edge-scanner-nba | Data Viewer

id ▼	scan type ▼	detected at ▼	game id ▼	team code ▼	Kalshi Line ▼	rung ▼	yes exec price ▼	no exec price ▼	spread cents ▼	PIN Anchor ▼	PIN Yes Prob ▼	PIN No Prob ▼	PIN Yes Edge ▼	PIN No Edge ▼	PIN Best Side ▼	confidence ▼	executable ▼	actual outcome ▼	settled at ▼	sub market ▼	is tie ▼

sports_edge_summary

Error reading table: no such column: detected_at

Edge Scanner Summary

YES Pinnacle Calibration (by Time Window)

Bucket	8AM Scan									10AM Scan									2PM Scan									Pre-Game									Closing									Early vs Close
	All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled Δ			With Edge Δ
	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Edge Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
95-100%	47	97.9%	+0.4	47	97.9%	47L	25.2%	+22.80c	+31.1%	44	93.2%	-4.3	40	95.0%	28L	23.0%	+17.92c	+23.8%	54	92.6%	-4.9	53	92.5%	52L	20.6%	+13.64c	+17.6%	31	93.5%	-4.0	31	93.5%	31L	21.6%	+15.44c	+20.2%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
90-95%	62	82.3%	-10.2	58	84.5%	58L	11.2%	+3.09c	+3.8%	72	83.3%	-9.2	62	85.5%	59L	10.6%	+3.59c	+4.4%	86	76.7%	-15.8	77	74.0%	70L	11.0%	-7.43c	-9.2%	62	82.3%	-10.2	58	84.5%	58L	10.2%	+2.25c	+2.8%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
85-90%	133	83.5%	-4.0	100	81.0%	100L	7.7%	+1.23c	+1.6%	140	82.1%	-5.4	94	81.9%	80L	7.6%	+2.04c	+2.6%	148	81.1%	-6.4	114	78.1%	106L	8.1%	-1.40c	-1.8%	96	75.0%	-12.5	72	75.0%	72L	7.9%	-4.58c	-5.8%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
80-85%	136	84.6%	+2.1	84	78.6%	84L	7.2%	+3.18c	+4.3%	137	83.2%	+0.7	72	80.6%	68L	7.1%	+4.98c	+6.7%	147	76.9%	-5.6	97	73.2%	89L	7.6%	-1.81c	-2.5%	105	68.6%	-13.9	73	63.0%	73L	6.6%	-12.79c	-17.1%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
75-80%	139	75.5%	-2.0	64	70.3%	64L	8.0%	+0.78c	+1.1%	139	76.3%	-1.2	60	68.3%	51L	8.0%	-1.34c	-2.0%	162	72.8%	-4.7	81	63.0%	74L	7.3%	-7.20c	-10.5%	91	71.4%	-6.1	56	67.9%	56L	7.4%	-2.51c	-3.6%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
70-75%	150	74.7%	+2.2	62	56.5%	62L	6.2%	-9.58c	-14.8%	153	73.9%	+1.4	66	63.6%	55L	7.3%	-1.26c	-2.0%	151	74.8%	+2.3	77	62.3%	71L	7.4%	-2.63c	-4.1%	109	66.1%	-6.4	62	51.6%	62L	6.2%	-14.49c	-22.3%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
65-70%	151	70.9%	+3.4	56	60.7%	56L	7.5%	+0.60c	+1.0%	143	72.7%	+5.2	49	51.0%	36L	7.7%	-8.67c	-14.9%	149	67.1%	-0.4	63	47.6%	58L	7.9%	-11.73c	-20.2%	106	67.9%	+0.4	51	62.7%	51L	5.8%	+1.00c	+1.7%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
60-65%	139	66.9%	+4.4	54	51.9%	54L	5.8%	-4.44c	-8.1%	146	66.4%	+3.9	53	50.9%	48L	7.9%	-3.47c	-6.6%	131	62.6%	+0.1	61	47.5%	56L	7.8%	-7.10c	-13.4%	93	61.3%	-1.2	45	46.7%	45L	5.6%	-10.14c	-18.3%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
55-60%	144	54.9%	-2.6	49	40.8%	49L	7.2%	-9.05c	-18.7%	156	56.4%	-1.1	50	42.0%	43L	6.7%	-8.24c	-16.9%	156	59.0%	+1.5	60	48.3%	55L	4.8%	-3.79c	-7.5%	93	48.4%	-9.1	40	37.5%	40L	5.5%	-14.31c	-28.3%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
