Crypto Desk — Data Collection Spec (Mar 14, 2026)

Reviewed by 5-model panel: Flash (Financial), Sonnet (Anomaly/Risk), Maverick (Sentiment), Haiku (Practical), Opus (Contrarian)

What This Document Is

This is the complete data collection specification for the Crypto desk in the research pipeline. It covers cryptocurrency spot, derivatives, on-chain, DeFi, stablecoin, sentiment, and infrastructure data used to trade on Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets. An AI builder should be able to read this and know exactly what data to collect, from where, how often, and why.

The Business Model (Two Venues + Infrastructure Awareness)

Unlike sports desks that only compare prediction market prices to sharp books, the Crypto desk has THREE angles:

1. Kalshi — Binary prediction markets on crypto events (BTC above/below $X by date Y, ETH milestones, crypto regulatory events). Priced in USD.
2. Polymarket — Binary prediction markets on crypto + non-crypto events. Runs on USDC/Polygon — meaning Polymarket IS crypto infrastructure. When crypto markets stress, Polymarket liquidity drains. This is a feature, not a bug — we can predict it.
3. Traditional crypto venues (not for trading) — We don't trade spot BTC or ETH. We use exchange data (Binance, Coinbase, Deribit) purely as intelligence to price Kalshi/Polymarket contracts more accurately than other participants.

The edge: Crypto has more free data than any other asset class. On-chain data, derivatives data, stablecoin flows, DeFi yields — nearly everything is public and free. We build a DIY Nansen/Glassnode that captures 80% of paid service value for $0.

How Crypto Is Different From Stocks/Options/Sports

1. 24/7 Markets — Crypto never closes. No overnight gaps, no weekends off. Collection runs continuously. Events at 3 AM matter.

2. On-Chain Transparency — Every transaction is public. Whale movements, exchange flows, miner selling, stablecoin mints/burns are all visible before they hit prices. No equivalent exists in equities.

3. Stablecoin Infrastructure Risk — Polymarket settles in USDC on Polygon. If USDC depegs even 0.5%, every Polymarket position loses real value regardless of the prediction outcome. This is a risk no other desk faces.

4. Derivatives Tail Wags the Dog — Perpetual futures funding rates, liquidation cascades, and options gamma exposure drive crypto prices more than fundamentals. The derivatives market IS the price discovery mechanism.

5. Narrative Cycles — Crypto rotates between narratives (DeFi summer, NFT mania, L2 season, meme coins, AI tokens). Detecting narrative shifts early through social/on-chain data is a primary alpha source.

6. Regulatory Binary Events — A single SEC enforcement action or court ruling can move the entire market 10-20% in hours. Regulatory monitoring is not optional.

7. Miner Supply Dynamics — Bitcoin miners are forced sellers (they have electricity bills). Their profitability and selling behavior are predictable from hash rate, difficulty, and energy cost data. No equivalent in other markets.

SECTION A: SPOT PRICE AND MARKET DATA

1. Spot Prices — Top 50 Coins

What: Real-time price data for the top 50 cryptocurrencies by market cap.

Source: CoinGecko Free API (no key required, 10-30 calls/min rate limit) Endpoint: GET https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/markets?vs_currency=usd&order=market_cap_desc&per_page=50&page=1&sparkline=false&price_change_percentage=1h,24h,7d,14d,30d,200d,1y

What to pull per coin:

• id, symbol, name
• current_price, high_24h, low_24h
• market_cap, market_cap_rank, fully_diluted_valuation
• total_volume (24h)
• circulating_supply, total_supply, max_supply
• price_change_percentage_1h, _24h, _7d, _14d, _30d, _200d, _1y
• ath, ath_change_percentage, ath_date
• atl, atl_change_percentage, atl_date
• last_updated

Collection frequency: Every 5 minutes

Why it matters: Multi-timeframe momentum (% changes at each window), mean-reversion signals (distance from ATH/ATL), volume spikes (24h volume vs rolling average). Prices feed every composite signal.

Backup source: CryptoCompare (free, 100K calls/month). GET https://min-api.cryptocompare.com/data/pricemultifull?fsyms=BTC,ETH,SOL&tsyms=USD. Only activate if CoinGecko is down. Price discrepancy >0.5% between the two = data quality issue to investigate.

2. Historical OHLCV (Daily)

What: Daily open/high/low/close candles for technical analysis.

Source: CoinGecko Free API Endpoint: GET https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/{id}/ohlc?vs_currency=usd&days=30

What to pull: timestamp, open, high, low, close arrays per coin.

Collection frequency: Every 4 hours (refresh 30-day lookback). Deduplicate by coin+date.

Why it matters: Foundation for technical indicators (RSI, MACD, Bollinger bands, support/resistance). Required for NUPL approximation and rolling correlation calculations.

3. Global Market Data

What: Total crypto market cap, BTC dominance, stablecoin percentage — the macro view.

Source: CoinGecko Free API Endpoint: GET https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/global

What to pull:

• total_market_cap (USD)
• total_volume (USD)
• market_cap_percentage (BTC dominance, ETH dominance, stablecoin %)
• market_cap_change_percentage_24h_usd
• active_cryptocurrencies count

Collection frequency: Every 15 minutes

Why it matters: BTC dominance shifts signal rotation. Falling BTC dominance = alt season (capital flowing to smaller coins). Rising BTC dominance = flight to quality within crypto. Total market cap trajectory = risk appetite proxy.

4. Trending Coins

What: CoinGecko's trending list — coins getting the most search attention.

Source: CoinGecko Free API Endpoint: GET https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/search/trending

What to pull: trending coins list (id, name, symbol, market_cap_rank, price_btc)

Collection frequency: Every 2 hours

Why it matters: Retail attention proxy. Sudden appearance of low-cap coins = potential pump-and-dump risk. When BTC appears on trending during a dump, retail panic is peaking (contrarian signal).

5. Fear & Greed Index

What: Crypto market sentiment score from 0 (Extreme Fear) to 100 (Extreme Greed).

Source: Alternative.me (free, no key) Endpoint: GET https://api.alternative.me/fng/?limit=1&format=json

What to pull: value (0-100), value_classification, timestamp

Collection frequency: Every 6 hours (updates daily, but check more often to catch the update)

Why it matters: Premier contrarian indicator. Extreme Fear (<15) has historically produced +22% BTC returns over 30 days. Extreme Greed (>85) historically marks local tops. Combine with price action — fear + price holding = accumulation. Greed + price stalling = distribution.

SECTION B: DERIVATIVES DATA (Deribit Is the Goldmine)

6. Deribit BTC/ETH Options Chains

What: Full options chains with pre-calculated Greeks from the world's largest crypto options exchange. 100% free, real-time, no authentication required.

