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CHA @ ORL 2026-04-17T23:30:00Z
Class E MINIMUM
1 DATA & MATCHUP CARD 11AM ✓ Computed
PROJECTIONS (our math)
Home: ORL | Away: CHA
CHA 86.6 — ORL 108.6
Total: 195.2 | Spread: -22.7 | ML: 80.5%
Pace: 96.1 poss | HCA: +0.8 pts
EFFICIENCY RATINGS
Stat ORL CHA Edge
ORtg — — —
DRtg — — —
NetRtg — — —
Pace — — —
Record 0-0 0-0 —
MOV -4.7 4.8 CHA -9.5
Consistency 0.00 17.80 CHA -17.80
Adj 4 Factors 0.36 0.19 ORL +0.17
FOUR FACTORS (offense)
Stat ORL CHA Edge
eFG% 53.1% 55.2% CHA -0.021
TOV% 14.0% 15.7% ORL +0.017
OREB% 30.6% 35.8% CHA -0.052
FTA Rate 0.311 0.244 ORL +0.067
FOUR FACTORS (defense — lower is better)
Stat ORL CHA Edge
Opp eFG% 54.5% 54.0% CHA -0.005
Opp TOV% 14.7% 13.0% ORL +0.017
Opp OREB% 29.0% 27.8% CHA -0.012
Opp FTA Rate 0.285 0.232 CHA -0.053
MATCHUP DELTAS (off vs opp def)
Stat ORL CHA Edge
eFG Delta -0.9 +0.7 CHA -1.6
ORB Delta +2.8 +6.8 CHA -4.0
TOV Delta +1.0 +1.0 0.0
FTR Delta +7.9 -4.1 ORL +12.0
Matchup ORtg 113.0 117.3 CHA -4.3
CLUTCH (last 5 min, margin ≤5)
Stat ORL CHA Edge
Clutch ORtg 107.3 101.8 ORL +5.5
Clutch DRtg 106.0 112.9 ORL +6.9
Clutch NetRtg +1.3 -11.1 ORL +12.4
HUSTLE
Stat ORL CHA Edge
Deflections 16.9 13.8 ORL +3.0
Loose Balls 4.2 4.3 CHA -0.1
Contested 2PT 25.5 28.6 CHA -3.1
Contested 3PT 15.2 15.9 CHA -0.7
Screen Assists 7.2 8.6 CHA -1.4
Charges Drawn 0.3 0.2 +0.0
REST & FATIGUE
Stat ORL CHA Edge
B2B Win% 100.0% 60.0% ORL +0.400
1-Day Rest Win% 51.2% 51.4% CHA -0.002
3+ Day Rest Win% 50.0% 50.0% 0.000
Rest Advantage 1d / fat 10.00 2d / fat 0.00 -0.3 pts
SHOOTING
Stat ORL CHA Edge
FG% 39.7% 46.0% CHA -0.063
3PT% 32.8% 37.8% CHA -0.051
3PT Rate 40.8% 48.7% CHA -0.079
FG3A/game 34.0 43.3 CHA -9.3
OPPONENT STATS (what defense allows)
Stat ORL CHA Edge
Opp PPG 115.1 111.2 CHA -3.9
Opp FG% 47.6% 46.7% CHA -0.009
Opp 3P% 35.3% 35.9% ORL +0.006
Opp TOV 14.9 12.7 ORL +2.2
HOME/AWAY SPLITS
Stat ORL CHA Edge
Home ORtg 115.0 118.0 CHA -3.0
Home DRtg 113.4 114.0 ORL +0.6
Home NetRtg +1.6 +4.0 CHA -2.4
Road ORtg 113.5 118.8 CHA -5.3
Road NetRtg +0.1 +5.9 CHA -5.8
RECENT FORM
Stat ORL CHA Edge
L5 ORtg 115.5 118.0 CHA -2.5
L5 DRtg 105.6 113.8 ORL +8.2
L5 NetRtg +10.0 +4.2 ORL +5.8
L10 ORtg 111.8 120.1 CHA -8.3
L10 NetRtg -0.3 +6.6 CHA -6.9
Sagarin Overall 91.88 94.17 CHA -2.29
Sagarin Predictor 91.61 94.70 CHA -3.09
Sagarin Strong Recent 92.03 97.27 CHA -5.24
Sag Trend (Recent-Pred) +0.42 +2.57 CHA -2.15
DRatings Overall 0.17 0.37 CHA -0.20
DRatings Inference 0.18 0.57 CHA -0.39
DR Trend (Inf-Overall) +0.01 +0.20 CHA -0.19
VARIANCE & BLOWOUTS
Stat ORL CHA Edge
Margin Std Dev 13.0 17.4 CHA -4.4
Skewness 0.01 0.36 —
Kurtosis -4.92 -3.08 —
Blowout Win% 0.0% 31.7% CHA -0.3
Blowout Loss% 28.6% 13.4% CHA -0.2
QUARTER SCORING
Stat ORL CHA Edge
Q1 Avg 0.0 0.0 0.0
Q2 Avg 0.0 0.0 0.0
Q3 Avg 0.0 0.0 0.0
Q4 Avg 0.0 0.0 0.0
Q4 vs Q1 Delta 0.0 0.0 —
2 RESEARCH INTEL 5PM No alerts
✓ No alerts — standard lineups expected
3 BLIND ANALYSIS T-30 3 markets
Market Sonnet Gemini gpt-oss
ML — — —
Spread — — —
Total — — —
4 COMPARISON Classified
Market Sonnet Gemini gpt-oss Math Kalshi Pinnacle Class
ML — — — — — — Class E
Spread — — — — — — Class E
Total — — — — — — Class E
5 OPUS VERDICT Pending

Opus hasn't ruled yet.