50-55%	147	66.0%	+13.5	32	56.3%	32L	9.1%	+12.65c	+30.6%	148	64.9%	+12.4	38	57.9%	33L	8.8%	+14.15c	+34.2%	145	61.4%	+8.9	39	33.3%	39L	8.6%	-9.64c	-23.2%	101	61.4%	+8.9	23	43.5%	23L	5.2%	-2.87c	-6.4%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
45-50%	138	49.3%	+1.8	30	33.3%	30L	11.4%	-2.48c	-7.2%	145	48.3%	+0.8	34	29.4%	29L	13.0%	-4.42c	-13.6%	139	51.1%	+3.6	40	32.5%	38L	7.1%	-7.73c	-19.9%	92	42.4%	-5.1	23	26.1%	23L	8.9%	-12.27c	-33.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40-45%	160	50.6%	+8.1	34	32.4%	34L	10.9%	+1.01c	+3.4%	168	53.0%	+10.5	43	34.9%	37L	10.3%	+2.80c	+9.2%	166	46.4%	+3.9	41	29.3%	40L	11.3%	-1.36c	-4.6%	107	45.8%	+3.3	21	38.1%	21L	10.5%	+6.32c	+21.1%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35-40%	152	44.1%	+6.6	36	38.9%	36L	9.9%	+11.01c	+42.4%	157	43.9%	+6.4	45	33.3%	40L	9.3%	+5.35c	+20.3%	154	39.0%	+1.5	38	31.6%	37L	9.5%	+3.63c	+13.8%	92	38.0%	+0.5	18	22.2%	18L	6.0%	-8.95c	-29.8%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30-35%	172	38.4%	+5.9	35	17.1%	35L	8.2%	-6.64c	-29.0%	184	37.5%	+5.0	40	22.5%	32L	8.4%	-1.53c	-6.7%	190	32.6%	+0.1	43	16.3%	41L	8.4%	-7.31c	-32.1%	114	35.1%	+2.6	28	28.6%	28L	7.0%	+2.83c	+11.7%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25-30%	180	32.8%	+5.3	43	23.3%	43L	4.8%	+0.90c	+4.3%	170	33.5%	+6.0	46	23.9%	44L	5.5%	+2.28c	+11.2%	176	27.3%	-0.2	39	15.4%	37L	6.7%	-4.48c	-23.6%	112	26.8%	-0.7	26	15.4%	26L	4.4%	-6.90c	-32.3%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20-25%	186	27.4%	+4.9	47	17.0%	47L	3.6%	-1.41c	-8.1%	200	29.0%	+6.5	47	14.9%	43L	4.2%	-2.73c	-16.3%	208	27.9%	+5.4	50	12.0%	47L	4.4%	-5.54c	-32.9%	122	20.5%	-2.0	28	14.3%	28L	3.4%	-4.29c	-24.2%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	186	28.0%	+10.5	36	16.7%	36L	2.3%	+1.62c	+11.5%	191	26.2%	+8.7	41	14.6%	33L	2.5%	+0.00c	+0.0%	202	23.3%	+5.8	39	5.1%	36L	3.3%	-8.46c	-63.7%	121	23.1%	+5.6	23	8.7%	23L	2.5%	-5.81c	-41.5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-15%	129	24.8%	+12.3	9	11.1%	9L	1.2%	-1.68c	-13.8%	146	22.6%	+10.1	15	6.7%	13L	1.7%	-4.68c	-42.8%	150	19.3%	+6.8	13	15.4%	11L	1.7%	+3.44c	+31.3%	82	25.6%	+13.1	7	14.3%	7L	1.2%	+1.55c	+13.1%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5-10%	60	21.7%	+14.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	87	16.1%	+8.6	5	0.0%	5L	1.1%	-6.00c	-100.0%	85	18.8%	+11.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	36	22.2%	+14.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
0-5%	137	13.1%	+10.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	145	13.8%	+11.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	135	17.0%	+14.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	77	18.2%	+15.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