Source: Deribit Public API Endpoint: GET https://www.deribit.com/api/v2/public/get_book_summary_by_currency?currency=BTC&kind=option Also: currency=ETH&kind=option

What to pull per instrument:

• instrument_name (encodes strike, expiry, call/put)
• mark_price, bid_price, ask_price, mid_price
• mark_iv (implied volatility)
• open_interest
• volume, volume_usd
• underlying_price, underlying_index
• interest_rate
• price_change (%)

Collection frequency: Every 15 minutes

Why it matters:

• Put/Call ratio from OI = directional sentiment
• Max pain (strike with most OI) = gravitational price target near expiry
• IV skew (put IV vs call IV) = fear premium
• Term structure of IV = event risk pricing
• Large OI clusters at specific strikes = dealer hedging levels (gamma walls, pin risk)
• Validation purpose: Test DIY GEX math here before applying to equity options (Options desk synergy)

7. DVOL Index (Crypto VIX)

What: Deribit's volatility index — the crypto equivalent of the VIX.

Source: Deribit Public API Endpoint: GET https://www.deribit.com/api/v2/public/get_volatility_index_data?currency=BTC&resolution=3600&start_timestamp={24h_ago_ms}&end_timestamp={now_ms} Also: currency=ETH

What to pull: timestamp, open, high, low, close (of DVOL index)

Collection frequency: Every hour

Why it matters: Rising DVOL = increasing uncertainty. DVOL spike + price drop = panic (potential bottom). DVOL crush = complacency (potential top). DVOL level vs realized vol = vol risk premium.

8. Deribit Futures and Perpetuals

What: Futures basis and funding rate from the institutional crypto venue.

Source: Deribit Public API Endpoint (futures): GET https://www.deribit.com/api/v2/public/get_book_summary_by_currency?currency=BTC&kind=future Endpoint (funding): GET https://www.deribit.com/api/v2/public/get_funding_rate_value?instrument_name=BTC-PERPETUAL&start_timestamp={8h_ago_ms}&end_timestamp={now_ms}

What to pull: basis (futures premium/discount vs spot), funding rate per settlement

Collection frequency: Futures every 15 minutes. Funding every 8 hours (matches settlement).

Why it matters: Contango (positive basis) = bullish positioning. Backwardation = bearish. Deribit is the institutional venue — its funding rate reflects smart money positioning. Cross-reference with multi-exchange funding for confirmation.

9. Multi-Exchange Perpetual Funding Rates

What: Funding rates across all major perp exchanges — the single most important derivatives signal.

Source: CoinGecko Derivatives API (aggregates all exchanges) Endpoint: GET https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/derivatives?include_tickers=unexpired

Direct exchange APIs (free, no key):

• Binance: GET https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/fundingRate?symbol=BTCUSDT&limit=10
• Bybit: GET https://api.bybit.com/v5/market/funding/history?category=linear&symbol=BTCUSDT
• OKX: GET https://www.okx.com/api/v5/public/funding-rate?instId=BTC-USDT-SWAP
• dYdX: GET https://indexer.dydx.trade/v4/perpetualMarkets

What to pull per exchange+pair:

• market (exchange name), symbol, funding_rate (8-hour rate)
• open_interest (USD), volume_24h (USD)
• basis (futures premium/discount vs spot, %)

Collection frequency: Every 15 minutes

Why it matters:

• Persistently positive funding (>0.03%) = longs paying shorts = crowded long, potential squeeze downward
• Negative funding = crowded short, potential squeeze upward
• Funding rate divergence across exchanges = arbitrage signal
• Funding flips sign after 7+ days in one direction = sentiment reversal signal
• CEX dominates price discovery with 61% higher integration than DEX. When DEX funding leads CEX for the first time, something unusual is happening (Contrarian find)

10. Liquidation Data

What: Forced position closures across all exchanges — cascade amplifiers.

Source: Coinglass (free tier) Endpoint: GET https://open-api.coinglass.com/public/v2/liquidation_history Also: GET https://open-api.coinglass.com/public/v2/liquidation_info

Backup (free):

• Binance: GET https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/openInterest?symbol=BTCUSDT
• Long/short ratios: GET https://fapi.binance.com/futures/data/globalLongShortAccountRatio?symbol=BTCUSDT&period=1h

What to pull:

• Total liquidations (24h, 1h) in USD
• Long vs short liquidation ratio
• Largest single liquidation
• Liquidation by exchange
• Open interest changes (OI drops without volume = implied liquidation)

Collection frequency: Every 5 minutes

Alert thresholds:

• $100M in 1h = MEDIUM (normal volatility event)

• $300M in 1h = HIGH (cascade starting)

• $500M in 1h = CRITICAL (full cascade)

• $1B in 4h = CRITICAL (systemic liquidation event)

Why it matters: Liquidation cascades amplify moves. Long/short ratio tells you which side got wiped. After a cascade: initial dump, dead cat bounce, then either second leg down (cascade continues) or V-recovery (cascade exhausted). Flag as potential entry signal for bounce trades on Kalshi/Polymarket.

Note: If Coinglass free tier blocks access, derive liquidation estimates from OI drops in the derivatives data above.

11. DIY Crypto GEX (Gamma Exposure)

What: Estimate market maker hedging pressure at each price level, calculated from Deribit options data.

How to calculate:

• For each strike: GEX = OI x Contract Multiplier x Gamma x Spot Price
• Call OI = positive gamma (dealers sold calls, short gamma)
• Put OI = negative gamma (dealers sold puts, long gamma)
• Net GEX per strike = Call GEX - Put GEX
• "Gamma flip" = strike where cumulative GEX crosses zero

Key outputs:

• Total GEX (positive = dealers stabilize, negative = dealers amplify)
• Gamma flip point (price level where regime changes)
• Gamma walls (strikes with massive OI = price magnets near expiry)

Collection frequency: Calculated every 15 minutes from Deribit data (Section 6)

Why it matters: This is the crypto desk's contribution to validating the Options desk's DIY GEX math. Get it right here with Deribit's pre-calculated Greeks, then apply the same methodology to equity options.

SECTION C: ON-CHAIN DATA (DIY Nansen)

12. Exchange Flows (Whale Movements)

What: Track BTC and ETH flowing in and out of known exchange wallets. This is DIY Nansen — capturing 80% of that paid service's value for $0.

Sources (all free):

• Whale Alert API (free tier, requires free key, 10 calls/min): GET https://api.whale-alert.io/v1/transactions?api_key=KEY&min_value=5000000&start=UNIX_TS
• Blockchain.com (BTC, free): GET https://api.blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd?timespan=30days&format=json
• CryptoQuant free tier (limited): GET https://api.cryptoquant.com/v1/btc/exchange-flows/netflow

What to pull:

• Net inflow/outflow direction per exchange
• Large single transfers (>$10M equivalent)
• Source/destination labels (exchange vs unknown wallet)

Collection frequency: Every 30 minutes for flow data. Every 5 minutes for Whale Alert.