6 RESULT Awaiting

Game hasn't finished yet.

GSW @ PHX 2026-04-18T02:00:00Z
Class E MINIMUM
1 DATA & MATCHUP CARD 11AM ✓ Computed
PROJECTIONS (our math)
Home: PHX | Away: GSW
GSW 98.3 — PHX 97.9
Total: 196.3 | Spread: -1.8 | ML: 52.8%
Pace: 96.1 poss | HCA: +2.2 pts
EFFICIENCY RATINGS
Stat PHX GSW Edge
ORtg — — —
DRtg — — —
NetRtg — — —
Pace — — —
Record 0-0 0-0 —
MOV -17.3 -0.6 GSW -16.7
Consistency 0.00 15.00 GSW -15.00
Adj 4 Factors 0.22 0.28 GSW -0.06
FOUR FACTORS (offense)
Stat PHX GSW Edge
eFG% 53.7% 54.9% GSW -0.012
TOV% 14.7% 15.6% PHX +0.009
OREB% 33.1% 30.2% PHX +0.029
FTA Rate 0.225 0.238 GSW -0.013
FOUR FACTORS (defense — lower is better)
Stat PHX GSW Edge
Opp eFG% 54.1% 55.3% PHX +0.012
Opp TOV% 16.5% 15.8% PHX +0.007
Opp OREB% 32.3% 31.6% GSW -0.007
Opp FTA Rate 0.276 0.247 GSW -0.029
MATCHUP DELTAS (off vs opp def)
Stat PHX GSW Edge
eFG Delta -1.6 +0.8 GSW -2.4
ORB Delta +1.5 -2.1 PHX +3.6
TOV Delta -1.1 -0.9 GSW -0.2
FTR Delta -2.2 -3.8 PHX +1.6
Matchup ORtg 113.9 112.0 PHX +1.9
CLUTCH (last 5 min, margin ≤5)
Stat PHX GSW Edge
Clutch ORtg 104.0 115.1 GSW -11.1
Clutch DRtg 112.4 112.5 PHX +0.1
Clutch NetRtg -8.4 +2.7 GSW -11.1
HUSTLE
Stat PHX GSW Edge
Deflections 20.3 19.1 PHX +1.1
Loose Balls 4.6 5.0 GSW -0.3
Contested 2PT 21.1 25.3 GSW -4.2
Contested 3PT 14.0 15.2 GSW -1.2
Screen Assists 8.4 7.5 PHX +0.9
Charges Drawn 0.2 0.6 GSW -0.4
REST & FATIGUE
Stat PHX GSW Edge
B2B Win% 33.3% 40.0% GSW -0.067
1-Day Rest Win% 60.5% 47.2% PHX +0.133
3+ Day Rest Win% 57.1% 20.0% PHX +0.371
Rest Advantage 1d / fat 10.00 0d / fat 30.00 +0.6 pts
SHOOTING
Stat PHX GSW Edge
FG% 44.6% 46.1% GSW -0.015
3PT% 34.0% 35.6% GSW -0.016
3PT Rate 43.5% 49.7% GSW -0.062
FG3A/game 37.5 44.1 GSW -6.6
OPPONENT STATS (what defense allows)
Stat PHX GSW Edge
Opp PPG 111.1 115.2 PHX +4.1
Opp FG% 47.0% 48.0% PHX +0.010
Opp 3P% 34.7% 36.0% PHX +0.013
Opp TOV 16.3 15.9 PHX +0.4
HOME/AWAY SPLITS
Stat PHX GSW Edge
Home ORtg 114.7 116.8 GSW -2.1
Home DRtg 111.1 115.7 PHX +4.6
Home NetRtg +3.6 +1.1 PHX +2.5
Road ORtg 113.8 110.9 PHX +2.9
Road NetRtg -0.8 -2.1 PHX +1.3
RECENT FORM
Stat PHX GSW Edge
L5 ORtg 113.1 116.5 GSW -3.4
L5 DRtg 111.3 121.6 PHX +10.3
L5 NetRtg +1.7 -5.1 PHX +6.8
L10 ORtg 116.4 113.7 PHX +2.7
L10 NetRtg +3.3 -6.3 PHX +9.6
Sagarin Overall 90.56 88.05 PHX +2.51
Sagarin Predictor 90.61 88.25 PHX +2.36
Sagarin Strong Recent 89.88 84.20 PHX +5.68
Sag Trend (Recent-Pred) -0.73 -4.05 PHX +3.32
DRatings Overall 0.12 -0.13 PHX +0.26
DRatings Inference 0.17 -0.23 PHX +0.41
DR Trend (Inf-Overall) +0.05 -0.10 PHX +0.15
VARIANCE & BLOWOUTS
Stat PHX GSW Edge
Margin Std Dev 15.7 14.8 PHX +0.9
Skewness -0.42 0.17 —
Kurtosis -3.07 -3.08 —
Blowout Win% 19.5% 15.8% +0.0
Blowout Loss% 17.1% 14.6% -0.0
2 RESEARCH INTEL 5PM No alerts
✓ No alerts — standard lineups expected
3 BLIND ANALYSIS T-30 3 markets
Market Sonnet Gemini gpt-oss
ML — — —
Spread — — —
Total — — —
4 COMPARISON Classified
Market Sonnet Gemini gpt-oss Math Kalshi Pinnacle Class
ML — — — — — — Class E
Spread — — — — — — Class E
Total — — — — — — Class E
5 OPUS VERDICT Pending

Opus hasn't ruled yet.

6 RESULT Awaiting

Game hasn't finished yet.