Politics Desk — Data Inventory (Mar 28, 2026)

Status: PARTIALLY COLLECTING — Government data + prediction markets active, gaps in approval and cross-market

ACTIVE DATA

politics_kalshi_prices (research-pipeline.db)

Detail	Value
Rows	5,958
Schedule	Every 30 min
What it gives us	Kalshi political contract prices — the market we trade against

congress_bills (research-pipeline.db)

Detail	Value
Rows	469
Schedule	6:15 AM daily
Source	Congress.gov API
What it gives us	Bill pipeline — status, vote counts, sponsors, readiness scoring for "will bill pass" contracts

executive_actions (research-pipeline.db)

Detail	Value
Rows	44
Schedule	6:30 AM daily
Source	Federal Register API
What it gives us	EOs, proclamations, memoranda — feeds EO count contracts

manifold_predictions (research-pipeline.db)

Detail	Value
Rows	8,833
Source	Manifold API
What it gives us	Prediction market probabilities for cross-validation (weight: 0.20 in consensus)

metaculus_predictions (research-pipeline.db)

Detail	Value
Rows	402
Source	Metaculus API
What it gives us	Forecaster consensus probabilities (weight: 0.25 in consensus)

politics_consensus (research-pipeline.db)

Detail	Value
Rows	18
Schedule	7:15 AM, 1 PM, 7 PM
What it gives us	Weighted ensemble probability — our "true line" for political contracts

NOT COLLECTING (tables missing or empty)

Table	Expected Source	Weight in Consensus	Status
Polymarket politics	Polymarket CLOB API	0.45 (primary anchor)	NOT BUILT — highest priority gap
PredictIt	PredictIt REST API	0.05-0.10	Not built
approval_ratings	RCP + 538 scrape	N/A (data anchor)	0 rows — scraper not running
polls_individual	RCP/538 individual polls	N/A (house effects)	Table doesn't exist
pollster_house_effects	Computed from polls	N/A (Phase 2)	Table doesn't exist
wh_schedule	whitehouse.gov scrape	N/A (lid prediction)	Table doesn't exist
cbp_encounters	CBP monthly data	N/A (border contracts)	Table doesn't exist
external_market_prices	Polymarket + PredictIt	Primary anchor	Table doesn't exist
prediction_kalshi_map	Manual curation	Cross-market mapping	Table doesn't exist
gdelt_events	GDELT 2.0 feed	Geopolitical signal	Table doesn't exist
marad_alerts	MARAD maritime	Phase 3 geopolitical	Table doesn't exist

CRITICAL GAPS

Polymarket not connected — This is the primary sharp anchor (0.45 weight). Without it, consensus is missing its biggest input. Free API, no auth.
Approval ratings empty — RCP/538 scrapers not running. These are the direct data anchors for the highest-volume recurring contracts.
No cross-market mapping — Kalshi series not mapped to Polymarket/Manifold/Metaculus equivalents. Consensus can't compute without this.

CODE FILES ON VPS

File	Function	Status
scrape-politics-kalshi.ts	Kalshi political contract prices	Running every 30 min
politics-series.ts	Dynamic series discovery	Running
scrape-polymarket.ts	Polymarket scraper	Built, not wired for politics
scrape-predictit.ts	PredictIt scraper	Built, not running
scrape-congress.ts	Congress.gov API scraper	Running daily
scrape-approval-ratings.ts	RCP/538 approval scraper	Built, not producing data
scrape-manifold.ts	Manifold predictions	Running
scrape-metaculus.ts	Metaculus predictions	Running
politics-consensus.ts	Weighted ensemble computation	Running 3x daily
backfill-polymarket.ts	Historical Polymarket data	Built, not run

COLLECTION SCHEDULE (from cron)

Time (ET)	Job	Status
Every 30 min	Kalshi politics prices	Running
6:00 AM	Approval ratings (RCP + 538)	Not producing data
6:15 AM	Congress.gov bills	Running
6:30 AM	Federal Register EOs	Running
Every 30 min	Polymarket politics	NOT RUNNING
Every 30 min	PredictIt	NOT RUNNING
7:15 AM, 1 PM, 7 PM	Politics consensus	Running (incomplete without Polymarket)

BUILD PRIORITY (from panel ruling)

Phase	Days	What
Phase 1	1-5	Polymarket + PredictIt scrapers, approval fix, manual Kalshi mapping, consensus + Telegram alert
Phase 2	6-14	WH schedule, CBP encounters, approval momentum model, EO frequency model
Phase 3	15-30	GDELT events, MARAD alerts, pollster house effects, Truth Social tracker
Phase 4	Ongoing	Backtesting, weight optimization, FEC integration

PANEL RULING REFERENCE

Full ruling: /home/ubuntu/edgeclaw/results/panel-results/politics-data-final-ruling.md Panel: Opus (judge) + Sonnet + Grok 4.2 Reasoning + Gemini Pro 3.1 Date: 2026-03-26, Grade: A

Source: ~/.claude/projects/-home-ubuntu-edgeclaw/memory/politics-desk-data-inventory.md