Why it matters:

• Large exchange inflows = whales depositing to sell (bearish, 30-60 min lead time)
• Large exchange outflows = withdrawing to cold storage (bullish accumulation)
• Exchange balance trend is one of the most reliable on-chain signals

• $500M in whale transfers to exchanges in 1 hour = HIGH alert (coordinated selling)

13. Dormant Wallet Activations

What: Monitor wallets that haven't moved in years — Satoshi-era coins, Mt. Gox trustee, government seizure wallets.

Known wallets to monitor:

• US Government seized BTC (bc1qm34lsc65zpw79lxes69zkqmk6ee3ewf0j77s3 and others)
• Mt. Gox trustee wallets (~140K BTC still to distribute)
• Grayscale GBTC cold wallets
• MicroStrategy wallets
• El Salvador government wallet
• Satoshi-era wallets (1A1zP... genesis block, ~50 BTC each)
• China frozen holdings (~194K BTC from seizures)

Sources (all free):

• Whale Alert API (as above)
• Blockchain.com: GET https://api.blockchain.info/rawaddr/{address}?limit=5
• Arkham Intelligence free tier
• BitInfoCharts rich list (scrape): https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html
• BitcoinTreasuries.net: government + corporate holdings

Collection frequency: Hourly check on known wallet list. Whale Alert runs every 5 minutes.

Alert thresholds:

• Dormant wallet (>3 years) moves >$10M = HIGH
• Satoshi-era wallet (2009-2011) moves ANY amount = CRITICAL (never happens)
• US Government wallet moves >$1M = HIGH (auction/sale incoming)
• Mt. Gox trustee wallet moves = CRITICAL (distribution = massive sell pressure)

Why it matters: Government holdings total 600,000+ BTC (3.1% of supply). These movements are detectable on-chain BEFORE any press release. A single confirmed Satoshi-era wallet movement would dominate crypto news for days.

14. BTC Network Stats

What: Hash rate, difficulty, transaction count, mempool — Bitcoin network health fundamentals.

Source: Blockchain.com API (free, no key) Endpoint: GET https://api.blockchain.info/stats

What to pull:

• hash_rate, difficulty, n_tx (transaction count)
• n_blocks_mined, minutes_between_blocks
• total_fees_btc, miners_revenue_usd
• estimated_transaction_volume_usd
• nextretarget (block height of next difficulty adjustment)

Collection frequency: Every 30 minutes

Source (mempool): Mempool.space API (free, no key) Endpoints:

• GET https://mempool.space/api/v1/fees/recommended (fee rates)
• GET https://mempool.space/api/mempool (unconfirmed tx count, total vsize)

Collection frequency (mempool): Every 15 minutes

Why it matters:

• Hash rate trajectory = miner confidence / network security
• Negative difficulty adjustment = miners capitulating (historically bullish medium-term)
• Fee spikes = congestion = possible inscription mania or retail FOMO
• Extremely low fees = apathy (accumulation zone)
• Mempool >100MB = HIGH (severe congestion). >200MB = CRITICAL.

15. Ethereum Gas and Supply

What: ETH gas prices and supply dynamics (EIP-1559 burn tracking).

Source: Etherscan API v2 (free tier, 5 calls/sec, requires free API key) Endpoints:

• Gas: GET https://api.etherscan.io/v2/api?chainid=1&module=gastracker&action=gasoracle&apikey={KEY}
• Supply: GET https://api.etherscan.io/v2/api?chainid=1&module=stats&action=ethsupply2&apikey={KEY}

What to pull:

• SafeGasPrice, ProposeGasPrice, FastGasPrice, suggestBaseFee, gasUsedRatio
• EthSupply, Eth2Staking, BurntFees, TotalWithdrawn

Collection frequency: Gas every 15 minutes. Supply every 2 hours.

Why it matters:

• Gas price = Ethereum demand proxy. High gas = high usage = more ETH burned = bullish supply dynamics
• ETH net negative issuance = deflationary = bullish
• Gas spikes correlate with DEX activity, NFT mints, or panic selling

16. BTC Active Addresses

What: Unique addresses transacting daily — network adoption metric.

Source: Blockchain.com Charts API (free) Endpoint: GET https://api.blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses?timespan=30days&format=json

Collection frequency: Every 4 hours

Why it matters: Rising active addresses = growing network usage = bullish (Metcalfe's law). Declining addresses during price rise = divergence = potential top. This is a fundamental health metric.

SECTION D: STABLECOIN MONITORING (Time-Critical for Polymarket)

17. USDC/USDT Peg Monitoring

What: Real-time stablecoin peg deviation tracking. USDC is existential for Polymarket — every penny of depeg directly reduces the real value of every Polymarket position.

Sources (all free):

• CoinGecko: GET https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/simple/price?ids=tether,usd-coin,dai,frax,true-usd,paypal-usd&vs_currencies=usd&include_24hr_change=true
• Binance: GET https://api.binance.com/api/v3/ticker/price?symbol=USDTDAI
• Kraken: GET https://api.kraken.com/0/public/Ticker?pair=USDTUSD,USDCUSD
• DefiLlama stablecoins: GET https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoins?includePrices=true

Collection frequency: Every 5 MINUTES (not 15 — this is time-critical)

5 severity tiers:

POLYMARKET SPECIAL RULE: If USDC depegs >0.5%, automatically flag ALL open Polymarket positions. A $0.95 USDC means your $100 Polymarket win is only worth $95 in real terms.

Why it matters: The March 2023 SVB crisis caused USDC to depeg to $0.88. Any repeat threatens every Polymarket position across every desk. This monitor protects the entire pipeline, not just the Crypto desk.

18. Stablecoin Supply by Chain

What: Total stablecoin supply breakdown by blockchain — tracks capital flows into/out of crypto and between chains.

Source: DefiLlama Stablecoins API (free, no key) Endpoints:

• All stablecoins: GET https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoins
• Per-chain breakdown: GET https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoinchains
• USDT details: GET https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1
• USDC details: GET https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/2

What to pull per stablecoin:

• name, symbol, pegType, pegMechanism
• circulating (total supply), circulatingPrevDay/PrevWeek/PrevMonth
• chains (array of chains + per-chain circulating)
• price

Collection frequency: Every 2 hours

Why it matters:

• Stablecoin supply growth = new capital entering crypto (bullish). Supply contraction = capital leaving (bearish). The single most reliable macro-crypto flow indicator.
• USDC supply on Polygon specifically = direct Polymarket liquidity. Sudden Polygon USDC outflow = Polymarket liquidity crisis.
• Total stablecoin supply feeds the Stablecoin Supply Ratio composite signal.