NO Pinnacle Calibration (by Time Window)

Bucket	8AM Scan									10AM Scan									2PM Scan									Pre-Game									Closing									Early vs Close
	All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled Δ			With Edge Δ
	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Edge Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
95-100%	115	85.2%	-12.3	115	85.2%	115L	18.5%	+3.93c	+4.9%	125	84.8%	-12.7	125	84.8%	101L	18.1%	+3.30c	+4.1%	119	80.7%	-16.8	119	80.7%	119L	17.9%	-0.87c	-1.1%	68	80.9%	-16.6	67	80.6%	67L	18.3%	-0.98c	-1.2%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
90-95%	59	78.0%	-14.5	51	74.5%	51L	11.0%	-7.05c	-8.7%	88	84.1%	-8.4	68	79.4%	58L	13.3%	+0.15c	+0.2%	86	81.4%	-11.1	76	78.9%	73L	11.9%	-1.71c	-2.1%	36	77.8%	-14.7	33	75.8%	33L	9.9%	-6.84c	-8.4%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
85-90%	129	75.2%	-12.3	83	72.3%	83L	8.4%	-6.56c	-8.4%	147	77.6%	-9.9	95	75.8%	82L	9.7%	-1.91c	-2.5%	149	80.5%	-7.0	105	77.1%	98L	7.4%	-2.83c	-3.6%	82	74.4%	-13.1	60	71.7%	60L	10.1%	-5.73c	-7.5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
80-85%	186	72.0%	-10.5	89	69.7%	89L	7.4%	-5.42c	-7.3%	189	73.5%	-9.0	89	68.5%	78L	9.2%	-4.79c	-6.6%	202	76.7%	-5.8	109	70.6%	104L	7.3%	-4.82c	-6.5%	121	76.9%	-5.6	65	69.2%	65L	7.8%	-5.31c	-7.2%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
75-80%	186	72.6%	-4.9	75	61.3%	75L	8.1%	-8.05c	-11.8%	200	71.0%	-6.5	81	58.0%	75L	9.2%	-9.92c	-14.9%	208	72.1%	-5.4	107	63.6%	101L	7.9%	-5.92c	-8.7%	122	79.5%	+2.0	54	72.2%	54L	5.6%	+0.46c	+0.6%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
70-75%	180	67.2%	-5.3	63	60.3%	63L	5.8%	-6.33c	-9.7%	170	66.5%	-6.0	56	53.6%	50L	7.6%	-10.93c	-17.3%	176	72.7%	+0.2	80	56.3%	75L	7.8%	-8.22c	-13.0%	112	73.2%	+0.7	51	62.7%	51L	5.6%	-3.96c	-6.1%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
65-70%	172	61.6%	-5.9	53	37.7%	53L	9.0%	-20.01c	-35.3%	184	62.5%	-5.0	58	43.1%	49L	9.0%	-14.89c	-26.2%	190	67.4%	-0.1	70	60.0%	65L	8.6%	+1.00c	+1.8%	114	64.9%	-2.6	40	55.0%	40L	8.8%	-3.68c	-6.4%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
60-65%	153	55.6%	-6.9	35	48.6%	35L	7.9%	-5.81c	-11.0%	157	56.1%	-6.4	41	41.5%	36L	7.6%	-12.84c	-24.2%	154	61.0%	-1.5	45	37.8%	45L	7.9%	-16.03c	-30.5%	92	62.0%	-0.5	31	48.4%	31L	5.0%	-9.26c	-16.5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
55-60%	160	49.4%	-8.1	36	25.0%	36L	12.4%	-19.34c	-44.5%	169	46.7%	-10.8	41	24.4%	37L	12.8%	-19.39c	-45.2%	167	53.3%	-4.2	44	27.3%	42L	10.9%	-18.37c	-41.1%	108	53.7%	-3.8	26	34.6%	26L	11.8%	-10.25c	-23.5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
50-55%	140	50.0%	-2.5	33	30.3%	33L	12.3%	-9.08c	-23.8%	148	51.4%	-1.1	37	27.0%	32L	12.2%	-12.30c	-32.2%	141	48.9%	-3.6	34	29.4%	34L	11.2%	-11.05c	-28.2%	95	56.8%	+4.3	15	33.3%	15L	11.3%	-6.86c	-17.7%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
45-50%	145	35.2%	-12.3	36	5.6%	36L	12.8%	-27.35c	-83.8%	144	35.4%	-12.1	42	9.5%	37L	12.0%	-24.39c	-72.8%	142	38.7%	-8.8	43	14.0%	42L	10.9%	-21.29c	-61.5%	98	38.8%	-8.7	20	5.0%	20L	12.1%	-28.05c	-85.4%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40-45%	144	45.1%	+2.6	27	3.7%	27L	13.6%	-22.86c	-86.6%	156	43.6%	+1.1	35	11.4%	33L	12.6%	-16.75c	-60.5%	156	41.0%	-1.5	42	21.4%	41L	11.3%	-8.44c	-29.2%	92	52.2%	+9.7	17	5.9%	17L	13.2%	-21.14c	-79.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35-40%	139	32.4%	-5.1	34	11.8%	34L	12.4%	-12.20c	-52.2%	146	33.6%	-3.9	39	12.8%	36L	12.6%	-10.91c	-47.3%	131	37.4%	-0.1	38	13.2%	35L	11.9%	-11.35c	-47.6%	93	38.7%	+1.2	22	13.6%	22L	10.7%	-12.43c	-48.8%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30-35%	151	29.1%	-3.4	36	11.1%	36L	10.3%	-10.28c	-49.4%	143	27.3%	-5.2	39	7.7%	38L	9.6%	-14.13c	-66.0%	149	32.9%	+0.4	40	10.0%	39L	9.7%	-11.79c	-55.4%	106	32.1%	-0.4	25	16.0%	25L	9.6%	-6.25c	-29.2%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25-30%	149	25.5%	-2.0	25	4.0%	25L	6.6%	-15.44c	-80.3%	153	26.1%	-1.4	28	3.6%	28L	6.7%	-15.83c	-82.4%	151	25.2%	-2.3	31	6.5%	29L	7.2%	-13.00c	-68.1%	109	33.9%	+6.4	17	0.0%	17L	5.7%	-19.82c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20-25%	139	24.5%	+2.0	15	6.7%	15L	5.1%	-9.91c	-61.2%	139	23.7%	+1.2	22	4.5%	22L	5.2%	-11.94c	-73.6%	162	27.2%	+4.7	28	3.6%	26L	4.8%	-12.99c	-79.4%	91	28.6%	+6.1	10	0.0%	10L	6.2%	-15.40c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	136	15.4%	-2.1	5	0.0%	5L	4.5%	-12.00c	-100.0%	137	16.8%	-0.7	8	0.0%	8L	3.3%	-13.38c	-100.0%	147	23.1%	+5.6	6	0.0%	4L	4.5%	-12.00c	-100.0%	105	31.4%	+13.9	1	0.0%	1L	2.1%	-13.00c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-15%	134	16.4%	+3.9	2	0.0%	2L	0.5%	-11.50c	-100.0%	142	17.6%	+5.1	4	25.0%	4L	1.6%	+13.44c	+134.4%	148	18.9%	+6.4	4	0.0%	2L	3.3%	-8.75c	-100.0%	96	25.0%	+12.5	1	0.0%	1L	0.1%	-11.00c	-100.0%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5-10%	61	18.0%	+10.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	70	17.1%	+9.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	86	23.3%	+15.8	6	0.0%	—	2.3%	-5.00c	-100.0%	62	17.7%	+10.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
0-5%	50	2.0%	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	46	6.5%	+4.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	56	7.1%	+4.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	32	6.3%	+3.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

