	2026-W17	66	51.5%	14.7%	4.0c
	2026-W16	82	59.8%	-0.1%	3.5c
	2026-W15	64	71.9%	74.2%	3.9c
	2026-W14	392	61.5%	4.0%	4.0c
	2026-W13	104	74.0%	21.2%	0.0c
	2026-W12	16	37.5%	-30.3%	2.7c

shin::spread	2026-W19	221	51.1%	23.1%	13.5c
	2026-W18	292	35.6%	-13.5%	4.2c
	2026-W17	413	44.8%	-4.9%	8.2c
	2026-W16	557	59.2%	34.8%	5.4c
	2026-W15	529	44.8%	-0.2%	6.2c
	2026-W14	2620	39.5%	6.3%	3.7c
	2026-W13	969	30.9%	-18.2%	3.4c
	2026-W12	227	44.9%	-18.1%	4.0c

shin::total	2026-W19	122	84.4%	72.7%	5.1c
	2026-W18	152	59.9%	10.6%	5.9c
	2026-W17	395	53.4%	-7.0%	7.5c
	2026-W16	608	56.7%	-4.9%	3.7c
	2026-W15	547	68.7%	30.6%	4.4c
	2026-W14	2909	62.8%	4.2%	3.8c
	2026-W13	1878	64.9%	-3.3%	3.7c
	2026-W12	189	52.9%	-1.0%	5.5c

Odds-as-Features — Which Numbers Predict Wins?

Point-biserial correlation between each edge feature and win/loss. Higher |r| = more predictive. Positive r = higher value → more wins.

#	Feature	N	Mean (Win)	Mean (Loss)	Correlation	\|r\|
1	Execution Price	20636	0.5925	0.4437	0.3111	0.3111
2	Exec Price (No)	20636	0.5620	0.5990	-0.0767	0.0767
3	Model Prob (Yes)	20636	0.4855	0.4446	0.0765	0.0765
4	Model Prob (No)	20636	0.5145	0.5554	-0.0765	0.0765
5	Net Edge (Yes)	20636	-0.0633	-0.0844	0.0629	0.0629
6	Spread (cents)	20521	10.0579	11.8112	-0.0605	0.0605
7	Pinnacle Move	7189	1.5988	2.0870	-0.0499	0.0499
8	Steam Detected	20636	0.2499	0.2157	0.0404	0.0404
9	Exec Price (Yes)	20636	0.5382	0.5186	0.0380	0.0380
10	Net Edge (No)	20636	-0.0585	-0.0543	-0.0130	0.0130
11	Net Edge	20636	0.0280	0.0268	0.0064	0.0064
12	Steam Magnitude	20636	0.6954	0.6833	0.0031	0.0031
13	Trade Volume	12983	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
14	Taker % (Yes)	12983	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
15	Soft Book Consensus	12983	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
16	Is Longshot	20636	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000

Fill Quality Monitoring — Are We Getting Profiled?

Tracks execution quality over time. Rising slippage or widening spreads may indicate account profiling by market makers.

Period	Sport	Market	N	Avg Spread	Avg Slippage	Fill Rate	Avg Edge	Taker %
2026-W19	nba	total	122	1.5	19.88%	100%	5.13%	0.0%
2026-W19	nba	teamTotal	190	8.5	38.99%	100%	6.16%	0.0%
2026-W19	nba	spread	223	1.5	25.42%	100%	13.38%	0.0%
2026-W19	nba	ml	22	1.2	20.89%	100%	2.57%	0.0%
2026-W18	nba	total	152	2.0	20.82%	100%	5.88%	0.0%
2026-W18	nba	teamTotal	313	10.5	31.74%	100%	4.34%	0.0%
2026-W18	nba	spread	292	2.3	24.31%	100%	4.22%	0.0%
2026-W18	nba	ml	14	1.0	25.64%	100%	4.74%	0.0%
2026-W17	nba	total	398	2.3	14.83%	100%	7.44%	0.0%
2026-W17	nba	teamTotal	705	11.3	25.28%	100%	6.19%	0.0%
2026-W17	nba	spread	416	2.4	24.12%	100%	8.20%	0.0%
2026-W17	nba	ml	66	1.1	19.13%	100%	3.99%	0.0%
2026-W16	nba	total	609	3.3	14.44%	100%	3.72%	0.0%
2026-W16	nba	teamTotal	981	22.4	28.28%	100%	1.14%	0.0%
2026-W16	nba	spread	564	2.8	23.72%	100%	5.31%	0.0%
2026-W16	nba	ml	82	1.8	20.69%	100%	3.48%	0.0%
2026-W15	nba	total	547	4.7	24.79%	100%	4.43%	0.0%
2026-W15	nba	teamTotal	1106	31.8	30.86%	100%	-2.97%	0.0%
2026-W15	nba	spread	541	5.4	24.88%	100%	5.83%	0.0%
2026-W15	nba	ml	64	1.0	19.26%	100%	3.94%	0.0%
2026-W14	nba	total	2916	5.8	21.70%	100%	3.78%	0.0%
2026-W14	nba	teamTotal	4486	29.7	29.97%	100%	-4.20%	0.0%
2026-W14	nba	spread	2666	5.0	18.03%	100%	3.56%	0.0%
2026-W14	nba	ml	392	1.1	25.91%	100%	3.97%	0.0%
2026-W13	nba	total	1878	3.0	19.00%	100%	3.74%	0.0%
2026-W13	nba	teamTotal	1838	33.1	27.55%	100%	-4.41%	0.0%
2026-W13	nba	spread	978	5.6	19.19%	100%	3.31%	0.0%
2026-W13	nba	ml	104	1.1	22.06%	100%	0.03%	0.0%
2026-W12	nba	total	193	2.6	24.84%	39%	5.43%	0.0%
2026-W12	nba	spread	240	4.4	33.65%	53%	4.09%	0.0%
2026-W12	nba	ml	16	1.0	10.97%	50%	2.71%	0.0%

Granger Causality — Does X Predict Y?

Tests if lagged values of one series help predict another. Significant (p<0.05) means X Granger-causes Y — useful for timing entries.

X (Cause)	Y (Effect)	Lag	F-Stat	p-value	Direction	Significant?	N
edge_net_edge	outcome	1	51.156	<0.001	negative	YES	39127
edge_spread_cents	outcome	1	39.222	<0.001	positive	YES	39127
edge_steam_magnitude	outcome	1	2.476	0.1156	positive	no	39127

Data Viewer: edge-scanner-nba-ml

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