MMA Pipeline — 2026-05-08

NYK @ PHI 2026-05-08T23:00:00Z

1 DATA & MATCHUP CARD 11AM ✓ Computed

PROJECTIONS (our math)

Home: PHI | Away: NYK

NYK 113.7 — PHI 79.2

Total: 192.9 | Spread: +35.6 | ML: 9.8%

Pace: 96.1 poss | HCA: -1.1 pts

EFFICIENCY RATINGS
Stat	PHI	NYK	Edge
ORtg	—	—	—
DRtg	—	—	—
NetRtg	—	—	—
Pace	—	—	—
Record	0-0	0-0	—
MOV	-9.9	19.4	NYK -29.3
Consistency	0.00	0.00	0.00
Adj 4 Factors	0.33	0.33	NYK -0.01
FOUR FACTORS (offense)
Stat	PHI	NYK	Edge
eFG%	53.0%	55.7%	NYK -0.027
TOV%	13.4%	13.9%	PHI +0.005
OREB%	30.6%	32.8%	NYK -0.022
FTA Rate	0.275	0.238	PHI +0.037
FOUR FACTORS (defense — lower is better)
Stat	PHI	NYK	Edge
Opp eFG%	54.1%	54.1%	0.000
Opp TOV%	15.2%	14.7%	PHI +0.005
Opp OREB%	32.2%	28.5%	NYK -0.037
Opp FTA Rate	0.270	0.265	NYK -0.005
MATCHUP DELTAS (off vs opp def)
Stat	PHI	NYK	Edge
eFG Delta	-1.1	+1.6	NYK -2.7
ORB Delta	+2.1	+0.6	PHI +1.5
TOV Delta	-1.3	-1.3	0.0
FTR Delta	+1.0	-3.2	PHI +4.2
Matchup ORtg	111.9	118.4	NYK -6.5
CLUTCH (last 5 min, margin ≤5)
Stat	PHI	NYK	Edge
Clutch ORtg	115.2	123.5	NYK -8.3
Clutch DRtg	98.6	103.1	PHI +4.5
Clutch NetRtg	+16.6	+20.5	NYK -3.9
HUSTLE
Stat	PHI	NYK	Edge
Deflections	20.5	17.0	PHI +3.5
Loose Balls	4.7	4.5	PHI +0.3
Contested 2PT	24.6	22.4	PHI +2.3
Contested 3PT	15.6	16.3	NYK -0.7
Screen Assists	7.1	6.8	PHI +0.3
Charges Drawn	0.2	0.6	NYK -0.3
REST & FATIGUE
Stat	PHI	NYK	Edge
B2B Win%	50.0%	66.7%	NYK -0.167
1-Day Rest Win%	51.4%	70.0%	NYK -0.186
3+ Day Rest Win%	75.0%	75.0%	0.000
Rest Advantage	1d / fat 23.04	1d / fat 24.96	+0.1 pts

SHOOTING
Stat	PHI	NYK	Edge
FG%	44.8%	51.7%	NYK -0.070
3PT%	33.8%	40.8%	NYK -0.070
3PT Rate	39.5%	38.4%	PHI +0.012
FG3A/game	32.8	32.1	PHI +0.7
OPPONENT STATS (what defense allows)
Stat	PHI	NYK	Edge
Opp PPG	116.1	110.1	NYK -6.0
Opp FG%	46.7%	46.0%	NYK -0.007
Opp 3P%	35.3%	36.2%	PHI +0.009
Opp TOV	15.4	14.4	PHI +1.0
HOME/AWAY SPLITS
Stat	PHI	NYK	Edge
Home ORtg	113.6	120.8	NYK -7.2
Home DRtg	114.8	110.5	NYK -4.3
Home NetRtg	-1.2	+10.3	NYK -11.5
Road ORtg	115.0	116.4	NYK -1.4
Road NetRtg	+0.9	+2.4	NYK -1.5
RECENT FORM
Stat	PHI	NYK	Edge
L5 ORtg	105.4	120.0	NYK -14.6
L5 DRtg	108.6	108.7	PHI +0.1
L5 NetRtg	-3.2	+11.3	NYK -14.5
L10 ORtg	116.0	119.7	NYK -3.7
L10 NetRtg	+3.4	+2.5	PHI +0.9
Sagarin Overall	90.20	99.32	NYK -9.12
Sagarin Predictor	89.36	99.62	NYK -10.26
Sagarin Strong Recent	90.93	101.62	NYK -10.69
Sag Trend (Recent-Pred)	+1.57	+2.00	NYK -0.43
DRatings Overall	0.08	0.63	NYK -0.55
DRatings Inference	0.08	0.90	NYK -0.83
DR Trend (Inf-Overall)	+0.00	+0.27	NYK -0.27
VARIANCE & BLOWOUTS
Stat	PHI	NYK	Edge
Margin Std Dev	20.9	17.4	PHI +3.6
Skewness	-0.06	0.56	—
Kurtosis	-3.95	-3.97	—
Blowout Win%	9.1%	50.0%	NYK -0.4
Blowout Loss%	36.4%	0.0%	NYK -0.4

2 RESEARCH INTEL 5PM No alerts

3 BLIND ANALYSIS T-30 Pending

4 COMPARISON Pending

5 OPUS VERDICT Pending

6 RESULT Awaiting

SAS @ MIN 2026-05-09T01:30:00Z

1 DATA & MATCHUP CARD 11AM ✓ Computed

PROJECTIONS (our math)