YES Our Model Calibration (by Time Window)

Bucket	8AM Scan									10AM Scan									2PM Scan									Pre-Game									Closing									Early vs Close
	All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled Δ			With Edge Δ
	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Edge Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
95-100%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
90-95%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
85-90%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
80-85%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
75-80%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
70-75%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
65-70%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
60-65%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
55-60%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
50-55%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
45-50%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40-45%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35-40%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30-35%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25-30%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20-25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-15%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5-10%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
0-5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

NO Our Model Calibration (by Time Window)

Bucket	8AM Scan									10AM Scan									2PM Scan									Pre-Game									Closing									Early vs Close
	All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled			With Edge						All Settled Δ			With Edge Δ
	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Win %	Calibration	Settled	Win %	Confidence	Avg Edge	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	Edge Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
95-100%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
90-95%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
85-90%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
80-85%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
75-80%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
70-75%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
65-70%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
60-65%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
55-60%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
50-55%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
45-50%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40-45%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35-40%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30-35%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25-30%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20-25%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-15%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5-10%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
0-5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Win Rate by Edge Size (by Time Window)

Edge	8AM Scan							10AM Scan							2PM Scan							Pre-Game							Closing							Early vs Close
Edge	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	Confidence	Book Depth	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	—	PnL Δ	ROI Δ	—
0-2%	359	205	57.1%	359L	47952	-0.73c	-1.3%	345	206	59.7%	303L	48026	+4.10c	+7.6%	351	208	59.3%	331L	105186	+2.12c	+3.8%	267	137	51.3%	267L	122384	-6.75c	-11.9%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2-4%	297	192	64.6%	297L	45065	+3.16c	+5.3%	315	182	57.8%	279L	56330	+0.46c	+0.8%	339	201	59.3%	310L	17647	-1.73c	-2.9%	223	128	57.4%	223L	39670	-3.71c	-6.2%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4-6%	162	95	58.6%	162L	24539	+2.27c	+4.1%	187	107	57.2%	166L	19194	+0.50c	+0.9%	225	129	57.3%	211L	39079	+0.61c	+1.1%	146	73	50.0%	146L	29748	-9.61c	-16.4%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
6-8%	144	84	58.3%	144L	28973	+2.51c	+4.6%	178	94	52.8%	160L	9269	-3.88c	-7.0%	231	110	47.6%	208L	32105	-9.75c	-17.3%	130	75	57.7%	130L	50480	-1.45c	-2.5%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8-10%	130	78	60.0%	130L	9609	+4.36c	+8.1%	136	74	54.4%	121L	14901	+1.25c	+2.4%	214	127	59.3%	191L	25515	-0.49c	-0.8%	120	75	62.5%	120L	25071	+0.50c	+0.8%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10-12%	109	61	56.0%	109L	23065	+11.76c	+27.8%	113	66	58.4%	96L	12643	+9.91c	+21.2%	147	68	46.3%	143L	23863	-3.35c	-6.9%	72	36	50.0%	72L	29579	+1.68c	+3.6%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12-15%	128	57	44.5%	128L	22448	+0.17c	+0.4%	144	59	41.0%	129L	21685	-4.02c	-9.2%	160	66	41.3%	156L	18519	-5.71c	-12.5%	68	22	32.4%	68L	6779	-8.22c	-20.8%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15-20%	167	94	56.3%	167L	78712	+16.14c	+42.8%	179	97	54.2%	152L	53863	+14.15c	+37.5%	192	82	42.7%	191L	34991	-0.12c	-0.3%	94	25	26.6%	94L	31069	-9.39c	-26.9%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20%+	219	108	49.3%	219L	51116	+7.39c	+18.5%	233	127	54.5%	195L	71265	+13.48c	+34.7%	211	92	43.6%	208L	37033	+1.07c	+2.6%	130	43	33.1%	130L	64312	-5.96c	-15.8%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

YES vs NO Performance (by Time Window)