19. USDT-to-USDC Rotation Tracking (Contrarian's Top Find)

What: Track the composition shift between stablecoins — reveals WHO is entering/exiting the market.

Source: DefiLlama Stablecoins API (same as Section 18)

What to calculate:

• USDT/USDC market share ratio (daily)
• USDT dominance ratio (USDT market cap / total stablecoin market cap)
• DAI total supply + sDAI yield (DeFi leverage gauge)

Collection frequency: Daily

Why it matters:

• USDT (58.58% market share) = retail/offshore standard
• USDC (ATH $78.25B after Circle minted $600M this week) = institutional/regulated standard
• When capital flows FROM USDT TO USDC (USDC share rises, USDT flat/declining), institutions are entering. This has preceded every major institutional-driven rally.
• The REVERSE (USDC to USDT) often precedes regulatory FUD or risk-off moves
• This is the Contrarian panel's #1 finding — nobody else tracks the composition, only the totals

20. Curve 3pool Balance Ratios (Depeg Leading Indicator)

What: The balance of USDT/USDC/DAI in Curve's 3pool — imbalances reveal depeg stress BEFORE the stablecoin price moves.

Source: DefiLlama (free) Endpoint: GET https://api.llama.fi/protocol/curve-dex (includes TVL breakdown)

Collection frequency: Every 2 hours

Alert thresholds:

• Any one stablecoin >40% of pool = MEDIUM (slight market avoidance of that stable)
• Any one stablecoin >50% of pool = HIGH (market dumping that stable into the pool)
• Any one stablecoin >60% of pool = CRITICAL (active flight from that stablecoin)

Why it matters: Curve pool imbalances appeared hours before the USDC depeg became obvious in March 2023. This is the earliest warning signal for stablecoin stress.

21. Tether-Specific Risk Monitor

What: Dedicated monitoring for USDT — the single biggest systemic risk in crypto ($110B+ market cap, base pair on most exchanges).

Sources (all free):

• Tether transparency page (scrape): https://tether.to/en/transparency/
• DefiLlama: GET https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoin/1
• Whale Alert: filter for "Tether Treasury" mints/burns
• Tronscan: GET https://apilist.tronscanapi.com/api/token_trc20/transfers?limit=20&contract_address=TR7NHqjeKQxGTCi8q8ZY4pL8otSzgjLj6t
• Etherscan: monitor treasury address 0x5754284f345afc66a98fbb0a0afe71e0f007b949

What to track:

• USDT total supply by chain (Ethereum, Tron, Solana, BSC)
• Treasury mints/burns (large events)
• Attestation publication dates and delays
• USDT Tron vs Ethereum ratio (Tron dominance = retail/offshore usage)
• Legal proceedings

Collection frequency: Every 30 minutes for supply/treasury. Daily for attestations.

Alert thresholds:

• USDT supply drops >$500M in 24h = HIGH (redemption pressure)
• USDT supply drops >$2B in 7d = CRITICAL (bank run)
• Attestation delayed >30 days = HIGH
• DOJ/SEC action against Tether = CRITICAL

Why it matters: If Tether fails, it doesn't just affect USDT holders. It affects ALL crypto pricing because most BTC/ETH trading is against USDT. A Tether collapse could cause 50%+ market crash, exchange insolvency, and complete prediction market disruption.

SECTION E: DeFi DATA

22. TVL by Chain and Protocol

What: Total Value Locked across DeFi — the health of the decentralized finance ecosystem.

Source: DefiLlama (free, no key, no rate limit published) Endpoints:

• Chain TVL: GET https://api.llama.fi/v2/chains
• All protocols: GET https://api.llama.fi/protocols
• Specific protocol history: GET https://api.llama.fi/tvl/{protocol}

What to pull:

• Per chain: name, tvl, tokenSymbol
• Per protocol: name, symbol, tvl, category, chain(s), change_1h/1d/7d

Filter: Top 50 by TVL + all protocols on Polygon (Polymarket infrastructure)

Collection frequency: Chain TVL every 2 hours. Protocol TVL every 4 hours.

Alert thresholds:

• Protocol TVL drops >20% in 24h = HIGH (bank run or exploit)
• Protocol TVL drops >50% in 24h = CRITICAL
• Chain-level TVL drops >10% in 24h = HIGH
• Top 10 protocol TVL drops >5% simultaneously = CRITICAL (systemic risk event)

Why it matters: TVL migration between chains = capital rotation signal. Collapse on a specific chain = potential exploit or confidence loss. Bridge TVL = cross-chain flow indicator.

23. DEX Volumes

What: Decentralized exchange trading volumes by chain and protocol.

Source: DefiLlama (free) Endpoint: GET https://api.llama.fi/overview/dexs

What to pull: total24h, total7d, total30d, change_1d, per-DEX volumes

Collection frequency: Every 2 hours

Why it matters: DEX volume spikes = organic demand surge or panic (check price direction). DEX-to-CEX volume ratio rising = decentralization trend or regulatory front-running (users moving off exchanges before expected enforcement). DEX/CEX ratio divergence between spot and perps reveals whether leverage is retail (DEX perps) or institutional (CEX perps).

24. DeFi Lending Rates (The Crypto Yield Curve)

What: Borrow and supply rates on major lending protocols — this is crypto's equivalent of the Treasury yield curve.

Source: DefiLlama Yields API (free) Endpoint: GET https://yields.llama.fi/pools (14,038 pools across 522 protocols)

Additional direct sources:

• Aave: https://aave.com (rate data)
• DeFi Rate: https://defirate.com/lend/

What to pull:

• Aave USDC/USDT/DAI borrow and supply rates
• Compound USDC/USDT rates
• sDAI yield vs USDC savings rate

Collection frequency: Hourly (rates change with every block)

Calculated metrics:

• Aave USDC supply rate minus 3-month T-bill yield = "crypto risk premium"
• When this spread is positive, capital should flow into DeFi. Negative = capital exits to TradFi.

Why it matters: Aave borrow rate spikes precede large price moves by 6-24 hours. When USDC borrow rates spike from 4% to 12%, traders are borrowing stablecoins to buy crypto — REAL leverage demand, not just funding rate noise. Aave controls ~57-60% of DeFi lending and its rates are THE benchmark. This is the Contrarian panel's key DeFi edge.

25. Smart Contract Risk / DeFi Exploits

What: New exploit/hack reports and protocol risk monitoring.

