NCAAB Desk — Model Anchor Calibration Prompt

Context: Our MLB Player Props council (2026-04-03) established the universal framework: per-possession/per-PA rates as foundation, Bayesian shrinkage toward career prior, Log-Odds opponent adjustment, Gaussian copula for correlated combo props, dual-anchor system (sportsbook + model) tracked via Brier scores, confidence tiers. This prompt asks for the SPORT-SPECIFIC parameters to plug into that framework.

NCAAB Desk — Model Anchor Calibration

We are building model anchors for NCAAB betting markets on Kalshi: moneylines, point spreads, totals.

Questions:

1. What team metrics best predict point differential? (KenPom, Sagarin, BPI, Massey, four factors?)
2. How should tempo/pace interact with totals? Adjusted efficiency vs raw PPG?
3. How many games until college team metrics stabilize? Conference play vs non-conference?
4. Home court advantage — how does it vary by venue? (Cameron Indoor vs neutral site)
5. How should non-conference schedule strength adjust early-season ratings?
6. Injury/transfer portal impact in a sport with smaller rosters (12-13 scholarship players)?
7. How should conference tournament and March Madness adjustments work? (Motivation, rest, travel)
8. How to handle the massive number of teams (350+) with limited data per team?
9. EWMA alpha for college team metrics?
10. How should preseason rankings/projections serve as priors?
11. Give specific numbers, formulas, and implementation-ready recommendations.