Side	8AM Scan					10AM Scan					2PM Scan					Pre-Game					Closing					Early vs Close
Side	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Settled	Wins	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI
YES (Buy Yes)	1431	791	55.3%	+2.11c	+4.1%	1467	780	53.2%	+1.08c	+2.1%	1489	733	49.2%	-4.04c	-7.8%	993	453	45.6%	-9.74c	-18.0%	—	—	—	—	—	10610	5448	51.3%	-0.83c	-1.6%
NO (Buy No)	1320	755	57.2%	+1.53c	+2.8%	1406	767	54.6%	-0.38c	-0.7%	1447	776	53.6%	-2.10c	-3.9%	850	425	50.0%	-5.48c	-10.1%	—	—	—	—	—	10026	5296	52.8%	-2.29c	-4.3%

Confidence Breakdown (3-Signal Test)

Signals: Spread<5c + Trade<15min + 2+ Books Agree. High=3/3, Medium=2/3, Low=0-1/3

Confidence	8AM Scan					10AM Scan					2PM Scan					Pre-Game					Closing					Early vs Close
	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Count	Settled	Win %	PnL/Bet	ROI	Early W%	Close W%	W% Δ	PnL Δ	ROI Δ
HIGH	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
MEDIUM	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
LOW	2751	2751	56.2%	+5045c	+3.5%	2525	2525	54.8%	+2543c	+1.9%	2792	2792	51.1%	-9376c	-6.3%	1843	1843	47.6%	-14337c	-14.3%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Closing Line Value (CLV) — Beat Pinnacle's Close?

If you consistently beat the closing line, you have an edge. Need 2000+ wagers for significance.

Scan	Edges w/ CLV	Beat Close	Beat %
10am	1886	673	35.7%
12pm	510	236	46.3%
2pm	1839	605	32.9%
6am	1376	570	41.4%
8am	1850	613	33.1%
injury-alert	2065	888	43.0%
manual	983	339	34.5%
ml-fix	232	81	34.9%
pregame	1261	376	29.8%
sigma-test	255	66	25.9%
sp-test	249	70	28.1%
sp-test2	242	74	30.6%

Dynamic Model Weights — Which De-Vig Methods Win?

Rolling performance per de-vig method. Weight = blend of win rate + ROI (1.0 = average, >1.5 = strong, <0.5 = weak).

Method	Sport	Market	Window	N	Win %	ROI	Avg Edge	Weight
shin	nba	ml	14d	74	68.9%	35.7%	5.1c	1.37
shin	nba	ml	30d	228	64.9%	28.3%	3.5c	1.29
shin	nba	ml	60d	740	64.3%	14.3%	3.3c	1.21
shin	nba	ml	90d	740	64.3%	14.3%	3.3c	1.21
shin	nba	total	30d	1696	62.4%	10.2%	5.0c	1.18
shin	nba	total	60d	6800	62.8%	3.3%	4.2c	1.14
shin	nba	total	90d	6800	62.8%	3.3%	4.2c	1.14
shin	nba	total	14d	513	58.9%	10.3%	7.2c	1.14
shin	nba	spread	30d	1867	49.3%	12.3%	7.0c	1.05
implied	nba	teamTotal	14d	855	53.8%	-7.9%	6.2c	1.00
shin	nba	spread	14d	760	44.6%	3.2%	8.5c	0.96
implied	nba	teamTotal	30d	2512	51.0%	-12.1%	3.3c	0.95
shin	nba	spread	60d	5601	41.1%	3.4%	4.8c	0.93
shin	nba	spread	90d	5601	41.1%	3.4%	4.8c	0.93
implied	nba	teamTotal	60d	7495	49.3%	-13.9%	-0.1c	0.92
implied	nba	teamTotal	90d	7495	49.3%	-13.9%	-0.1c	0.92

Meta-Labels — Single Features

Win rate by individual signal. Shows which features predict wins on their own.

Feature	Sample Size	Wins	Win %	Avg PnL/Bet	Avg Edge
Moneyline market	740	476	64.3%	7.8c	3.3c
Scheduled scan	431	272	63.1%	1.1c	3.7c
Totals (over/under) market	6800	4271	62.8%	2.0c	4.2c
8 AM scan	2751	1546	56.2%	1.8c	1.9c
Steam move detected (sharp money)	4819	2685	55.7%	-0.1c	3.7c
10 AM scan	2873	1547	53.8%	0.4c	2.9c
scan: injury-alert	3404	1831	53.8%	1.9c	4.1c
Closing scan (1 min before game)	3264	1755	53.8%	-2.2c	2.8c
scan: 6am	2159	1156	53.5%	0.8c	1.7c
Large edge (8-15%)	2495	1327	53.2%	0.8c	10.9c
Low confidence (0-1 signals)	12983	6867	52.9%	-1.3c	2.8c
Small edge (2-4%)	13346	7013	52.5%	-3.2c	-2.2c
scan: 12pm	913	477	52.2%	-2.1c	6.0c
Medium edge (4-8%)	2657	1383	52.1%	-2.7c	5.9c
2 PM scan	2936	1509	51.4%	-3.1c	3.7c
No steam move	15817	8059	51.0%	-2.0c	2.4c
scan: manual	1836	932	50.8%	-3.6c	1.1c
scan: recovery	197	100	50.8%	-1.9c	5.2c
Confidence not scored yet	7653	3877	50.7%	-2.0c	2.6c
mkt: teamTotal	7495	3693	49.3%	-7.7c	-0.1c
scan: sigma-test	442	214	48.4%	-5.3c	0.3c
Extra-large edge (15%+)	2138	1021	47.8%	7.7c	20.2c
Pre-game scan	1843	878	47.6%	-7.8c	2.3c
scan: sp-test	437	197	45.1%	-8.4c	0.7c

Meta-Labels — Feature Combos

Win rate by 2-feature combinations. The best combos tell you when to bet bigger.