Sources (all free):

• Rekt.news RSS: https://rekt.news/rss.xml
• DefiLlama hacks: GET https://api.llama.fi/hacks
• SlowMist Hacked: https://hacked.slowmist.io/ (scrape)
• Security X accounts via Grok search: @PeckShieldAlert, @CertiKAlert, @SlowMist_Team

Collection frequency: Every 30 minutes for feeds. Every 2 hours for social.

Alert thresholds:

• Any exploit >$10M = HIGH
• Any exploit >$50M = CRITICAL
• Bridge exploit (any size) = CRITICAL (systemic, affects multiple chains)
• Oracle manipulation exploit = HIGH (could affect prediction markets)

• 3 exploits in same week = HIGH (possible shared vulnerability)

Why it matters: Exploits can cascade into broader market stress. Bridge exploits especially can drain liquidity from entire ecosystems.

SECTION F: ETF FLOWS (Institutional Signal)

26. BTC Spot ETF Daily Flows

What: Daily inflows/outflows for all 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs — the dominant BTC price driver since January 2024.

Source: Farside Investors (free, simple HTML table, easy to parse) URL: https://farside.co.uk/btc/ Backup: SoSoValue (https://sosovalue.xyz/assets/etf/us-btc-spot), CoinGlass (https://www.coinglass.com/bitcoin-etf)

What to pull per date:

• Per-fund flows: IBIT (BlackRock), FBTC (Fidelity), GBTC (Grayscale), ARKB (Ark/21Shares), BITB (Bitwise), HODL (VanEck), BRRR (Valkyrie), EZBC (Franklin), BTCW (WisdomTree), BTCO (Invesco), DEFI (Hashdex)
• Total net inflow/outflow (USD)
• Total AUM
• Premium/discount to NAV

Collection frequency: Once daily at 6PM ET (after market close, data published ~5PM)

Key signals:

• Net inflows >$200M/day = strong institutional buying = bullish
• Net outflows >$100M/day = institutional selling = bearish
• IBIT (BlackRock) alone is THE signal — when IBIT has inflows but all others have outflows, BlackRock clients are buying while everyone else sells. BlackRock clients are usually right.
• Consecutive outflow days (5+) have historically preceded 10-15% drawdowns
• Consecutive inflow days (5+) during flat/down price = stealth accumulation

27. ETH Spot ETF Daily Flows

What: Same structure as BTC ETFs but for Ethereum — pure risk appetite signal.

Source: Farside Investors (free) URL: https://farside.co.uk/eth/

Collection frequency: Once daily at 6PM ET

Why it matters: ETHE flows are a pure risk-appetite signal. ETH is "riskier BTC" to institutional allocators. When ETHE inflows accelerate relative to IBIT, risk appetite is increasing. The reverse (ETHE outflows while IBIT inflows) = institutions rotating to safety within crypto.

SECTION G: PREDICTION MARKET DATA

28. Kalshi Crypto Markets

What: All active Kalshi crypto-related contracts — direct trading venue.

Source: Kalshi API (already integrated) Endpoint: GET https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?series_ticker=KXBTC

What to pull: ticker, yes_price, no_price, volume, open_interest, close_time, order book depth

Collection frequency: Every 15 minutes during market hours

Why it matters: Direct trading venue. Price discrepancies between Kalshi crypto markets and spot/derivatives implied probabilities = arbitrage opportunities.

29. Polymarket Crypto Markets

What: Crypto-related Polymarket contracts + on-chain trading data.

Source: Polymarket API (free) Endpoints:

• Markets: GET https://clob.polymarket.com/markets
• Crypto-tagged: GET https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?tag=crypto

What to pull: market id, prices, volume, order book depth, USDC flow in/out

Collection frequency: Every 15 minutes

Why it matters: Different user base from Kalshi (crypto-native vs US retail). Prices diverge by >5 percentage points approximately 15-20% of the time. The divergence itself is an information signal for main crypto trades.

30. Polymarket On-Chain Intelligence (Contrarian's Edge)

What: Monitor Polymarket's blockchain activity for alpha that isn't visible in prices alone.

A) UMA Oracle Dispute Window — Free Money Window:

• Polymarket uses UMA's Optimistic Oracle for resolution
• When proposed for resolution, there is a 2-HOUR CHALLENGE PERIOD
• During this window, the market is still tradeable but the outcome is essentially known (unless disputed)
• Monitor UMA oracle proposal transactions. When correctly proposed, buy the correct outcome at whatever discount remains.
• If disputed TWICE, goes to UMA DVM token holder vote (historically manipulable — $7M governance attack precedent)

B) Market Maker Wallet Fingerprinting:

• CTF Exchange contract (0x4bfb41d5...bd8b8982e) logs every OrderMatched/OrderFilled event
• Track top 50 wallets by volume
• When a market maker who normally provides two-sided liquidity goes one-directional, they have information. Detectable 10-30 minutes before price moves.
• Notable wallets: "Theo4" and "Fredi9999" have lifetime earnings exceeding $22M

C) Contract Creation Rate:

• New market creation rate = new speculative demand proxy
• Spikes precede volume spikes by 24-48 hours

Sources (all free):

• PolygonScan: contract events (free API)
• The Graph subgraphs (100k queries/month free)
• Polywhaler (polywhaler.com): whale trade alerts
• PolyMonit (polymonit.com): wallet tracking
• GitHub: Polymarket/uma-ctf-adapter (oracle contract source)

Collection frequency: Real-time for oracle events. Hourly for wallet analysis. Daily for market creation rates.

31. Binary Probability Calculator (The Bridge)

What: Math that converts Deribit crypto options data into Kalshi/Polymarket-comparable probabilities.

How: Use d2 from Black-Scholes to calculate the probability BTC/ETH will be above/below a specific price by a specific date. Compare to prediction market contract prices.

Example: Deribit options imply 30% probability BTC > $100K by month-end. Kalshi contract "BTC above $100K" trades at 22 cents. The contract is underpriced by 8 cents.

Inputs: IV surface (Section 6), risk-free rate, time to expiration, current price. Output: Probability per strike per expiration vs prediction market prices.

Collection frequency: Recalculated every time options data or prediction market prices update.

SECTION H: MACRO CORRELATION

32. BTC vs Traditional Assets

What: Rolling correlations between BTC and equities, gold, and the dollar — determines which macro regime crypto is trading in.