Home: MIN | Away: SAS

SAS 94.3 — MIN 107.1

Total: 201.3 | Spread: -13.3 | ML: 69.6%

Pace: 98.1 poss | HCA: +0.5 pts

EFFICIENCY RATINGS
Stat	MIN	SAS	Edge
ORtg	—	—	—
DRtg	—	—	—
NetRtg	—	—	—
Pace	—	—	—
Record	0-0	0-0	—
MOV	-3.6	12.9	SAS -16.5
Consistency	0.00	0.00	0.00
Adj 4 Factors	0.28	0.32	SAS -0.04
FOUR FACTORS (offense)
Stat	MIN	SAS	Edge
eFG%	55.9%	55.9%	0.000
TOV%	14.5%	13.3%	SAS -0.012
OREB%	30.2%	30.6%	SAS -0.004
FTA Rate	0.285	0.274	MIN +0.011
FOUR FACTORS (defense — lower is better)
Stat	MIN	SAS	Edge
Opp eFG%	52.9%	52.2%	SAS -0.007
Opp TOV%	14.7%	12.8%	MIN +0.019
Opp OREB%	30.9%	27.6%	SAS -0.033
Opp FTA Rate	0.282	0.228	SAS -0.054
MATCHUP DELTAS (off vs opp def)
Stat	MIN	SAS	Edge
eFG Delta	+3.7	+3.0	MIN +0.7
ORB Delta	+2.6	-0.3	MIN +2.9
TOV Delta	+1.7	-1.4	MIN +3.1
FTR Delta	+5.7	-0.8	MIN +6.5
Matchup ORtg	111.3	116.5	SAS -5.2
CLUTCH (last 5 min, margin ≤5)
Stat	MIN	SAS	Edge
Clutch ORtg	108.4	122.6	SAS -14.2
Clutch DRtg	109.5	114.4	MIN +4.9
Clutch NetRtg	-1.2	+8.3	SAS -9.5
HUSTLE
Stat	MIN	SAS	Edge
Deflections	17.0	15.7	MIN +1.3
Loose Balls	4.3	4.1	MIN +0.2
Contested 2PT	27.2	27.6	SAS -0.4
Contested 3PT	15.0	14.8	MIN +0.1
Screen Assists	7.1	8.1	SAS -1.0
Charges Drawn	0.1	0.3	SAS -0.2
REST & FATIGUE
Stat	MIN	SAS	Edge
B2B Win%	42.9%	80.0%	SAS -0.371
1-Day Rest Win%	59.0%	82.5%	SAS -0.235
3+ Day Rest Win%	100.0%	100.0%	0.000
Rest Advantage	0d / fat 61.03	0d / fat 57.21	-0.1 pts

SHOOTING
Stat	MIN	SAS	Edge
FG%	44.3%	48.4%	SAS -0.040
3PT%	33.5%	37.3%	SAS -0.038
3PT Rate	34.4%	37.3%	SAS -0.029
FG3A/game	30.9	31.9	SAS -1.0
OPPONENT STATS (what defense allows)
Stat	MIN	SAS	Edge
Opp PPG	114.6	111.5	SAS -3.1
Opp FG%	46.2%	45.1%	SAS -0.011
Opp 3P%	35.5%	35.2%	SAS -0.003
Opp TOV	15.0	13.0	MIN +2.0
HOME/AWAY SPLITS
Stat	MIN	SAS	Edge
Home ORtg	112.7	120.0	SAS -7.3
Home DRtg	109.0	111.6	MIN +2.6
Home NetRtg	+3.6	+8.4	SAS -4.8
Road ORtg	118.5	117.9	MIN +0.6
Road NetRtg	+2.6	+8.4	SAS -5.8
RECENT FORM
Stat	MIN	SAS	Edge
L5 ORtg	121.6	121.4	MIN +0.2
L5 DRtg	121.3	116.2	SAS -5.1
L5 NetRtg	+0.3	+5.2	SAS -4.9
L10 ORtg	112.3	123.1	SAS -10.8
L10 NetRtg	-0.6	+13.2	SAS -13.8
Sagarin Overall	93.17	100.08	SAS -6.91
Sagarin Predictor	92.94	99.92	SAS -6.98
Sagarin Strong Recent	93.52	102.27	SAS -8.75
Sag Trend (Recent-Pred)	+0.58	+2.35	SAS -1.77
DRatings Overall	0.29	0.89	SAS -0.59
DRatings Inference	0.30	1.13	SAS -0.83
DR Trend (Inf-Overall)	+0.01	+0.25	SAS -0.24
VARIANCE & BLOWOUTS
Stat	MIN	SAS	Edge
Margin Std Dev	17.9	14.2	MIN +3.6
Skewness	-0.78	0.36	—
Kurtosis	-3.80	-3.97	—
Blowout Win%	18.2%	40.0%	SAS -0.2
Blowout Loss%	18.2%	0.0%	SAS -0.2

2 RESEARCH INTEL 5PM 5 alerts

3 BLIND ANALYSIS T-30 Pending

4 COMPARISON Pending

5 OPUS VERDICT Pending

6 RESULT Awaiting