Feature	Sample Size	Wins	Win %	Avg PnL/Bet	Avg Edge
Scheduled scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	86	67	77.9%	6.5c	6.2c
Scheduled scan + Large edge (8-15%)	92	69	75.0%	5.6c	9.9c
Moneyline market + Small edge (2-4%)	535	374	69.9%	7.4c	-0.6c
Confidence not scored yet + Moneyline market	275	183	66.5%	9.7c	3.4c
Moneyline market + Large edge (8-15%)	70	46	65.7%	9.3c	10.9c
Totals (over/under) market + Small edge (2-4%)	4121	2633	63.9%	0.1c	0.1c
Totals (over/under) market + Large edge (8-15%)	941	601	63.9%	7.9c	10.6c
Totals (over/under) market + Medium edge (4-8%)	1162	742	63.9%	-1.9c	5.8c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Totals (over/under) market	4593	2907	63.3%	1.9c	4.2c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Moneyline market	465	293	63.0%	6.8c	3.3c
8 AM scan + Large edge (8-15%)	283	177	62.5%	8.3c	10.9c
Confidence not scored yet + Totals (over/under) market	2207	1364	61.8%	2.1c	4.2c
8 AM scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	309	179	57.9%	2.0c	5.9c
10 AM scan + Large edge (8-15%)	323	187	57.9%	4.3c	11.0c
Pre-game scan + Large edge (8-15%)	212	121	57.1%	-1.8c	10.3c
Closing scan (1 min before game) + Large edge (8-15%)	388	221	57.0%	-2.4c	10.7c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Steam move detected (sharp money)	3016	1710	56.7%	-1.5c	3.5c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Large edge (8-15%)	1627	921	56.6%	2.4c	10.9c
8 AM scan + Extra-large edge (15%+)	263	148	56.3%	17.8c	19.9c
Closing scan (1 min before game) + Medium edge (4-8%)	493	277	56.2%	-6.6c	5.9c
scan: 6am + Medium edge (4-8%)	212	119	56.1%	5.7c	5.9c
scan: injury-alert + Extra-large edge (15%+)	453	252	55.6%	13.7c	20.8c
scan: 6am + Large edge (8-15%)	217	120	55.3%	8.7c	11.4c
8 AM scan + Small edge (2-4%)	1896	1042	55.0%	-1.4c	-2.5c
scan: 12pm + Extra-large edge (15%+)	133	73	54.9%	8.2c	19.4c
10 AM scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	369	201	54.5%	-2.3c	5.9c
Closing scan (1 min before game) + Extra-large edge (15%+)	160	87	54.4%	5.4c	18.8c
Scheduled scan + Small edge (2-4%)	232	126	54.3%	-3.1c	-0.9c
Confidence not scored yet + Steam move detected (sharp money)	1803	975	54.1%	2.1c	4.1c
scan: 6am + Small edge (2-4%)	1486	801	53.9%	-2.7c	-3.3c
scan: injury-alert + Small edge (2-4%)	1997	1075	53.8%	-0.8c	-1.9c
10 AM scan + Extra-large edge (15%+)	314	169	53.8%	15.6c	21.5c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Medium edge (4-8%)	1714	922	53.8%	-2.0c	5.9c
scan: manual + Small edge (2-4%)	1323	708	53.5%	-3.8c	-3.2c
scan: injury-alert + Large edge (8-15%)	513	273	53.2%	3.4c	11.2c
2 PM scan + Large edge (8-15%)	454	241	53.1%	-3.3c	10.7c
10 AM scan + Small edge (2-4%)	1867	990	53.0%	-2.4c	-2.2c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Small edge (2-4%)	8306	4386	52.8%	-3.4c	-2.2c
Closing scan (1 min before game) + Small edge (2-4%)	2223	1170	52.6%	-1.8c	-0.4c
2 PM scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	462	243	52.6%	-4.5c	5.9c
scan: 12pm + Small edge (2-4%)	424	223	52.6%	-5.3c	-0.6c
scan: 12pm + Large edge (8-15%)	200	105	52.5%	-1.5c	11.2c
2 PM scan + Small edge (2-4%)	1727	905	52.4%	-3.1c	-1.4c
scan: injury-alert + Medium edge (4-8%)	441	231	52.4%	0.0c	5.9c
Confidence not scored yet + Small edge (2-4%)	5040	2627	52.1%	-3.0c	-2.2c
scan: sigma-test + Medium edge (4-8%)	48	25	52.1%	-5.6c	5.8c
scan: recovery + Small edge (2-4%)	104	54	51.9%	-3.8c	-0.5c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + No steam move	9967	5157	51.7%	-1.2c	2.6c
scan: recovery + Medium edge (4-8%)	33	17	51.5%	4.7c	6.2c
Totals (over/under) market + Extra-large edge (15%+)	576	295	51.2%	13.7c	19.6c
Pre-game scan + Medium edge (4-8%)	280	143	51.1%	-7.9c	5.9c
Moneyline market + Medium edge (4-8%)	47	24	51.1%	5.7c	6.4c
mkt: teamTotal + Small edge (2-4%)	5123	2578	50.3%	-9.3c	-5.9c
scan: sigma-test + Small edge (2-4%)	359	180	50.1%	-3.9c	-2.0c
scan: recovery + Large edge (8-15%)	34	17	50.0%	-4.1c	10.4c
Confidence not scored yet + No steam move	5850	2902	49.6%	-3.3c	2.2c
mkt: teamTotal + Medium edge (4-8%)	777	384	49.4%	-5.3c	6.1c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + mkt: teamTotal	4519	2229	49.3%	-7.9c	-0.1c
Confidence not scored yet + mkt: teamTotal	2976	1464	49.2%	-7.6c	-0.2c
Confidence not scored yet + Medium edge (4-8%)	943	461	48.9%	-4.0c	5.9c
scan: 12pm + Medium edge (4-8%)	156	76	48.7%	-3.1c	5.8c
scan: sp-test + Small edge (2-4%)	329	160	48.6%	-6.9c	-2.4c
scan: ml-fix + Small edge (2-4%)	303	146	48.2%	-5.6c	-2.3c
Pre-game scan + Small edge (2-4%)	1225	589	48.1%	-7.9c	-1.7c
Confidence not scored yet + Extra-large edge (15%+)	802	383	47.8%	6.9c	20.4c
Low confidence (0-1 signals) + Extra-large edge (15%+)	1336	638	47.8%	8.1c	20.1c
Scheduled scan + Extra-large edge (15%+)	21	10	47.6%	6.4c	18.2c
scan: 6am + Extra-large edge (15%+)	244	116	47.5%	10.3c	19.8c
scan: manual + Medium edge (4-8%)	173	82	47.4%	-7.5c	5.9c
Spread market + Extra-large edge (15%+)	689	326	47.3%	9.6c	21.3c
Spread market + Large edge (8-15%)	674	317	47.0%	1.9c	11.2c
mkt: teamTotal + Extra-large edge (15%+)	785	368	46.9%	1.2c	19.7c
Confidence not scored yet + Large edge (8-15%)	868	406	46.8%	-2.2c	11.0c
scan: recovery + Extra-large edge (15%+)	26	12	46.2%	0.2c	19.8c
scan: sp-test2 + Small edge (2-4%)	306	140	45.8%	-7.7c	-2.2c
mkt: teamTotal + Large edge (8-15%)	810	363	44.8%	-9.1c	11.2c