Sources (all free):

• CoinGecko: BTC/ETH price data
• Yahoo Finance (unofficial):
  • Nasdaq: GET https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/%5EIXIC?interval=1d&range=30d
  • Gold: GET https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/GC%3DF?interval=1d&range=30d
  • DXY: GET https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/DX-Y.NYB?interval=1d&range=30d
• FRED API (free, requires key):
  • DGS10 (10Y Treasury yield), DGS2 (2Y yield), VIXCLS (VIX)
  • Credit spreads: BAMLH0A0HYM2 (High Yield), BAMLC0A0CM (Investment Grade)

What to calculate (from stored data, no API needed):

• BTC/Nasdaq 30/60/90-day rolling correlation
• BTC/Gold 30-day rolling correlation
• BTC/DXY 30-day rolling correlation (should be NEGATIVE)
• 10Y-2Y spread (yield curve steepness)

Collection frequency: Once daily at 7PM ET (after all markets close)

Why it matters:

• BTC-Nasdaq correlation >0.7 = crypto trading as risk asset (follows equity sentiment)
• BTC-DXY negative correlation = dollar weakness drives crypto up. When this breaks (both rising), flag it.
• BTC-Gold positive correlation = "digital gold" narrative active
• Inverted yield curve + VIX spike = risk-off = crypto sells
• Correlation regime breaks — when BTC decouples from equities — are THEMSELVES tradeable. Track and alert on regime shifts.

SECTION I: EXCHANGE HEALTH AND RISK

33. Exchange Token Prices (Canary Signals)

What: Exchange-native token prices relative to BTC — the earliest available warning of exchange stress.

Source: CoinGecko Free API Endpoint: GET https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/simple/price?ids=binancecoin,crypto-com-chain,unus-sed-leo,okb,kucoin-shares,mx-token&vs_currencies=usd,btc&include_24hr_change=true&include_market_cap=true

Tokens tracked:

• BNB (Binance), CRO (Crypto.com), LEO (Bitfinex), OKB (OKX), KCS (KuCoin), MX (MEXC)

Collection frequency: Every 30 minutes

Alert thresholds:

• Exchange token drops >10% in 24h while BTC drops <3% = CRITICAL (THE FTX signal)
• Exchange token drops >20% in 7d regardless of market = HIGH
• Exchange token/BTC ratio drops >2 standard deviations from 30d mean = HIGH
• Volume spikes >5x average = MEDIUM (unusual selling)

Why it matters: FTT collapsed weeks before FTX went bankrupt. Exchange token vs BTC relative performance is the single earliest exchange insolvency warning.

34. Exchange Health and Trust

What: CoinGecko trust scores, volume rankings, and proof-of-reserves status.

Source: CoinGecko Free API Endpoint: GET https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/exchanges?per_page=20

What to pull: name, trust_score, trust_score_rank, trade_volume_24h_btc

Collection frequency: Every 4 hours

Additional monitoring:

• Exchange status APIs (all free, no key):
  • Binance: GET https://api.binance.com/sapi/v1/system/status
  • Coinbase: GET https://status.coinbase.com/api/v2/status.json
  • Kraken: GET https://status.kraken.com/api/v2/status.json
  • OKX: GET https://www.okx.com/api/v5/system/status
• Status check frequency: Every 5 minutes

Proof of Reserves (scrape):

• DefiLlama CEX transparency: https://defillama.com/cexs
• Check frequency: Every 6 hours
• Alert: Reserve ratio drops below 1.0 = CRITICAL. Drops >5% in 24h = HIGH.

35. Cross-Exchange Price Spreads

What: BTC/ETH spot price comparison across major exchanges — arbitrage and stress indicator.

Sources (all free, no key required for public tickers):

• Binance: GET https://api.binance.com/api/v3/ticker/bookTicker?symbol=BTCUSDT
• Coinbase: GET https://api.exchange.coinbase.com/products/BTC-USD/ticker
• Kraken: GET https://api.kraken.com/0/public/Ticker?pair=XBTUSD
• Bybit: GET https://api.bybit.com/v5/market/tickers?category=spot&symbol=BTCUSDT
• OKX: GET https://www.okx.com/api/v5/market/ticker?instId=BTC-USDT
• Bitfinex: GET https://api-pub.bitfinex.com/v2/ticker/tBTCUSD
• Upbit (Korean): GET https://api.upbit.com/v1/ticker?markets=KRW-BTC

Collection frequency: Every 2 minutes

Alert thresholds:

• BTC spread >0.3% between any two major exchanges = MEDIUM
• BTC spread >0.5% = HIGH
• BTC spread >1.0% = CRITICAL (exchange in trouble or major regional event)
• Kimchi premium >5% = HIGH (Korean FOMO, historically marks local tops)
• Kimchi premium <-2% = MEDIUM (Korean selling, bearish signal)
• Coinbase premium index (Coinbase vs global) = US institutional demand proxy

SECTION J: SENTIMENT AND SOCIAL

36. Crypto Twitter/X

What: Tiered monitoring of 30+ crypto accounts via Grok's built-in X search (free).

Accounts by tier:

Whale/Market Makers (trade flow signals):

• @whale_alert, @lookonchain, @EmberCN, @OnchainDataNerd, @ArkhamIntel

Builders/Insiders (fundamental signals, 1-4 week lead):

• @VitalikButerin, @brian_armstrong, @aaboreyev, @rajgokal, @jessepollak, @hasufl

Analysts/Quant:

• @Rewkang, @CryptoHayes, @inversebrah, @lightcrypto, @Pentosh1, @HsakaTrades

Macro/Narrative:

• @RaoulGMI, @CryptoKaleo, @zaborski, @nic__carter, @DegenSpartan

Security/Risk:

• @PeckShieldAlert, @CertiKAlert, @SlowMist_Team, @samczsun

Collection frequency: 3x daily scans (pre-market, midday, after close)

37. Reddit Crypto Sentiment

What: Subreddit monitoring for crowd positioning and contrarian signals.

Source: Reddit API / PRAW (free) Subreddits: r/cryptocurrency, r/bitcoin, r/ethereum, r/CryptoMarkets, r/defi, r/altcoin, r/solana, r/cardano

What to track:

• Daily post volume mentioning tracked coins
• Bullish/bearish sentiment ratio (keyword-based)
• Most-mentioned tickers (crowd positioning)
• "Moon/lambo" post frequency (retail euphoria gauge)
• Strategy shift tracking (when crowd pivots from bulls to bears or vice versa)

Collection frequency: Daily aggregation at 10 PM ET

38. Google Trends

What: Search interest for crypto-related terms — retail attention gauge.

Source: Google Trends API (free) Terms to track: "buy bitcoin", "crypto", "ethereum", "bitcoin price"

Collection frequency: Daily

Why it matters: "Buy bitcoin" at 100 (max interest) has historically coincided with cycle tops. At near-zero = retail has fully capitulated (bottoming signal).

39. GitHub Developer Activity

What: Commit velocity for top 25 crypto project repositories — developer health proxy.