Alpha Decay — Is the Edge Fading? (Last 16 Weeks)

Weekly ROI per strategy. Declining ROI = strategy crowding out. Each row is one ISO week.

Strategy	Week	N	Win %	ROI	Avg Edge
implied::teamTotal	2026-W19	180	52.8%	-12.3%	6.6c
	2026-W18	295	60.0%	-2.6%	4.9c
	2026-W17	646	50.6%	-9.9%	6.9c
	2026-W16	835	43.7%	-27.1%	1.7c
	2026-W15	774	52.2%	-2.6%	-0.2c
	2026-W14	3407	50.8%	-12.0%	-2.0c
	2026-W13	1358	43.7%	-21.2%	-2.0c

shin::ml	2026-W19	18	94.4%	204.2%	2.7c
	2026-W18	14	85.7%	20.3%	4.7c
	2026-W17	66	51.5%	14.7%	4.0c
	2026-W16	82	59.8%	-0.1%	3.5c
	2026-W15	64	71.9%	74.2%	3.9c
	2026-W14	392	61.5%	4.0%	4.0c
	2026-W13	104	74.0%	21.2%	0.0c
	2026-W12	16	37.5%	-30.3%	2.7c

shin::spread	2026-W19	221	51.1%	23.1%	13.5c
	2026-W18	292	35.6%	-13.5%	4.2c
	2026-W17	413	44.8%	-4.9%	8.2c
	2026-W16	557	59.2%	34.8%	5.4c
	2026-W15	529	44.8%	-0.2%	6.2c
	2026-W14	2620	39.5%	6.3%	3.7c
	2026-W13	969	30.9%	-18.2%	3.4c
	2026-W12	227	44.9%	-18.1%	4.0c

shin::total	2026-W19	122	84.4%	72.7%	5.1c
	2026-W18	152	59.9%	10.6%	5.9c
	2026-W17	395	53.4%	-7.0%	7.5c
	2026-W16	608	56.7%	-4.9%	3.7c
	2026-W15	547	68.7%	30.6%	4.4c
	2026-W14	2909	62.8%	4.2%	3.8c
	2026-W13	1878	64.9%	-3.3%	3.7c
	2026-W12	189	52.9%	-1.0%	5.5c

Odds-as-Features — Which Numbers Predict Wins?