Source: GitHub API (free, 60 requests/hour unauthenticated, 5000/hour with free token) Endpoint: GET https://api.github.com/repos/{owner}/{repo}/stats/commit_activity

Repos to track: bitcoin/bitcoin, ethereum/go-ethereum, solana-labs/solana, plus top 20 by market cap

Collection frequency: Daily

Why it matters: Developer activity is a leading indicator of fundamental health. Declining commits during price rise = speculative premium without development backing. Rising commits during bear market = builders building (long-term bullish).

40. NFT Blue Chip Floor Prices

What: Floor prices for top NFT collections — altcoin sentiment leading indicator.

Source: CoinGecko NFT data or free NFT APIs Collections: CryptoPunks, BAYC, Azuki, Pudgy Penguins, DeGods

Collection frequency: Daily

Why it matters: NFT floor prices turn 1-3 days before altcoin sentiment shifts. NFT floor collapse = early warning of risk-off rotation in the broader altcoin market.

41. Crypto News Aggregation

What: RSS feeds from major crypto news sources with regulatory risk scoring.

Sources (all free RSS):

• CoinDesk: https://www.coindesk.com/arc/outboundfeeds/rss/
• The Block: https://www.theblock.co/rss.xml
• CoinTelegraph: https://cointelegraph.com/rss
• Decrypt: https://decrypt.co/feed
• Rekt.news: https://rekt.news/rss.xml
• CryptoSlate, BeInCrypto, DailyCoin (3 more sources)

Collection frequency: Every 2 hours

SECTION K: REGULATORY AND LEGAL

42. SEC/CFTC Enforcement Actions

What: US regulatory actions targeting crypto — binary market-moving events.

Sources (all free):

• SEC EDGAR: GET https://efts.sec.gov/LATEST/search-index?q=%22cryptocurrency%22+OR+%22digital+asset%22&dateRange=custom&startdt={7d_ago}&enddt={today}&forms=LIT
• SEC Press Releases RSS: https://www.sec.gov/rss/press.xml
• CFTC Press Releases: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases (scrape/RSS)
• Congress.gov API: GET https://api.congress.gov/v3/bill?query=cryptocurrency&api_key=DEMO_KEY

Collection frequency: Daily at 9AM ET for official sources. Every 2 hours for Grok X search.

Alert thresholds:

• SEC complaint against major exchange = CRITICAL (5-15% immediate drops)
• SEC complaint against specific token/protocol = HIGH
• Action targeting Kalshi or Polymarket specifically = CRITICAL (threatens our trading venue)
• Stablecoin regulation bill passes committee = MEDIUM
• Executive order mentioning crypto = HIGH
• Multiple enforcement actions in same week = HIGH (crackdown campaign)

43. Global Regulatory Tracker

What: International crypto regulation developments.

Source: Grok X search (free, built-in). Rotate queries by region weekly. Backup: CoinDesk regulatory tag (scrape)

Regions to monitor: China, EU (MiCA), UK (FCA), Japan (FSA), Hong Kong, Singapore

Collection frequency: Every 6 hours

Why it matters: G7 coordinated regulatory statement = CRITICAL. Major economy announces crypto ban = HIGH. Regulatory clarity = bullish (reduces uncertainty premium).

SECTION L: NETWORK INFRASTRUCTURE (Polymarket-Specific)

44. Polygon Network Health

What: Polygon blockchain health — directly affects Polymarket transaction execution.

Source: Polygonscan API (free tier, requires free API key) Endpoints:

• Gas: GET https://api.polygonscan.com/api?module=gastracker&action=gasoracle&apikey={KEY}
• Daily tx: GET https://api.polygonscan.com/api?module=stats&action=dailytx&startdate={7d_ago}&enddate={today}&sort=asc&apikey={KEY}
• MATIC supply: GET https://api.polygonscan.com/api?module=stats&action=MaticSupply&apikey={KEY}

Collection frequency: Gas every 30 minutes. Daily tx once daily.

Alert: Polygon gas >500 gwei = HIGH (Polymarket execution risk)

45. USDC Supply on Polygon (Polymarket Liquidity)

What: Total USDC on Polygon = direct Polymarket platform capacity.

Source: Polygonscan API Endpoint: GET https://api.polygonscan.com/api?module=account&action=tokenbalance&contractaddress=0x3c499c542cEF5E3811e1192ce70d8cC03d5c3359&address={POLYMARKET_PROXY}&tag=latest&apikey={KEY} Alternative: DefiLlama stablecoin chains data (Polygon USDC specifically)

Collection frequency: Every 2 hours

Why it matters: USDC balance in Polymarket contracts = total platform liquidity. Rapid outflows = users withdrawing = wider spreads = harder to execute. Rapid inflows = event-driven interest = better liquidity.

SECTION M: MINING ECONOMICS

46. Bitcoin Mining Metrics

What: Hash rate, difficulty, miner revenue — the supply side of BTC economics.

Source: Blockchain.com Charts API (free, no key) Endpoints:

• Hash rate: GET https://api.blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate?timespan=30days&format=json
• Difficulty: GET https://api.blockchain.info/charts/difficulty?timespan=60days&format=json
• Miner revenue: GET https://api.blockchain.info/charts/miners-revenue?timespan=30days&format=json
• Transaction fees: GET https://api.blockchain.info/charts/transaction-fees-usd?timespan=30days&format=json

Additional (free):

• Mempool.space: GET https://mempool.space/api/v1/mining/hashrate/1m
• Mining pools: GET https://mempool.space/api/v1/mining/pools/1w
• Hashrate Index (hashrateindex.com): hash price, ASIC prices

Collection frequency: Every 4 hours

Alert thresholds:

• Hash rate drops >10% in 24h = HIGH (miners going offline)
• Hash rate drops >25% in 7d = CRITICAL (major mining disruption)
• Difficulty adjustment <-10% = HIGH (miners leaving)

47. Hash Price (Miner Profitability)

What: Revenue per petahash per day — the single best miner profitability metric.

How to calculate: hash_price = daily_miner_revenue_usd / (hash_rate_TH * 86400)

Collection frequency: Computed daily from Section 46 data

Why it matters:

• Hash price below $0.05 = extreme stress, miner capitulation likely
• Hash price above $0.15 = highly profitable, hash rate will increase
• Hash Ribbon indicator (30-day vs 60-day hashrate MA crossover): when 30d MA crosses below 60d MA = miners capitulating (historically marks bottoms)
• Currently in a historically significant capitulation period. BTC trading BELOW average production cost for first time since November 2022 (when BTC bottomed at ~$15.5k). End-of-capitulation = deep value buy signal.

48. Energy Cost Leading Indicator (Contrarian's Edge)

What: ERCOT electricity prices and natural gas futures as BTC mining cost predictors.