Point-biserial correlation between each edge feature and win/loss. Higher |r| = more predictive. Positive r = higher value → more wins.

#	Feature	N	Mean (Win)	Mean (Loss)	Correlation	\|r\|
1	Execution Price	20636	0.5925	0.4437	0.3111	0.3111
2	Exec Price (No)	20636	0.5620	0.5990	-0.0767	0.0767
3	Model Prob (Yes)	20636	0.4855	0.4446	0.0765	0.0765
4	Model Prob (No)	20636	0.5145	0.5554	-0.0765	0.0765
5	Net Edge (Yes)	20636	-0.0633	-0.0844	0.0629	0.0629
6	Spread (cents)	20521	10.0579	11.8112	-0.0605	0.0605
7	Pinnacle Move	7189	1.5988	2.0870	-0.0499	0.0499
8	Steam Detected	20636	0.2499	0.2157	0.0404	0.0404
9	Exec Price (Yes)	20636	0.5382	0.5186	0.0380	0.0380
10	Net Edge (No)	20636	-0.0585	-0.0543	-0.0130	0.0130
11	Net Edge	20636	0.0280	0.0268	0.0064	0.0064
12	Steam Magnitude	20636	0.6954	0.6833	0.0031	0.0031
13	Trade Volume	12983	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
14	Taker % (Yes)	12983	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
15	Soft Book Consensus	12983	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000
16	Is Longshot	20636	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000

Fill Quality Monitoring — Are We Getting Profiled?

Tracks execution quality over time. Rising slippage or widening spreads may indicate account profiling by market makers.

Period	Sport	Market	N	Avg Spread	Avg Slippage	Fill Rate	Avg Edge	Taker %
2026-W19	nba	total	122	1.5	19.88%	100%	5.13%	0.0%
2026-W19	nba	teamTotal	190	8.5	38.99%	100%	6.16%	0.0%
2026-W19	nba	spread	223	1.5	25.42%	100%	13.38%	0.0%
2026-W19	nba	ml	22	1.2	20.89%	100%	2.57%	0.0%
2026-W18	nba	total	152	2.0	20.82%	100%	5.88%	0.0%
2026-W18	nba	teamTotal	313	10.5	31.74%	100%	4.34%	0.0%
2026-W18	nba	spread	292	2.3	24.31%	100%	4.22%	0.0%
2026-W18	nba	ml	14	1.0	25.64%	100%	4.74%	0.0%
2026-W17	nba	total	398	2.3	14.83%	100%	7.44%	0.0%
2026-W17	nba	teamTotal	705	11.3	25.28%	100%	6.19%	0.0%
2026-W17	nba	spread	416	2.4	24.12%	100%	8.20%	0.0%
2026-W17	nba	ml	66	1.1	19.13%	100%	3.99%	0.0%
2026-W16	nba	total	609	3.3	14.44%	100%	3.72%	0.0%
2026-W16	nba	teamTotal	981	22.4	28.28%	100%	1.14%	0.0%
2026-W16	nba	spread	564	2.8	23.72%	100%	5.31%	0.0%
2026-W16	nba	ml	82	1.8	20.69%	100%	3.48%	0.0%
2026-W15	nba	total	547	4.7	24.79%	100%	4.43%	0.0%
2026-W15	nba	teamTotal	1106	31.8	30.86%	100%	-2.97%	0.0%
2026-W15	nba	spread	541	5.4	24.88%	100%	5.83%	0.0%
2026-W15	nba	ml	64	1.0	19.26%	100%	3.94%	0.0%
2026-W14	nba	total	2916	5.8	21.70%	100%	3.78%	0.0%
2026-W14	nba	teamTotal	4486	29.7	29.97%	100%	-4.20%	0.0%
2026-W14	nba	spread	2666	5.0	18.03%	100%	3.56%	0.0%
2026-W14	nba	ml	392	1.1	25.91%	100%	3.97%	0.0%
2026-W13	nba	total	1878	3.0	19.00%	100%	3.74%	0.0%
2026-W13	nba	teamTotal	1838	33.1	27.55%	100%	-4.41%	0.0%
2026-W13	nba	spread	978	5.6	19.19%	100%	3.31%	0.0%
2026-W13	nba	ml	104	1.1	22.06%	100%	0.03%	0.0%
2026-W12	nba	total	193	2.6	24.84%	39%	5.43%	0.0%
2026-W12	nba	spread	240	4.4	33.65%	53%	4.09%	0.0%
2026-W12	nba	ml	16	1.0	10.97%	50%	2.71%	0.0%

Granger Causality — Does X Predict Y?

Tests if lagged values of one series help predict another. Significant (p<0.05) means X Granger-causes Y — useful for timing entries.

X (Cause)	Y (Effect)	Lag	F-Stat	p-value	Direction	Significant?	N
edge_net_edge	outcome	1	51.156	<0.001	negative	YES	39127
edge_spread_cents	outcome	1	39.222	<0.001	positive	YES	39127
edge_steam_magnitude	outcome	1	2.476	0.1156	positive	no	39127

Data Viewer: edge-scanner-nba

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