Why nobody else tracks this: Electricity costs directly affect ~30% of US Bitcoin mining (Texas). Rising energy costs = rising mining costs = miner selling pressure in 2-4 weeks.

Sources (free):

• ERCOT real-time pricing: https://www.ercot.com/ (Texas electricity, free)
• CME Henry Hub natural gas futures: https://www.cmegroup.com/ (delayed quotes, free)
• Mining stock prices (MARA, RIOT, CLSK, IREN): Yahoo Finance (free)

Collection frequency: ERCOT hourly. Gas futures daily. Mining stocks daily at close.

Why it matters: Natural gas futures correlate with electricity costs with a 2-4 week lag. Rising gas futures = rising mining costs = selling pressure in 2-4 weeks. Mining stock/BTC ratio declining = market pricing in higher costs ahead.

SECTION N: COMPOSITE SIGNALS (Calculated from Raw Data)

All of these are derived from the collected data above. No additional API calls needed.

1. Master Sentiment Score (0-100)

Inputs: Fear & Greed (Section 5), Reddit sentiment (37), X sentiment (36), funding rates (9), ETF flows (26-27) Output: Single 0-100 score. <20 = extreme fear (contrarian buy). >80 = extreme greed (contrarian sell).

2. Smart Money Score

Inputs: ETF flows (26-27), whale movements (12), exchange outflows (12), IBIT vs rest divergence (26) Output: Directional bias based on institutional and whale behavior.

3. Miner Capitulation Index (Hash Ribbon)

Formula: hash_rate_30d_MA / hash_rate_60d_MA Inputs: Hash rate data (46) Signal: When 30d MA crosses below 60d MA = miners capitulating. Historical buy signal when ribbons compress and cross back up.

4. Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR)

Formula: BTC_market_cap / total_stablecoin_supply Inputs: BTC market cap (1) + stablecoin supply (18) Signal: Low SSR = lots of stablecoin "dry powder" available to buy BTC. High SSR = stablecoins exhausted relative to BTC valuation.

5. Leverage Ratio

Formula: total_open_interest / total_market_cap Inputs: Derivatives exchange OI (9) + global market cap (3) Signal: Ratio >3% = overleveraged, liquidation cascade risk elevated.

6. Polymarket Liquidity Score

Formula: USDC_on_polygon_change_7d / total_USDC_polygon * 100 Inputs: Stablecoin chains data (18) + Polygon USDC (45) Signal: Positive = growing platform liquidity = better execution. Negative = shrinking = wider spreads.

7. Risk Regime Classifier

Inputs: BTC-Nasdaq correlation (32), VIX level (32), DXY direction (32), Fear & Greed (5), funding rates (9) Output: RISK_ON / RISK_OFF / DECORRELATED

Logic:

• RISK_ON: BTC-Nasdaq corr >0.5, VIX <20, DXY falling, F&G >50, funding positive
• RISK_OFF: VIX >25, DXY rising, F&G <30, funding negative
• DECORRELATED: BTC-Nasdaq corr <0.3 (crypto trading on own narrative)

8. NUPL Approximation (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)

Formula: (market_cap - realized_cap_proxy) / market_cap Realized cap proxy: 200d moving average price * circulating supply Signal: NUPL >0.75 = euphoria (sell zone). NUPL <0 = capitulation (buy zone).

9. Funding-Weighted Sentiment

Formula: Volume-weighted average funding rate across all exchanges Inputs: Perp funding from all exchanges (9) Signal: Single number capturing directional leverage bias across all venues.

10. ETF Flow Momentum

Formula: 5-day rolling sum of net ETF flows / BTC daily volume Inputs: ETF flows (26) + BTC volume (1) Signal: When ETF buying exceeds 5% of daily BTC volume = strong demand pressure. Negative = distribution.

CRITICAL ALERTS (Real-Time Monitoring)

These conditions trigger immediate Telegram alerts to EDGE TEAM:

BUILD PRIORITY

Week 1 — Core Price + Derivatives ($0)

1. CoinGecko spot prices (Section 1) — every 5 min, top 50 coins
2. Deribit options/futures/DVOL (Sections 6-8) — the crypto derivatives goldmine
3. Kalshi + Polymarket crypto scrapers (Sections 28-29) — trading venues come first
4. Coinglass liquidations + multi-exchange funding (Sections 9-10) — cascade detection
5. Fear & Greed Index (Section 5) — contrarian baseline
6. Stablecoin peg monitoring (Section 17) — Polymarket existential risk
7. Composite signals 1-5 — master sentiment, smart money, hash ribbon, SSR, leverage ratio

Week 2 — On-Chain + Institutional ($0)

8. Exchange flows / DIY Nansen (Section 12) — whale tracking
9. Dormant wallet monitoring (Section 13) — government/Gox wallets
10. DeFi TVL + lending rates (Sections 22-24) — the crypto yield curve
11. ETF flows BTC + ETH (Sections 26-27) — institutional signal
12. Polygon network health + USDC supply (Sections 44-45) — Polymarket infra
13. Binary probability calculator (Section 31) — the bridge
14. Composite signals 6-8 — Polymarket liquidity, risk regime, NUPL

Week 3 — Sentiment + Risk + Polish ($0)

15. Reddit/X sentiment (Sections 36-37) — crowd positioning
16. GitHub developer activity (Section 39) — fundamental health
17. NFT floor prices (Section 40) — altcoin leading indicator
18. Exchange health + cross-exchange spreads (Sections 33-35) — canary signals
19. SEC/CFTC regulatory tracking (Section 42) — binary event risk
20. Mining metrics + hash price (Sections 46-47) — supply side
21. Macro correlations (Section 32) — regime classification
22. Composite signals 9-10 — funding-weighted sentiment, ETF momentum
23. Alert system for all CRITICAL thresholds

Month 2+ (Optional, $0-30)

24. Polymarket on-chain intelligence / UMA oracle monitor (Section 30)
25. Energy cost leading indicator (Section 48) — ERCOT/gas futures
26. USDT-to-USDC rotation tracking (Section 19) — composition shifts
27. Google Trends (Section 38), news RSS (Section 41), global regulatory (Section 43)
28. CoinGecko Pro upgrade (if rate limits become a problem)
29. Glassnode free tier for supplemental on-chain data

COLLECTION SCHEDULE SUMMARY

API KEYS NEEDED (All Free)

ESTIMATED API CALLS PER DAY

STORAGE ESTIMATES

Database: SQLite, single file at /home/ubuntu/edgeclaw/data/db/crypto-desk.db Retention: 90 days rolling for high-frequency data (2-15 min). 1 year for daily data. Nightly cleanup prunes old rows. Indexes: timestamp + coin/symbol composite on all price tables.

COST SUMMARY

CROSS-DESK SYNERGIES